Getting ready for the big jump

jcassio

jcassio

Starter
We've had the annual "To tank or not" discussion. But I am not a fan of tanking the way that some Kingsfans are. The closest I can get to advocating tanking is to craft the roster and coaching staff so that your goal of developing young talent is more important than favoring role players who might squeeze out a handful of wins at the cost of dropping several spots in the lottery.

So here are my three goals to finish this season in a way that makes this our last losing season and final trip to the lottery before making a big jump to respectability next season:

First, a coaching change is a must. Walton is not the guy. But it's debateable when the change should come. Now or after the playoffs? My only criteria is that the next coach be our coach for the next 5 years, and not a try-out for someone McNair likes but doesn't have confidence in.

Second, we need to be sellers as we head toward the trade deadline. I say we trade, or in the event of a trade failure that we buy-out, all our veterans except for Holmes.* So that includes:
Barnes
Bjelica
Hield
Joseph
Parker
Whiteside

Third, the marching orders for the coaching staff are to develop the young guys by giving them real NBA experience. If the experience of losing most of your games makes you weak and useless, then I would suggest the marching orders have succeeded in the separation of the wheat from the chaff.

* I realize there are some Kingsfans who want to get rid of Holmes. We've never had anybody on our roster who was loved by all, including C-Webb. So I just don't take it all that seriously. As long as we don't overpay Holmes, I want him and the heart and soul that he brings every night.
 
jcassio said:
We've had the annual "To tank or not" discussion. But I am not a fan of tanking the way that some Kingsfans are. The closest I can get to advocating tanking is to craft the roster and coaching staff so that your goal of developing young talent is more important than favoring role players who might squeeze out a handful of wins at the cost of dropping several spots in the lottery.

So here are my three goals to finish this season in a way that makes this our last losing season and final trip to the lottery before making a big jump to respectability next season:

First, a coaching change is a must. Walton is not the guy. But it's debateable when the change should come. Now or after the playoffs? My only criteria is that the next coach be our coach for the next 5 years, and not a try-out for someone McNair likes but doesn't have confidence in.

Second, we need to be sellers as we head toward the trade deadline. I say we trade, or in the event of a trade failure that we buy-out, all our veterans except for Holmes.* So that includes:
Barnes
Bjelica
Hield
Joseph
Parker
Whiteside

Third, the marching orders for the coaching staff are to develop the young guys by giving them real NBA experience. If the experience of losing most of your games makes you weak and useless, then I would suggest the marching orders have succeeded in the separation of the wheat from the chaff.

* I realize there are some Kingsfans who want to get rid of Holmes. We've never had anybody on our roster who was loved by all, including C-Webb. So I just don't take it all that seriously. As long as we don't overpay Holmes, I want him and the heart and soul that he brings every night.
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Fair enough. I like that you are thinking out of the box.

Keeping Luke around is simply a financial move (why pay 2 Coaches when you are going to suck anyway) decided by Vivek...otherwise he would be gone.
 
jcassio said:
We've had the annual "To tank or not" discussion. But I am not a fan of tanking the way that some Kingsfans are. The closest I can get to advocating tanking is to craft the roster and coaching staff so that your goal of developing young talent is more important than favoring role players who might squeeze out a handful of wins at the cost of dropping several spots in the lottery.

So here are my three goals to finish this season in a way that makes this our last losing season and final trip to the lottery before making a big jump to respectability next season:

First, a coaching change is a must. Walton is not the guy. But it's debateable when the change should come. Now or after the playoffs? My only criteria is that the next coach be our coach for the next 5 years, and not a try-out for someone McNair likes but doesn't have confidence in.

Second, we need to be sellers as we head toward the trade deadline. I say we trade, or in the event of a trade failure that we buy-out, all our veterans except for Holmes.* So that includes:
Barnes
Bjelica
Hield
Joseph
Parker
Whiteside

Third, the marching orders for the coaching staff are to develop the young guys by giving them real NBA experience. If the experience of losing most of your games makes you weak and useless, then I would suggest the marching orders have succeeded in the separation of the wheat from the chaff.

* I realize there are some Kingsfans who want to get rid of Holmes. We've never had anybody on our roster who was loved by all, including C-Webb. So I just don't take it all that seriously. As long as we don't overpay Holmes, I want him and the heart and soul that he brings every night.
Click to expand...

I like Holmes, I hope he's back next season in some kind of role, but he's also an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year (as are Bjelica, Parker, and Whiteside) so even if we do trade him we can still sign him again in the off-season. As an expiring contract he might actually have more value at the trade deadline than he would with a long-term contract since he can add depth up front for some playoff team without impacting their bottom line next season. I doubt that gets you more than a second round pick but maybe we could build a package around multiple players and target a team with injury issues?

