De'Aaron Fox 1/2 way through the season

[KingsFanSince85]

Ok. It's half way through FOX's rookie season -- although he's only played in 35 games -- so I think it's fair to evaluate his progress.

First, I was one of many that offered steadfast support of FOX leading up to the draft. I wanted the Kings to draft him. He was my top target. I even said I would draft him #1 if it was up to me.

Thus far, there are several rookies (Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Kuzma, Jayson Tatum, etc.) that have looked better and enjoyed much more success. There's no denying that. However, Tyreke Evans once looked like a better prospect than Steph Curry after their first few seasons -- specifically after the first season. So the final verdict is still a ways away.

That said, I think many are disappointed with FOX to this point. We all like instant gratification. And, admittedly, even I thought he'd have made a larger impact to this point. Lots of reasons/excuses can be made for him. Joeger's rotations. Lack of a consistent jumper. Lack of aggression. Slight frame. Injuries. But whatever the reasons, he has seemingly underwhelmed to this point. Maybe some fans aren't surprised, but I think the majority are.

This bring me to the point. While I agree that he hasn't been near as good as several other rookies, the one thing I really liked about FOX coming into the draft and why I championed so hard for him (aside from his obvious talents) is that he's a hard worker that's driven to succeed. And above all, he's a very bright kid.

Despite his flaws (consistent jumper, slight build), I remain extremely confident that he's the type of player that will work tirelessly to improve all his weaknesses. All NBA players have immense talent. IMO, what separates the best from the rest is work ethic and basketball IQ. I believe De'Aaron Fox possesses both. And because of that, I'm still very, very high on his future.

Right now, there are several rookies better than FOX. There's no denying that. But in a season or two, I'm not so certain that will be the case. Time will tell.

 

[Iced Espresso]

He's been about what I expected so far, and am still ok with where we drafted him at. His shooting woes everyone saw coming & there has been signs of some improvement so far.

What I'm disappointed in is drafting Jackson at 15 instead of OG.

 

[Joshoua]

He's been about what I expected so far, and am still ok with where we drafted him at. His shooting woes everyone saw coming & there has been signs of some improvement so far.

What I'm disappointed in is drafting Jackson at 15 instead of OG.

And what happens if Giles is 90% of what we are hearing

 

[Iced Espresso]

And what happens if Giles is 90% of what we are hearing

Then we could of had Giles & OG

 

[Joshoua]

Fox is good and will be a very good player it’s nice to see that his shot is completely broken. Also he’s a better passer than we were lead to believe which is good.

Since coming back from injury he’s averaging 14-6 (6 games). He’ll look a lot better once we start seeing a Fox-Hield- Bogdan-WCS lineup

 

[Kingsfan23]

Overall I’m fine with having drafted him as of today. The player of the first few weeks of the season can be the best player in the draft, really. It’s about contemplating why he’s struggled a lot since then, and if those reasons are chronic (hopefully it’s rookie nerves and being in a unfit system, and not work ethic). I’m mystified about his advanced stats, but that is what it is

 

[LPKingsFan]

Don't have the time to dig into the numbers, and not sure how to pull them over here with formatting, but for those inclined to take a look, I ran a Basketball-Reference comparison for Fox, Ball, Smith, and Mitchell, the players Fox will be inevitably compared to. Here's the link: http://bkref.com/tiny/unXKj

 

[Iced Espresso]

Don't have the time to dig into the numbers, and not sure how to pull them over here with formatting, but for those inclined to take a look, I ran a Basketball-Reference comparison for Fox, Ball, Smith, and Mitchell, the players Fox will be inevitably compared to. Here's the link: http://bkref.com/tiny/unXKj

Fox's shooting percentages look better grouped with those guys.

We'd have to see one of those graphic charts on floor location and FG attempts from each area of course to really get a good look.

 

[dude12]

I could care less how other rookies are doing. Fox is playing on an expansion type roster......2/3 youngsters and 1/3 vets of which some are very old.

