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The stretch run for a team to upgrade its roster prior to training camp is here, and there are still a few guys who can help a team hoping to make a championship run. While the big names may be gone, one of these players can make a difference to a team, provided he is the exact type of player the team needs to complete its rotation. GMs like to think of their players as pieces on a chessboard with predictable movements (meaning production) so that a coach can strategize around the strengths and weaknesses of the team. And just because we're heading into mid-September does not mean that additions are no longer meaningful. On Sept. 22, 2005, chess master Pat Riley added one more pawn to his stacked squad, a former star named Gary Payton. He knew that Payton would give him clutch play and veteran experience in a championship drive. Payton did just that against the Mavericks.
So which player of the remaining candidates can be this year's key addition for a future champion?
Bonzi Wells | Kings | SG | 6-5 | 29 years old
"Where in the world will Bonzi go?" has been the biggest question of the latter days of the free-agency period.
In July, he was one of the top guards available, packaging an intriguing combination of low-post scoring and rebounding from the two-guard position. But in September, his most recent team, the Sacramento Kings, pulled its offer off the table and signed John Salmons. Wells was looking for more dollars, which to date no one is offering.
Most insiders now expect Wells to sign a one-year exception for approximately $5 million with the hope of getting a better long-term offer next summer. So how is it that 30 teams, many of which are in need of shooting-guard depth, have not made a decent offer to sign a legitimate starting two-guard?
Last season Wells scored 13.6 ppg on 46 percent shooting and pulled down 7.7 rebounds per game. Yes, 7.7. The Kings' rebounding leader, center Brad Miller, averaged 7.8, so one could argue that Wells was the team's best rebounder. Throw in his 1.81 steals per game, and his .48 blocks a game, and you can see that Wells brought a lot to the table for his position.
Unfortunately for Wells, there was more on the table than just those stats. Start with his 22 percent 3-point shooting last year, the second time in his last four full seasons he failed to break the 30 percent mark. His playmaking for others was poor as well, as shown by his 2.4 turnovers versus just 2.8 assists per game last season. And though his instincts and bursts of speed led to steals and deflections at a good rate, he struggled to guard slashing players or shooters running through screens.
Bonzi is in a pickle for two reasons:
First, his off-court behavior simply scares teams, and he has no one to blame for that but himself. The problems in Portland and Memphis are still haunting him, and GMs remember his banishment two seasons ago from a Grizzlies team that really needed him.
It's hard to ask a GM to bring in someone who is capable of destroying a team's chemistry, even when that player is a proven commodity. Earlier in the season, when fan favorite Peja Stojakovic sat out games with an injury, Wells went public questioning Peja's commitment. League GMs took notice and shook their heads.
After that, though, Wells did his best to be a "team guy." When he sat out a long stretch of games last January and February with a groin injury, he publicly supported his replacement, second-year player Kevin Martin, visibly cheering for Martin from the bench.
But Martin is Bonzi's other problem. While Wells was out, Martin thrived. He averaged 12.3 ppg in January, shooting 52 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range. He was even better in February, scoring 16.6 ppg with 53 percent shooting and 43 percent on 3s.
Consequently, the Kings realized they had a budding star in Martin, who has two years remaining on his rookie contract, and thus they did not need to offer Wells what he was hoping to get.
Still, Bonzi has undeniable talent, his amazing playoff performance against San Antonio, and his overall production over an eight-year career to help him get employment this season. But he has his demons, too, which may lay dormant but are still strong enough to keep this genuine talent off a roster heading into the last few weeks of the offseason.
DerMarr Johnson | Nuggets | G/F | 6-9 | 26 years old It's easy to forget that Johnson was a lottery pick back in 1999 (Atlanta Hawks, No. 6 overall) with a bright future -- a future that was crushed along with Johnson's car in September of 2002 in an accident that kept DJ out of the NBA that entire season and put him on a revolving team plan.
If he signs with a team other than Denver, it will be his fourth team in just six full seasons. No one questions his health anymore, so why can't a 6-9 guard find a home in the NBA?
With all free agents, it is their current team that can best define their value for the rest of the league. A solid offer from the team a player just played for sends a message to the other 29 teams. The lack of such an offer is just as telling.