Here's the contract breakdowns for this year's squad: Contracts.

Barnes and Hield are the only significant salary commitments on the books aside from Fox. Joseph has one more year left somehow but it's reportedly only partially-guaranteed up to $2.4 million so he could be a buy-out candidate.

I'm not sure who you have in mind when you're advocating for playing the young guys though. Fox, Haliburton, and Bagley are already playing a lot. Jeffries is too now that's healthy again. Metu is injured and Woodard and Ramsey are getting more minutes in the G League than they would be on the Kings, which is probably better for them anyway. Four guys is not a rotation. If we cut or trade all of those vets we need to bring back someone to fill their spots in the rotation and I don't think teams are lining up to trade us promising young players for our veteran cast offs. It's uncomfortable but I don't think there's much else to do right now but wait and watch. With the Covid situation getting a new coach in here mid-season is unlikely.

I also think the players know what the deal is and that's why they look so disinterested. Lost season playing for a lame duck coach with no fans in the building and confined to hotel rooms on the road.... I can hardly blame them for showing up just to punch the clock at this point.
 
hrdboild said:
I like Holmes, I hope he's back next season in some kind of role, but he's also an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year (as are Bjelica, Parker, and Whiteside) so even if we do trade him we can still sign him again in the off-season. As an expiring contract he might actually have more value at the trade deadline than he would with a long-term contract since he can add depth up front for some playoff team without impacting their bottom line next season. I doubt that gets you more than a second round pick but maybe we could build a package around multiple players and target a team with injury issues?

Here's the contract breakdowns for this year's squad: Contracts.

Barnes and Hield are the only significant salary commitments on the books aside from Fox. Joseph has one more year left somehow but it's reportedlyonly partially-guaranteed up to $2.4 million so he could be a buy-out candidate.

I'm not sure who you have in mind when you're advocating for playing the young guys though. Fox, Haliburton, and Bagley are already playing a lot. Jeffries is too now that's healthy again. Metu is injured and Woodard and Ramsey are getting more minutes in the G League than they would be on the Kings, which is probably better for them anyway. Four guys is not a rotation. If we cut or trade all of those vets we need to bring back someone to fill their spots in the rotation and I don't think teams are lining up to trade us promising young players for our veteran cast offs. It's uncomfortable but I don't think there's much else to do right now but wait and watch. With the Covid situation getting a new coach in here mid-season is unlikely.

I also think the players know what the deal is and that's why they look so disinterested. Lost season playing for a lame duck coach with no fans in the building and confined to hotel rooms on the road.... I can hardly blame them for showing up just to punch the clock at this point.
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It's true that two of the "young guys" I want us to develop are hurt right now (Woodard and Metu), but we're only at the halfway point - i.e. they'll be back before you know it.
The "young guys" (as I see it) are Fox, Guy, Haliburton, Ramsey, James, Jeffries, Woodard, Bagley, Pelle and Metu. Plus give Holmes minutes to continue his development. Add to that any young talent that we get back from unloading our vets that might have a glimmer of a chance. And isn't it likely that McNair has his eyes on one or two players that are unsigned at the moment? I also wouldn't mind having one or two vets on the bench to serve as mentors.
 
jcassio said:
It's true that two of the "young guys" I want us to develop are hurt right now (Woodard and Metu), but we're only at the halfway point - i.e. they'll be back before you know it.
The "young guys" (as I see it) are Fox, Guy, Haliburton, Ramsey, James, Jeffries, Woodard, Bagley, Pelle and Metu. Plus give Holmes minutes to continue his development. Add to that any young talent that we get back from unloading our vets that might have a glimmer of a chance. And isn't it likely that McNair has his eyes on one or two players that are unsigned at the moment? I also wouldn't mind having one or two vets on the bench to serve as mentors.
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Eh, not everyone on an NBA bench is long for the league. It's possible we have a hidden gem or two in there somewhere but I don't think we're really going to know until we have a better coach in place who will actually put them in a position to succeed. We've had wave after wave of young guys here with fans begging us to play them and more often they end up getting cut and finish out their careers overseas. I think the guys we need to play are already playing. There just aren't any easy answers this year. Maybe there never are. Putting together a talented roster is only half the battle. Those players need to stay at peak performance for 5 months and that's not just going to happen on it's own absent leadership.
 
I believe we have the 6th easiest schedule for the 2nd half but idk, can they figure out how to play defense?
 
