[Game] Kings @ Nets- 4/7/2024 - 4:30PM PDT/7:30PM EDT
- Thread starter QWERTYLICIOUS
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You do realize that "hanging by their fingernails for a play-in spot" does also require the team in 11th place (Houston) to still have a chance to catch up and grab either that 9th or 10th spot, right?
And you do also realize that by the Rockets losing their last game, the Kings are now guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament, right?
Which also means that the best Houston can do is to knock the Warriors out of the play-in, and grab that 10th and final spot (Houston is mathematically eliminated from finishing any better than 10th).
I wouldn't call it a "must win" in terms of securing a play-in game, as we've already done so. I would, however, call it a "must win" in terms of either maintaining our current position, or moving up, and guaranteeing us AT LEAST a home game in the play-in tournament, even if we lose the opportunity to grab the 7th seed. ***(Note: If this paragraph was what you actually meant by your comments, then, yes, I agree with you...
)***
So, yes, ideally, I'd like for us to be able to move up into 8th, so if we do end up dropping that 7/8 match for the 7th seed, we still host the winner of 9/10 for that 8th seed. If we end up in 9th or 10th, I am not sure how I would feel about our chances of going out on the road and getting it done.
And you do also realize that by the Rockets losing their last game, the Kings are now guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament, right?
Which also means that the best Houston can do is to knock the Warriors out of the play-in, and grab that 10th and final spot (Houston is mathematically eliminated from finishing any better than 10th).
I wouldn't call it a "must win" in terms of securing a play-in game, as we've already done so. I would, however, call it a "must win" in terms of either maintaining our current position, or moving up, and guaranteeing us AT LEAST a home game in the play-in tournament, even if we lose the opportunity to grab the 7th seed. ***(Note: If this paragraph was what you actually meant by your comments, then, yes, I agree with you...
)***So, yes, ideally, I'd like for us to be able to move up into 8th, so if we do end up dropping that 7/8 match for the 7th seed, we still host the winner of 9/10 for that 8th seed. If we end up in 9th or 10th, I am not sure how I would feel about our chances of going out on the road and getting it done.
At this point we should be realisticly shooting for 7/8. I don’t think a road game will hurt our chances since we get a 2nd shot at home, and we play just as good on the road tbh. A 9/10 however, I don’t like our chances against a one and your out against the warriors even at home. A warriors matchup is where we reallly miss Monk.
You do realize that "hanging by their fingernails for a play-in spot" does also require the team in 11th place (Houston) to still have a chance to catch up and grab either that 9th or 10th spot, right?
And you do also realize that by the Rockets losing their last game, the Kings are now guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament, right?
Which also means that the best Houston can do is to knock the Warriors out of the play-in, and grab that 10th and final spot (Houston is mathematically eliminated from finishing any better than 10th).
I wouldn't call it a "must win" in terms of securing a play-in game, as we've already done so. I would, however, call it a "must win" in terms of either maintaining our current position, or moving up, and guaranteeing us AT LEAST a home game in the play-in tournament, even if we lose the opportunity to grab the 7th seed. ***(Note: If this paragraph was what you actually meant by your comments, then, yes, I agree with you...)***
So, yes, ideally, I'd like for us to be able to move up into 8th, so if we do end up dropping that 7/8 match for the 7th seed, we still host the winner of 9/10 for that 8th seed. If we end up in 9th or 10th, I am not sure how I would feel about our chances of going out on the road and getting it done.
And you do also realize that by the Rockets losing their last game, the Kings are now guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament, right?
Which also means that the best Houston can do is to knock the Warriors out of the play-in, and grab that 10th and final spot (Houston is mathematically eliminated from finishing any better than 10th).
I wouldn't call it a "must win" in terms of securing a play-in game, as we've already done so. I would, however, call it a "must win" in terms of either maintaining our current position, or moving up, and guaranteeing us AT LEAST a home game in the play-in tournament, even if we lose the opportunity to grab the 7th seed. ***(Note: If this paragraph was what you actually meant by your comments, then, yes, I agree with you...
)***So, yes, ideally, I'd like for us to be able to move up into 8th, so if we do end up dropping that 7/8 match for the 7th seed, we still host the winner of 9/10 for that 8th seed. If we end up in 9th or 10th, I am not sure how I would feel about our chances of going out on the road and getting it done.
Sad reality of it, is that even if the kings do turn it on it probably won't be enough. Not only do they have to go 4-1 at the minimum, but it will require the pelicans to go 2-3 and the suns to either go 2-3 or 1-4 depending on the tie breaker. I mean it's not impossible, but as fans we like to believe in miracles. I'd be content to just remain 7th or 8th seed at this point.
It's too soon and too hard to call. Suns have the most difficult schedule. Today they host Pels, then Clippers and finish the season with the 3 road games against Clippers, us and Minny.
Pels play us on the road.
Lakers have one home game left - against Minny. They beat Minny first time in LA, but Wolves played without Gobert and KAT.
We are favorites in today's game and will be favorites in last 3 games of the season at home. All options to finish from 2-3 to 5-0 are on the table. We play one game and look around. We play second game - and look around. 6th place is not a miracle, but a possibility. It's just too sad that we wasted so many games so far.
Pels play us on the road.
Lakers have one home game left - against Minny. They beat Minny first time in LA, but Wolves played without Gobert and KAT.