It is no secret that the Nuggets are in desperate need of a legitimate starting shooting guard to play alongside their franchise guy, Carmelo Anthony. This player needs to be able to catch and shoot from deep -- and, if possible, play the role of the team's best perimeter defender to free 'Melo from having to expend energy on defense.
These are attributes Johnson has exhibited in Denver, especially when he had a chance to play decent minutes. Two seasons ago, when Denver finished the season with a flourish, Johnson was starting and putting up solid numbers: 35 starts at shooting guard, 54 percent shooting from the field and 42 percent on 3s, and 8.5 points per game in only 21 minutes.
His efficiency dropped last season in his 19 starts at guard -- he scored 7.3 ppg in 22 minutes but shot only 43.4 percent (31.7 percent on 3-pointers). Still, NBA players think DJ can play and shoot, and he is an excellent defender on the ball, using his crazy length and size to engulf most opposing two-guards who try to take him off the dribble.
So what's the problem?
Now we get to why he is still on the market. If Denver is not anxious to keep him when it sorely needs a player like him, how can Johnson expect another team to take a chance on his potential? Three teams have gambled on him thus far in his career, and none has been rewarded.
Johnson has always been a "now you see him, now you don't" type of player. He'll have practices and games that make teams think, "Wow, that kid has lottery talent" -- which is why the Hawks took him when they did.
But then he'll go three days in a row accomplishing little. And Denver coach George Karl does not play that. Karl is classic old school when it comes to a player earning respect and a permanent spot in the rotation. Those who practice well and consistently perform get in the rotation. The others are left hoping for minutes here and there.
Johnson has other issues that hurt him as well. He really struggles chasing shooters through screens, often standing too upright (a position he is often in) and not handling screens with toughness and balance. Toughness is the one key ingredient that Karl is always looking for, and Denver's staff simply did not believe Johnson showed enough of it in practice or games to merit serious rotation minutes.
So here's the Catch-22: When he's starting and playing decent minutes, he's a mildly productive player. Coming off the bench is a struggle for him, yet teams see him as a backup guard/forward. That's a bad combination.
But it is likely that Denver saw enough good days out of him to bring him back one more time. Now that the Nuggets have streamlined their front office, look for them to get DJ back in the fold.
Keith Van Horn | Mavericks | F | 6-10 | 30 years old Van Horn is coming off his first season of averaging less than 10 points per game (he averaged 8.9 ppg) in his 13-year career. Almost every other statistic was down from the year before as well, including his career-low 42.4 percent shooting from the field.
On top of that, there are now questions about his wheels and his desire to keep playing. He made over $15 million last year alone -- he could easily go home to his wife and four children and no one would question him for it.
So why do I think we'll be hearing from Van Horn again, though perhaps not right away?
I think teams may be hesitant to pull the trigger and bring him in for fear that he'll not amount to much, and that they'd be better off with someone younger and more dependable (in terms of health). But when the season rolls into 2007, and teams are desperate for bigs who can shoot and know how to play, there is one man to whom they will all turn. Yep, Mr. Van Horn. And he knows that, too.
So why go through training camp and risk playing for a team heading nowhere when you can wait for a team who is a skilled big man away from contending for a title?
Remember, even playing spot minutes for the ultra-talented Mavs, Van Horn scored 9.7 ppg before a slew of leg injuries and a broken right hand in April lowered his overall numbers. In his five healthy months, Van Horn shot better than 33 percent from 3-point range in four of them, including a torrid 52 percent in January -- and the Mavericks went 13-2 that month.
He has become one of the NBA's top 3-point shooters from the frontcourt, a valuable asset come playoff time. But he is not needed in Dallas because the Mavs are overloaded with talent, deeper at every position than almost any other team in the NBA.
Two years ago, an older and slower Christian Laettner helped his Miami Heat team get to the Eastern Conference finals by making big shots off the bench. Clearly, if Van Horn has the will to continue, he'll be able to do at least that. And if the right team comes calling, dangling the chance at a ring, it's hard to imagine a player saying no to that. Oh, and the $1 million-plus they'll be offering will help, too.