EIM86 said:
I believe we have the 6th easiest schedule for the 2nd half but idk, can they figure out how to play defense?
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Fox, Hali, James, Jeffries, Barnes, Holmes and Whiteside give you 7 Kings who can play pretty good defense. (Admittedly Fox is inconsistent with his D, but can be pretty special when he turns it on.)
The weak links in the chain are Hield and Bagley. Which means that as long as Walton is the coach, you're almost always going to have two weak links on the floor at any one time. Three if you count Cojo who is not a good defender anymore - despite what Walton seems to think.
 
jcassio said:
Fox, Hali, James, Jeffries, Barnes, Holmes and Whiteside give you 7 Kings who can play pretty good defense. (Admittedly Fox is inconsistent with his D, but can be pretty special when he turns it on.)
The weak links in the chain are Hield and Bagley. Which means that as long as Walton is the coach, you're almost always going to have two weak links on the floor at any one time. Three if you count Cojo who is not a good defender anymore - despite what Walton seems to think.
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I think athletically and effort wise, Bagley in particular still has the solid tools to be an effective defender. he just lacks the fundamentals at this point to really do anything on that end though which is why I still want a strong defensive coach to take over the team even though a D’Antoni/Gentry style PnR attacking offense makes so much sense for this roster. When we were mostly playing man-schemes or asking Bagley to do something ridiculous like guard Embiid by himself, he’s actually held his own while he’s had mountains of trouble maintaining his focus in the switch-heavy/shade drop system Luke is so enamored with.
 
Tetsujin said:
I think athletically and effort wise, Bagley in particular still has the solid tools to be an effective defender. he just lacks the fundamentals at this point to really do anything on that end though which is why I still want a strong defensive coach to take over the team even though a D’Antoni/Gentry style PnR attacking offense makes so much sense for this roster. When we were mostly playing man-schemes or asking Bagley to do something ridiculous like guard Embiid by himself, he’s actually held his own while he’s had mountains of trouble maintaining his focus in the switch-heavy/shade drop system Luke is so enamored with.
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Bagley has shown himself to be at worse, an average man defender. He struggles playing team defense. You can almost see him thinking when it comes to 50/50 plays. The moment you take to think usually will cost you the play. However, last year he wasn't aware o the choice (progress).
I think his biggest problem defensively is that he wad coached by his Dad and never really asked to play organized defense. The only way to improve is by playing (experience) & then going over film to learn from your mistakes.

The good news is that her seems willing to put in the work to improve. Sean Cunningham recently said that Bagley & Buddy are two of the hardest workers on the team (locked on Kings podcast). Hopefully that leads to good things in the future.
 
The chances of a coach lasting 5 years in Sactown is almost nil.
Any jump that happens will not be very big.
 
ppine said:
The chances of a coach lasting 5 years in Sactown is almost nil.
Any jump that happens will not be very big.
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The Kings have been in transition for too long. This is why this is a dangerous situation to be in. They finally have a team with depth that has been built over a few years with some sort of intentions. Cleary so since that was reportedly why Vlade went with Bagley over Luka. When you do that you have to pick a coach based on the players or a system, or pick a coach with the secondary GM duties. Vivek has done almost everything possible backwards from day 1 starting with hiring a coach then a GM. And that's put him out of rhythm of sorts ever since. He's also never committed to the clean sweep. He sits in the middle of the road hoping traffic keeps swerving around him.
 
ShastaKingsFan said:
Yet, Michael Malone will last at least 5 years in Denver....and probably several more. Go figure
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Yeah, but we have to watch that one. He's dangerously teetering on that line of having a team that may have overblown their own youth build within their compete now build and left their coach with less tools to work with as a result. If a team like that maxes out the first thing is looking for a new head coaching voice because you're limited in what you can do unless you make blockbuster deals and then you're messing with chemistry. In terms of the Kings it was obvious he was the only positive linking to decision making.
 
SacTownKid said:
Yeah, but we have to watch that one. He's dangerously teetering on that line of having a team that may have overblown their own youth build within their compete now build and left their coach with less tools to work with as a result. If a team like that maxes out the first thing is looking for a new head coaching voice because you're limited in what you can do unless you make blockbuster deals and then you're messing with chemistry. In terms of the Kings it was obvious he was the only positive linking to decision making.
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If they fire him, then they are almost as moronic as Ranadive
 
Tetsujin said:
I think athletically and effort wise, Bagley in particular still has the solid tools to be an effective defender. he just lacks the fundamentals at this point to really do anything on that end though which is why I still want a strong defensive coach to take over the team even though a D’Antoni/Gentry style PnR attacking offense makes so much sense for this roster. When we were mostly playing man-schemes or asking Bagley to do something ridiculous like guard Embiid by himself, he’s actually held his own while he’s had mountains of trouble maintaining his focus in the switch-heavy/shade drop system Luke is so enamored with.
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I’m just not sure Bags has the basketball IQ to be good on defense.
 
sactowndog said:
I’m just not sure Bags has the basketball IQ to be good on defense.
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That's where coaching IQ matters most. Defense in the NBA right now is largely based on length, strength, and foot speed in relation to timing. They've taken so many of the chess move aspects of individual and team defense away that if you have those two things you at least have a shot. And luckily Bagley does have those. It won't mean much if they continue to use an antiquated defensive scheme that relies on help and open perimeter looks from other teams. Also Bagley has to get stronger to play more center.
 