For me, Fox is doing quite fine and showing incremental improvements and I think he's going to be our PG for a long, long time and play at a high level.

FWIW....I think many rookies are looking good or showing promise. Tatum is surrounded by talent, Kuzman has exceeded expectations, Mitchell has been given the green light to go, Markannenshows great promise, John Collins has been productive for a rookie........it's proving to be a good, maybe great draft. Fox is the real deal but I'm looking at him producing at a high level in year 3.

 

[Reverend]

I could care less how other rookies are doing. Fox is playing on an expansion type roster......2/3 youngsters and 1/3 vets of which some are very old.

For me, Fox is doing quite fine and showing incremental improvements and I think he's going to be our PG for a long, long time and play at a high level.

FWIW....I think many rookies are looking good or showing promise. Tatum is surrounded by talent, Kuzman has exceeded expectations, Mitchell has been given the green light to go, Markannenshows great promise, John Collins has been productive for a rookie........it's proving to be a good, maybe great draft. Fox is the real deal but I'm looking at him producing at a high level in year 3.

Bingo. In addition to that, there could be reason to believe some of those guys you named may be closer to their ceiling and have a much lower one than Fox does. Given the fact that Fox is the youngest one with awhile to go to be considered to have an NBA body. Point being, let's come back and have this talk three years from now and I'm fairly confident we'll be looking at Fox as one of the best players in the draft.

 

[Kingz19]

Fox is doing well in the areas I expected him to do well in as a rookie, and struggling in the areas I expected. His shot needs work but hes not afraid to let it fly. He gets to the hoop as easily as I anticipated and his speed and athleticism is as advertised. No disappointments. The pleasant aurprise is his crunch time aggressiveness exhibited in a few games.

 

[kingsboi]

bout what I expected out of a 19 year old rookie. Shows spurts where he uses speed to advantage and it can also backfire. The three point shot is something he can knock down with time, he has the form to be a respectable shooter. As of late he has been getting more of an opportunity to put up shots and not just defer to the vets, which is good to see, despite the results.

 

[gunks]

I've been disappointed in his play but not surprised by it. It's a bummer that he hasn't given us a lot to be excited about in this dreary season, but if he puts in the work, he could really be a great player in a couple years.

I'm still cool with the pick.

 

[Suicide King]

Fox has looked exactly like a 19yr old point guard with high potential. To be honest, it is really hard for me personally to feel I am getting an accurate assessment of any of our rookies. Why? This is not a typical situation, or rebuild. Minutes are off for one with Joerger trying his best to give ample time to 10 players under 3 years experience.

I delve into other Kings related sites, Reddit included. Here was a short but still informative thread from a Kings fan asking on the Memphis Grizzles sub about how Conley looked early on with an eye to relating it to Fox. As with most things, I hoard as much info as I can and make my own decision on it's relevance, so take with salt.

https://www.reddit.com/r/memphisgri...what_was_mike_conley_like_his_first_12_years/


TLDR: I believe in time, Fox will be special. If he develops any kind of consistent jumper during his rookie contract, I think we are set at the 1.

 

[ParniValjak]

Fox is where I thought he would be in his rookie year. He was always going to be a long term project who can play now but not put up great stats. The jumper was always going to be an issue early as was his slight build.

Fox is a player who has obvious talent and work ethic to go with it. That is a mix for success.

He was my #1 pick for this team based on talent, leadership and positional needed. I hopes for a Fox/Tatum combo on draft night and I saw Tatum as ready made player but Fox was always my #1 long term project.

I also thought that Smith Jr. arguably had the highest “safe ceiling” and would be a better rookie than Fox but in the long run, Fox had the potential to be better. I was apprehensive of Smith’s attitude on Kings. I said at draft time that Smith went to the best possible franchise for his development.

Bottom line, this board has a habbit of looking at everything with the purple colored glasses. There was talk of play offs and Fox being in contention for ROY but reality was always something very different. This was always going to be one of the worst teams in the league and Fox’s rookie year was going to have some growing pains. I still would have drafted Fox at 5 for the long run if I had to pick again.