The stretch run for a team to upgrade its roster prior to training camp is here, and there are still a few guys who can help a team hoping to make a championship run. While the big names may be gone, one of these players can make a difference to a team, provided he is the exact type of player the team needs to complete its rotation. GMs like to think of their players as pieces on a chessboard with predictable movements (meaning production) so that a coach can strategize around the strengths and weaknesses of the team. And just because we're heading into mid-September does not mean that additions are no longer meaningful. On Sept. 22, 2005, chess master Pat Riley added one more pawn to his stacked squad, a former star named Gary Payton. He knew that Payton would give him clutch play and veteran experience in a championship drive. Payton did just that against the Mavericks.
So which player of the remaining candidates can be this year's key addition for a future champion?
Bonzi Wells | Kings | SG | 6-5 | 29 years old
"Where in the world will Bonzi go?" has been the biggest question of the latter days of the free-agency period.
In July, he was one of the top guards available, packaging an intriguing combination of low-post scoring and rebounding from the two-guard position. But in September, his most recent team, the Sacramento Kings, pulled its offer off the table and signed John Salmons. Wells was looking for more dollars, which to date no one is offering.
Most insiders now expect Wells to sign a one-year exception for approximately $5 million with the hope of getting a better long-term offer next summer. So how is it that 30 teams, many of which are in need of shooting-guard depth, have not made a decent offer to sign a legitimate starting two-guard?
Last season Wells scored 13.6 ppg on 46 percent shooting and pulled down 7.7 rebounds per game. Yes, 7.7. The Kings' rebounding leader, center Brad Miller, averaged 7.8, so one could argue that Wells was the team's best rebounder. Throw in his 1.81 steals per game, and his .48 blocks a game, and you can see that Wells brought a lot to the table for his position.
Unfortunately for Wells, there was more on the table than just those stats. Start with his 22 percent 3-point shooting last year, the second time in his last four full seasons he failed to break the 30 percent mark. His playmaking for others was poor as well, as shown by his 2.4 turnovers versus just 2.8 assists per game last season. And though his instincts and bursts of speed led to steals and deflections at a good rate, he struggled to guard slashing players or shooters running through screens.
Bonzi is in a pickle for two reasons:
First, his off-court behavior simply scares teams, and he has no one to blame for that but himself. The problems in Portland and Memphis are still haunting him, and GMs remember his banishment two seasons ago from a Grizzlies team that really needed him.
It's hard to ask a GM to bring in someone who is capable of destroying a team's chemistry, even when that player is a proven commodity. Earlier in the season, when fan favorite Peja Stojakovic sat out games with an injury, Wells went public questioning Peja's commitment. League GMs took notice and shook their heads.
After that, though, Wells did his best to be a "team guy." When he sat out a long stretch of games last January and February with a groin injury, he publicly supported his replacement, second-year player Kevin Martin, visibly cheering for Martin from the bench.
But Martin is Bonzi's other problem. While Wells was out, Martin thrived. He averaged 12.3 ppg in January, shooting 52 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range. He was even better in February, scoring 16.6 ppg with 53 percent shooting and 43 percent on 3s.
Consequently, the Kings realized they had a budding star in Martin, who has two years remaining on his rookie contract, and thus they did not need to offer Wells what he was hoping to get.
Still, Bonzi has undeniable talent, his amazing playoff performance against San Antonio, and his overall production over an eight-year career to help him get employment this season. But he has his demons, too, which may lay dormant but are still strong enough to keep this genuine talent off a roster heading into the last few weeks of the offseason.
DerMarr Johnson | Nuggets | G/F | 6-9 | 26 years old It's easy to forget that Johnson was a lottery pick back in 1999 (Atlanta Hawks, No. 6 overall) with a bright future -- a future that was crushed along with Johnson's car in September of 2002 in an accident that kept DJ out of the NBA that entire season and put him on a revolving team plan.
If he signs with a team other than Denver, it will be his fourth team in just six full seasons. No one questions his health anymore, so why can't a 6-9 guard find a home in the NBA?
With all free agents, it is their current team that can best define their value for the rest of the league. A solid offer from the team a player just played for sends a message to the other 29 teams. The lack of such an offer is just as telling.
