How can this be?
- Thread starter DHR
- Start date
The short answer is not to take the Trade Machine "Hollinger Analysis" seriously at all.
The long answer is to look at what the "Hollinger Analysis" does, and the graphic you posted actually says: "...based on the PER of the players in each team's post-trade rotation." The first problem there is that it uses PER. I think that most analytically-minded folks would cringe at PER being used for anything beyond generic offensive contribution these days. That said, Cousins' and Harden's PERs are pretty similar this year - Harden has him by a bit but not much. The second problem of course is the post-trade rotation. We don't know how ESPN is projecting post-trade rotation, but we can easily point out that the Rockets have very little option at the 2-guard other than James Harden. Take him out of the mix and their guard rotation probably looks pretty bad in the ESPN rankings. Likewise, the Rockets already have decent options in Howard, Capela, and Jones in the frontcourt. Jam Cousins in there and people lose minutes. And if ESPN is completely dumb about how their computer algorithm does it, they may be severely limiting Howard's C minutes in favor of putting Cousins at full-time C, making the move nearly lateral (except for the loss of Harden) in their estimate. On the other hand, we gain in that "calculation" because our SG is SO bad, while Kosta and Willie are actually OK at C in terms of PER and would presumably make the drop off not so bad.
But after typing all that, I'd still just go with the short answer.
The long answer is to look at what the "Hollinger Analysis" does, and the graphic you posted actually says: "...based on the PER of the players in each team's post-trade rotation." The first problem there is that it uses PER. I think that most analytically-minded folks would cringe at PER being used for anything beyond generic offensive contribution these days. That said, Cousins' and Harden's PERs are pretty similar this year - Harden has him by a bit but not much. The second problem of course is the post-trade rotation. We don't know how ESPN is projecting post-trade rotation, but we can easily point out that the Rockets have very little option at the 2-guard other than James Harden. Take him out of the mix and their guard rotation probably looks pretty bad in the ESPN rankings. Likewise, the Rockets already have decent options in Howard, Capela, and Jones in the frontcourt. Jam Cousins in there and people lose minutes. And if ESPN is completely dumb about how their computer algorithm does it, they may be severely limiting Howard's C minutes in favor of putting Cousins at full-time C, making the move nearly lateral (except for the loss of Harden) in their estimate. On the other hand, we gain in that "calculation" because our SG is SO bad, while Kosta and Willie are actually OK at C in terms of PER and would presumably make the drop off not so bad.
But after typing all that, I'd still just go with the short answer.