With the benefit of hindsight, the only thing I would change was O.G. Anunoby over Jackson at 15. I was toying with the idea of selecting him at 10. Giles was a smart pick when you think about it even thought I never gave it any consideration.

 

[King Baller]

Fox is where I thought he would be in his rookie year. He was always going to be a long term project who can play now but not put up great stats. The jumper was always going to be an issue early as was his slight build.

Fox is a player who has obvious talent and work ethic to go with it. That is a mix for success.

He was my #1 pick for this team based on talent, leadership and positional needed. I hopes for a Fox/Tatum combo on draft night and I saw Tatum as ready made player but Fox was always my #1 long term project.

I also thought that Smith Jr. arguably had the highest “safe ceiling” and would be a better rookie than Fox but in the long run, Fox had the potential to be better. I was apprehensive of Smith’s attitude on Kings. I said at draft time that Smith went to the best possible franchise for his development.

Bottom line, this board has a habbit of looking at everything with the purple colored glasses. There was talk of play offs and Fox being in contention for ROY but reality was always something very different. This was always going to be one of the worst teams in the league and Fox’s rookie year was going to have some growing pains. I still would have drafted Fox at 5 for the long run if I had to pick again.

With the benefit of hindsight, the only thing I would change was O.G. Anunoby over Jackson at 15. I was toying with the idea of selecting him at 10. Giles was a smart pick when you think about it even thought I never gave it any consideration.

All the things that you are applying to Fox may also apply to Justin Jackson. Otherwise we agree on most things

 

[Kingster]

Fox is where I thought he would be in his rookie year. He was always going to be a long term project who can play now but not put up great stats. The jumper was always going to be an issue early as was his slight build.

Fox is a player who has obvious talent and work ethic to go with it. That is a mix for success.

He was my #1 pick for this team based on talent, leadership and positional needed. I hopes for a Fox/Tatum combo on draft night and I saw Tatum as ready made player but Fox was always my #1 long term project.

I also thought that Smith Jr. arguably had the highest “safe ceiling” and would be a better rookie than Fox but in the long run, Fox had the potential to be better. I was apprehensive of Smith’s attitude on Kings. I said at draft time that Smith went to the best possible franchise for his development.

Bottom line, this board has a habbit of looking at everything with the purple colored glasses. There was talk of play offs and Fox being in contention for ROY but reality was always something very different. This was always going to be one of the worst teams in the league and Fox’s rookie year was going to have some growing pains. I still would have drafted Fox at 5 for the long run if I had to pick again.

With the benefit of hindsight, the only thing I would change was O.G. Anunoby Kuzma over Jackson at 15. I was toying with the idea of selecting him at 10. Giles was a smart pick when you think about it even thought I never gave it any consideration.

Fox is where I thought he would be in his rookie year. He was always going to be a long term project who can play now but not put up great stats. The jumper was always going to be an issue early as was his slight build.

Fox is a player who has obvious talent and work ethic to go with it. That is a mix for success.

He was my #1 pick for this team based on talent, leadership and positional needed. I hopes for a Fox/Tatum combo on draft night and I saw Tatum as ready made player but Fox was always my #1 long term project.

I also thought that Smith Jr. arguably had the highest “safe ceiling” and would be a better rookie than Fox but in the long run, Fox had the potential to be better. I was apprehensive of Smith’s attitude on Kings. I said at draft time that Smith went to the best possible franchise for his development.

Bottom line, this board has a habbit of looking at everything with the purple colored glasses. There was talk of play offs and Fox being in contention for ROY but reality was always something very different. This was always going to be one of the worst teams in the league and Fox’s rookie year was going to have some growing pains. I still would have drafted Fox at 5 for the long run if I had to pick again.

With the benefit of hindsight, the only thing I would change was O.G. Anunoby over Jackson at 15. I was toying with the idea of selecting him at 10. Giles was a smart pick when you think about it even thought I never gave it any consideration.