It is no secret that the Nuggets are in desperate need of a legitimate starting shooting guard to play alongside their franchise guy, Carmelo Anthony. This player needs to be able to catch and shoot from deep -- and, if possible, play the role of the team's best perimeter defender to free 'Melo from having to expend energy on defense.
These are attributes Johnson has exhibited in Denver, especially when he had a chance to play decent minutes. Two seasons ago, when Denver finished the season with a flourish, Johnson was starting and putting up solid numbers: 35 starts at shooting guard, 54 percent shooting from the field and 42 percent on 3s, and 8.5 points per game in only 21 minutes.
His efficiency dropped last season in his 19 starts at guard -- he scored 7.3 ppg in 22 minutes but shot only 43.4 percent (31.7 percent on 3-pointers). Still, NBA players think DJ can play and shoot, and he is an excellent defender on the ball, using his crazy length and size to engulf most opposing two-guards who try to take him off the dribble.
So what's the problem?
Now we get to why he is still on the market. If Denver is not anxious to keep him when it sorely needs a player like him, how can Johnson expect another team to take a chance on his potential? Three teams have gambled on him thus far in his career, and none has been rewarded.
Johnson has always been a "now you see him, now you don't" type of player. He'll have practices and games that make teams think, "Wow, that kid has lottery talent" -- which is why the Hawks took him when they did.
But then he'll go three days in a row accomplishing little. And Denver coach George Karl does not play that. Karl is classic old school when it comes to a player earning respect and a permanent spot in the rotation. Those who practice well and consistently perform get in the rotation. The others are left hoping for minutes here and there.
Johnson has other issues that hurt him as well. He really struggles chasing shooters through screens, often standing too upright (a position he is often in) and not handling screens with toughness and balance. Toughness is the one key ingredient that Karl is always looking for, and Denver's staff simply did not believe Johnson showed enough of it in practice or games to merit serious rotation minutes.
So here's the Catch-22: When he's starting and playing decent minutes, he's a mildly productive player. Coming off the bench is a struggle for him, yet teams see him as a backup guard/forward. That's a bad combination.
But it is likely that Denver saw enough good days out of him to bring him back one more time. Now that the Nuggets have streamlined their front office, look for them to get DJ back in the fold.
Keith Van Horn | Mavericks | F | 6-10 | 30 years old Van Horn is coming off his first season of averaging less than 10 points per game (he averaged 8.9 ppg) in his 13-year career. Almost every other statistic was down from the year before as well, including his career-low 42.4 percent shooting from the field.
On top of that, there are now questions about his wheels and his desire to keep playing. He made over $15 million last year alone -- he could easily go home to his wife and four children and no one would question him for it.
So why do I think we'll be hearing from Van Horn again, though perhaps not right away?
I think teams may be hesitant to pull the trigger and bring him in for fear that he'll not amount to much, and that they'd be better off with someone younger and more dependable (in terms of health). But when the season rolls into 2007, and teams are desperate for bigs who can shoot and know how to play, there is one man to whom they will all turn. Yep, Mr. Van Horn. And he knows that, too.
So why go through training camp and risk playing for a team heading nowhere when you can wait for a team who is a skilled big man away from contending for a title?
Remember, even playing spot minutes for the ultra-talented Mavs, Van Horn scored 9.7 ppg before a slew of leg injuries and a broken right hand in April lowered his overall numbers. In his five healthy months, Van Horn shot better than 33 percent from 3-point range in four of them, including a torrid 52 percent in January -- and the Mavericks went 13-2 that month.
He has become one of the NBA's top 3-point shooters from the frontcourt, a valuable asset come playoff time. But he is not needed in Dallas because the Mavs are overloaded with talent, deeper at every position than almost any other team in the NBA.
Two years ago, an older and slower Christian Laettner helped his Miami Heat team get to the Eastern Conference finals by making big shots off the bench. Clearly, if Van Horn has the will to continue, he'll be able to do at least that. And if the right team comes calling, dangling the chance at a ring, it's hard to imagine a player saying no to that. Oh, and the $1 million-plus they'll be offering will help, too.