We are favorites in today's game and will be favorites in last 3 games of the season at home. All options to finish from 2-3 to 5-0 are on the table. We play one game and look around. We play second game - and look around. 6th place is not a miracle, but a possibility. It's just too sad that we wasted so many games so far.
it’s not ideal but the reality is even if doesn’t we can still trade the player we draft and several first rounders and second rounders. The other thing is if us fans think we are going package 4 first round picks for a player we will need to get in line because there are several teams that have more picks and young players to trade in a potential deal. A lot of uncertainty for this this offseason that’s for sure
I suppose an argument could be made as follows:
Our trajectory starting in the '22-'23 season has been eerily similar to our trajectory starting in the '98-'99 season. New (veteran, 52-year-old) coach, fresh controversial trade of star guard for star big man, break playoff drought, get bounced in first round. With only minor roster changes, tiny step backwards in year 2.
What happened in the offseason between year 2 and year 3 back then? We had the #16 pick in a weak draft that turned out to have no true star (Kenyon Martin derailed by injury) and nailed it, grabbing Hedo as a major rotation piece. We traded a poor fit in Corliss for a good fit/team player/defensive upgrade in Christie. And we were much better the next year, on the verge of contention and sitting with the 25th pick.
If we can follow this pattern this offseason (get the 13th/14th pick in a weak draft, make one trade for a team upgrade, convey a 25+ pick next year), are we better off going forward than if we convey the pick this year, make a similar trade, improve next year and pick in the 20s range?
Really, the competing factors here going forward are
1) Mid-teens pick with an extra year of NBA experience vs. Early-20s pick a year later
and
2) All FRPs available for trade this summer vs FRPs encumbered until 2028
I don't know how to gauge which of those scenarios is more valuable to us.
Our trajectory starting in the '22-'23 season has been eerily similar to our trajectory starting in the '98-'99 season. New (veteran, 52-year-old) coach, fresh controversial trade of star guard for star big man, break playoff drought, get bounced in first round. With only minor roster changes, tiny step backwards in year 2.
What happened in the offseason between year 2 and year 3 back then? We had the #16 pick in a weak draft that turned out to have no true star (Kenyon Martin derailed by injury) and nailed it, grabbing Hedo as a major rotation piece. We traded a poor fit in Corliss for a good fit/team player/defensive upgrade in Christie. And we were much better the next year, on the verge of contention and sitting with the 25th pick.
If we can follow this pattern this offseason (get the 13th/14th pick in a weak draft, make one trade for a team upgrade, convey a 25+ pick next year), are we better off going forward than if we convey the pick this year, make a similar trade, improve next year and pick in the 20s range?
Really, the competing factors here going forward are
1) Mid-teens pick with an extra year of NBA experience vs. Early-20s pick a year later
and
2) All FRPs available for trade this summer vs FRPs encumbered until 2028
I don't know how to gauge which of those scenarios is more valuable to us.
Because of the Stepien Rule and the fact that trying to make trades almost always seems to deal in trading picks. Hell we had to trade a pick last year to get rid of Richaun.
All that said, I have been saying what Cap said above a lot - particularly in trying to keep years 2 and 3 in focus over a multi-year project vs. trying to throw all your chips in and once and only having a one or two season window. Frankly, a lot of the Kings biggest problems - holding home court, getting the wrong side of the ref's whistle constantly - those are things that are more likely that the slow approach will pay off for anyways.
And Cap has a good point about Hedo. And to be real - this draft is "bad" because there is nobody that has been identified as being worth tanking for. If you go back to what is thought of the worst draft on that grounds - no clear #1, and no reason to tank - I think you get to 2013, where Giannis was picked at 15.
On the flip side of that - when you look back at Vlade's tenure - so many of his bad moves came as a direct result of having our #1 pick tied up by what seemed like a very minor move when we traded Omri Casspi and a lottery protected first for JJ Hickson. This is again compounded by the fact that most people seem ready to move on from Huerter (who at minimum is a Monk leaving in FA insurance policy) so like the Hickson trade our future flexibility would potentially be hampered by a guy no longer with the club if we wind up trading Kev in the summer.
All that said, I have been saying what Cap said above a lot - particularly in trying to keep years 2 and 3 in focus over a multi-year project vs. trying to throw all your chips in and once and only having a one or two season window. Frankly, a lot of the Kings biggest problems - holding home court, getting the wrong side of the ref's whistle constantly - those are things that are more likely that the slow approach will pay off for anyways.
And Cap has a good point about Hedo. And to be real - this draft is "bad" because there is nobody that has been identified as being worth tanking for. If you go back to what is thought of the worst draft on that grounds - no clear #1, and no reason to tank - I think you get to 2013, where Giannis was picked at 15.
On the flip side of that - when you look back at Vlade's tenure - so many of his bad moves came as a direct result of having our #1 pick tied up by what seemed like a very minor move when we traded Omri Casspi and a lottery protected first for JJ Hickson. This is again compounded by the fact that most people seem ready to move on from Huerter (who at minimum is a Monk leaving in FA insurance policy) so like the Hickson trade our future flexibility would potentially be hampered by a guy no longer with the club if we wind up trading Kev in the summer.
My mistake above on 11-14 - actually ONE of the 7/8 seeds in the East has to make the playoffs, so at most one East play-in loser can finish ahead of us. If we finish 9 or 10, and one of the 7/8 West seeds falls out, that would also bump us up one. If we finish in 7/8, then it's either 13/14, and 14 most likely.
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