I just changed one little thing in your post to make it perfect. How the NBA sans the Lakers slept on Kuzma I'll never know. That guy looks to be a two way star. If I really could look back in retrospect and do it over I'd take Kuzma at #15.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

@Iced Espresso @Čarolija

Tell me what you've seen from Anunoby so far this season that tells you the Kings made a mistake with that pick? Cause I'm not seeing it.

I'm not mocking your opinions at all, just really curious why you guys feel that way.

 

[swisshh]

Fox has been good. You need to look at his play with the fast line-ups and not his play with ZBo line-ups.

I hope people noticed that Westbrook had to start picking him up full court to stop the team. There's a lot of defensive focus on him and this will help him develop as he learns how to deal with it.

Most everything is as I thought it would be, but his passing is better than expected yet his finishing int he lane is worse. He had a floater game in college that hasn't shown up here in the pros. I think he's being told to draw fouls but he's not getting the whistle often. The other issue is learning how to read/negotiate the pick n roll as a defender at the NBA level.

Also, ditto on OG. That's who I thought was best at that spot in the draft and the injury knocks did not bother me.

 

[twslam07]

Fox has been better individually since coming back from his injury (all per 36 min):


But his on/off stats have gotten much worse:

 

[twslam07]

I found an interesting split as I was looking at Fox's January stats (all per 36 min):


Look at that difference in FTA per 36 min when Randolph is on the floor with Fox vs. when Randolph is off the floor. Granted it's a small sample size but it supports the thought that Fox is much more aggressive and present in the offense when Randolph is off the floor.

In the last 20 years, only 3 players have had a season with:

FG%: 42.5% or higher
PPG: 16.7 or higher
FTA: 7.3 or higher
APG: 7.6 or higher

Those 3 players are LeBron, Harden, & Westbrook. I know, I know. I'm getting way ahead of myself

 

[Suicide King]

I found an interesting split as I was looking at Fox's January stats (all per 36 min):
View attachment 7177

Look at that difference in FTA per 36 min when Randolph is on the floor with Fox vs. when Randolph is off the floor. Granted it's a small sample size but it supports the thought that Fox is much more aggressive and present in the offense when Randolph is off the floor.

In the last 20 years, only 3 players have had a season with:

FG%: 42.5% or higher
PPG: 16.7 or higher
FTA: 7.3 or higher
APG: 7.6 or higher

Those 3 players are LeBron, Harden, & Westbrook. I know, I know. I'm getting way ahead of myself

So you are saying, without a player like Z-Bo on the court, Fox might look pretty special?

 

[jcassio]

He'll have some great games in the 2nd half of the season. He'll be better next year, and a rising star in his 3rd year. We just have to be a little patient.

 

[twslam07]

Fox has been better individually since coming back from his injury (all per 36 min):
View attachment 7175

But his on/off stats have gotten much worse:
View attachment 7176

Looked into Fox's on/off stats for the month of January a little more (Fox has a -7.7 on/off for the year for reference)

Fox & Randolph on the floor together vs. Fox off the floor results in a -26.5
Fox on the floor & Randolph off the floor vs. Fox off the floor results in a -8.7

What does this tell us? Fox's -17.2 on/off in the month of January is being skewed drastically when playing with Randolph. However, when Randolph is off the floor, he's performing at a very similar on/off as before (-7.7 vs. -8.7).

Don't get me wrong -7.7 & -8.7 is still very bad for on/off, but it's much better than -17.2!

 

[ppine]

Speed kills. I am glad to have some of it. If you get there first you do not need to be the biggest or strongest player. We should have learned that lesson watching IT.
Fox runs the break and puts pressure on the defense a lot of the time. He is a good finisher and good rebounder for a guard. His defense is decent and improving because of his quickness. He is a better shooter than people believe. He is adjusting to the speed of the NBA. There are other people out there almost as fast as he is. His attitude is one of his greatest attributes. He has humility and is a hard worker. I love the guy.