SacTownKid said:
That's where coaching IQ matters most. Defense in the NBA right now is largely based on length, strength, and foot speed in relation to timing. They've taken so many of the chess move aspects of individual and team defense away that if you have those two things you at least have a shot. And luckily Bagley does have those. It won't mean much if they continue to use an antiquated defensive scheme that relies on help and open perimeter looks from other teams. Also Bagley has to get stronger to play more center.
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Yes but complementary to foot speed is anticipation. And good defenders all have it. They don’t just use athletic ability to get to a spot, they have a fundamental understanding of where the offensive player wants to go and they prevent that player from getting to their spot or they get their first a draw a charge or get a block like Smart.

I haven’t seen that from Marvin yet. Granted I think he was severely hampered by only be coached by his dad then being a one and done. It’s like learning to swim by being dropped in the ocean.
 
sactowndog said:
Yes but complementary to foot speed is anticipation. And good defenders all have it. They don’t just use athletic ability to get to a spot, they have a fundamental understanding of where the offensive player wants to go and they prevent that player from getting to their spot or they get their first a draw a charge or get a block like Smart.

I haven’t seen that from Marvin yet. Granted I think he was severely hampered by only be coached by his dad then being a one and done. It’s like learning to swim by being dropped in the ocean.
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Not only was he one & done, but Duke played zone most of the year because none of their guards could stay in front of anyone.
 
If defense was all length, strength and foot speed then Bagley would be an all-star defender.
Defense takes desire first. Good defenders study the opposition. They take away what the other team likes to do. They anticipate moves. They coordinate with their team mates. People get beat and switch and recover. They double team, trap and harass their opponents.

The popularity of the 3 has changed the game. Now that players have perfected the step back 3, covering the whole half court with 5 guys is becoming very difficult. I would like to see more players like Russell, Mutumbo, Wallace, and other great shot blockers and defenders. People like Bowden, Beverly, Pippen that could really play defense.
 
ppine said:
If defense was all length, strength and foot speed then Bagley would be an all-star defender.
Defense takes desire first. Good defenders study the opposition. They take away what the other team likes to do. They anticipate moves. They coordinate with their team mates. People get beat and switch and recover. They double team, trap and harass their opponents.

The popularity of the 3 has changed the game. Now that players have perfected the step back 3, covering the whole half court with 5 guys is becoming very difficult. I would like to see more players like Russell, Mutumbo, Wallace, and other great shot blockers and defenders. People like Bowden, Beverly, Pippen that could really play defense.
Click to expand...

You're totally right, defense isn't all that, but with a lack of defensive rules that allow you to somewhat physically impede the motion of a player either off the ball or on it, it's nearly impossible to have the reaction timing to stop anyone without those athletic abilities. Anticipation is great, but otherwise most of it is going rely on reaching in, slapping down, or recover blocking on players and that's a 50/50 call. If it's your stars doing it you risk losing them on the other side of the ball. Switching is part of the point and also mainly relies on what you are physically. You have to have enough size and agility to cross match. Fox has been scientifically proven to have unusual hand eye coordination and hand speed, but without his wheels he'd be fairly one dimensional and rely on defense that will end up with him in foul trouble the majority of the time. Todays defense is almost all feet.
 
Only good athletes make it to the NBA. Lots of them never excel because they never learn to play defense.
Defense has always been about moving the feet. Good hands make a big difference. Halliburton has great hands on defense.
People have to learn to not leave their feet. They have to learn to only swipe up at the ball. They have to learn how and when to switch.
They need to be able to play a physical style especially against larger opponents.
 
ppine said:
Only good athletes make it to the NBA. Lots of them never excel because they never learn to play defense.
Defense has always been about moving the feet. Good hands make a big difference. Halliburton has great hands on defense.
People have to learn to not leave their feet. They have to learn to only swipe up at the ball. They have to learn how and when to switch.
They need to be able to play a physical style especially against larger opponents.
Click to expand...

But prior to now you had bigs that could take up space, dirty guys like Bowen or Rodman (who was an UNREAL athlete of course) and they played mental defense as much as anything. Those archetypes are gone now. Taking charges, or "flopping" if you will isn't nearly the art form it was. In fact, the latter is basically outlawed now. Learning how to switch doesn't matter if you can't stay in front of who you're switching to. And then it's back to help defense which as we see in Sac, is a losing proposition even when you do it somewhat right but with 4 guards who can't cover vertical or horizonal space effectively.
 
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