Looking at the Kings schedule in terms of difficulty

[King in England]

So, it's been quiet at work recently. To pass the time, I thought it would be fun to put together a copy of the Kings schedule, whilst trying to predict the difficulty of each game. I'm now thinking I can use this spreadsheet to help try and predict how the Kings will fair week to week.

Now, I've had trouble uploading the document to the site, so I'm having to settle with a screenshot:



As you can see, I've graded the teams on the right on a scale of 1-5 (1 being easiest, 5 being hardest). I'm sure some of you will disagree with some of the grades, but hopefully I'm in the right ballpark. For instance, now that we're playing Atlanta tomorrow, I'm thinking that I might have been harsh when rating them as a 2. Anyway, the real reason I wanted to share this, was to give a general idea of how difficult this formula rated the schedule, rather than discuss the details of who's better than who.

I've also added a couple of modifiers to account for games away from home and 2nd nights of back-to-backs, as I thought they were important factors in the difficulty rating.

So if we take all of the greenish colours as wins, then I'm predicting we go 3-1 this week with the loss coming at Miami on Tuesday. It's interesting that that this model has us jumping out to a blistering 7-4 start before falling back to 7-7.

 

[lwc]

So, it's been quiet at work recently. To pass the time, I thought it would be fun to put together a copy of the Kings schedule, whilst trying to predict the difficulty of each game. I'm now thinking I can use this spreadsheet to help try and predict how the Kings will fair week to week.

Now, I've had trouble uploading the document to the site, so I'm having to settle with a screenshot:

View attachment 5813

As you can see, I've graded the teams on the right on a scale of 1-5 (1 being easiest, 5 being hardest). I'm sure some of you will disagree with some of the grades, but hopefully I'm in the right ballpark. For instance, now that we're playing Atlanta tomorrow, I'm thinking that I might have been harsh when rating them as a 2. Anyway, the real reason I wanted to share this, was to give a general idea of how difficult this formula rated the schedule, rather than discuss the details of who's better than who.

I've also added a couple of modifiers to account for games away from home and 2nd nights of back-to-backs, as I thought they were important factors in the difficulty rating.

So if we take all of the greenish colours as wins, then I'm predicting we go 3-1 this week with the loss coming at Miami on Tuesday. It's interesting that that this model has us jumping out to a blistering 7-4 start before falling back to 7-7.

Nice work. I'd love a copy of this if you're wiling the share it.

 

[King in England]

Nice work. I'd love a copy of this if you're wiling the share it.

Of course, I'm happy to share it with whoever. I just have to work out how I can send it to you....

 

[Gilles]

So, it's been quiet at work recently. To pass the time, I thought it would be fun to put together a copy of the Kings schedule, whilst trying to predict the difficulty of each game. I'm now thinking I can use this spreadsheet to help try and predict how the Kings will fair week to week.

Now, I've had trouble uploading the document to the site, so I'm having to settle with a screenshot:

View attachment 5813

As you can see, I've graded the teams on the right on a scale of 1-5 (1 being easiest, 5 being hardest). I'm sure some of you will disagree with some of the grades, but hopefully I'm in the right ballpark. For instance, now that we're playing Atlanta tomorrow, I'm thinking that I might have been harsh when rating them as a 2. Anyway, the real reason I wanted to share this, was to give a general idea of how difficult this formula rated the schedule, rather than discuss the details of who's better than who.

I've also added a couple of modifiers to account for games away from home and 2nd nights of back-to-backs, as I thought they were important factors in the difficulty rating.

So if we take all of the greenish colours as wins, then I'm predicting we go 3-1 this week with the loss coming at Miami on Tuesday. It's interesting that that this model has us jumping out to a blistering 7-4 start before falling back to 7-7.

As a very rough estimate it works fine, but as in many cases context is the king. As an example series with Toronto:

• away game on Nov 6 looks a sure loss: 5th game in 7 days of east coast trip, b-to-b, travel Milwaukee-Toronto AND early start, while for Raptors it will be second game in 4 days at home. I mean, if Kings pull away that game - that's second round of PO level
• home game on Nov 20 has different outlook: Toronto will have 4th game in 6 days, after facing Cavs in Cleveland, hosting Warriors and making a stop in Denver (2 high emotionally draining games and then a physically taxing one), while Kings will have 3rd game of 5 day home stand (plus 4 days rest after playing in Portland on 11th).

Actually after returning from Portland Kings will have 2 weeks at home with only 5 games - I expect them to look improved offensively by the time, next east coast trip starts on Nov 27.