 

[Telemachus]

Looked into Fox's on/off stats for the month of January a little more (Fox has a -7.7 on/off for the year for reference)

Fox & Randolph on the floor together vs. Fox off the floor results in a -26.5
Fox on the floor & Randolph off the floor vs. Fox off the floor results in a -8.7

What does this tell us? Fox's -17.2 on/off in the month of January is being skewed drastically when playing with Randolph. However, when Randolph is off the floor, he's performing at a very similar on/off as before (-7.7 vs. -8.7).

Don't get me wrong -7.7 & -8.7 is still very bad for on/off, but it's much better than -17.2!

What is the team's point differential for the month of January? It can't be good.

 

[ParniValjak]

@Iced Espresso @Čarolija

Tell me what you've seen from Anunoby so far this season that tells you the Kings made a mistake with that pick? Cause I'm not seeing it.

I'm not mocking your opinions at all, just really curious why you guys feel that way.

I never saw OG as a star but I could see the high level role player potential. I love his athleticism and ability to guard multiple positions. I also believed that he will be able to develop his 3pt shot where in time he could becomes one of those really values 3 and D type of guys that championship players always have.

Nothing I have seen this season discourages my view of the kid. I think he will be a great role player a 3 and D guy who can guard multiple positions and stay out of the way of the high usage type of players (i.e. stars).

Essentially, Joerger came out and indicated earlier in the season that Jackson is a role player which essentially is what he will be in the NBA if he figures it out. I just thought that OG's potential in that particular role is pretty high.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I never saw OG as a star but I could see the high level role player potential. I love his athleticism and ability to guard multiple positions. I also believed that he will be able to develop his 3pt shot where in time he could becomes one of those really values 3 and D type of guys that championship players always have.

Nothing I have seen this season discourages my view of the kid. I think he will be a great role player a 3 and D guy who can guard multiple positions and stay out of the way of the high usage type of players (i.e. stars).

Essentially, Joerger came out and indicated earlier in the season that Jackson is a role player which essentially is what he will be in the NBA if he figures it out. I just thought that OG's potential in that particular role is pretty high.

Or perhaps they'll both be role players? Nothing wrong with that. Robert Horry was a role player. Dude was part of 7 title teams.

I believe Justin Jackson can develop into a very good role player, the kind that really helps teams win. People find all sorts of flaws with his game, but he's just a winner.

Like most rookies, he's not setting the world on fire. But that doesn't mean he won't become an important piece to a winner. Perhaps O.G. will be that type of player too. But I've seen nothing during their rookie seasons that makes me believe Jackson was a mistake at #15 and O.G. was the right choice.

 

[Suicide King]

Or perhaps they'll both be role players? Nothing wrong with that. Robert Horry was a role player. Dude was part of 7 title teams.

I believe Justin Jackson can develop into a very good role player, the kind that really helps teams win. People find all sorts of flaws with his game, but he's just a winner.

Like most rookies, he's not setting the world on fire. But that doesn't mean he won't become an important piece to a winner. Perhaps O.G. will be that type of player too. But I've seen nothing during their rookie seasons that makes me believe Jackson was a mistake at #15 and O.G. was the right choice.

I really like Jackson and by no means would I write him off. I think we will have a much better idea of whether he can excel in the nba or just fit in real soon. I am hoping for the best. Seems like a great person to boot.

 

[ParniValjak]

Or perhaps they'll both be role players? Nothing wrong with that. Robert Horry was a role player. Dude was part of 7 title teams.

I believe Justin Jackson can develop into a very good role player, the kind that really helps teams win. People find all sorts of flaws with his game, but he's just a winner.

Like most rookies, he's not setting the world on fire. But that doesn't mean he won't become an important piece to a winner. Perhaps O.G. will be that type of player too. But I've seen nothing during their rookie seasons that makes me believe Jackson was a mistake at #15 and O.G. was the right choice.

Quite possibly! I have been wrong many times before.

The way I see it is I see Jackson as a jack of all trades master of none type role players. Where as I see OG as someone who can be ELITE in certain aspects of his game. I think OG can be an elite defender, the type that consistently gets selected to NBA all defense teams