Play-in games discussion
- Thread starter RoyalDiva
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Not really liking the pathway to the playoffs.
I’m actually feeling pretty good about the Warriors matchup. They could lose but they could win. I think the Kings matchup well and are usually only shooting the three decent away from winning every game against the Warriors. Play well. Win. Honestly, if the Kings manage to knock off the Warriors that would feel a relatively disappointing season was somewhat salvaged.
Despite sweeping the Lakers. Even under straight up circumstances they are probably due for a win against the Kings. But if the Lakers lose the Pelicans…we all know whether is Kings or Warriors ref mode is going to be in overdrive to get the Lakers into the postseason. Lakers will beat the Pelicans though.
Kings won’t beat the Pelicans as constructed. That doesn’t mean they’ll need to blow it up to beat the Pelicans in the future but they need to add a couple style players that they just don’t have. Kings need to balance their roster.
Ultimately, Kings only finished 2 games worse than last season and fell 6 spots. Last seasons total would’ve been play in. Monte was counting on everybody getting a little better and mixed in with chemistry. I see why he thought that. All the best players are at that age where they are about to enter their prime seasons. It didn’t pan out that way.
I’m actually feeling pretty good about the Warriors matchup. They could lose but they could win. I think the Kings matchup well and are usually only shooting the three decent away from winning every game against the Warriors. Play well. Win. Honestly, if the Kings manage to knock off the Warriors that would feel a relatively disappointing season was somewhat salvaged.
Despite sweeping the Lakers. Even under straight up circumstances they are probably due for a win against the Kings. But if the Lakers lose the Pelicans…we all know whether is Kings or Warriors ref mode is going to be in overdrive to get the Lakers into the postseason. Lakers will beat the Pelicans though.
Kings won’t beat the Pelicans as constructed. That doesn’t mean they’ll need to blow it up to beat the Pelicans in the future but they need to add a couple style players that they just don’t have. Kings need to balance their roster.
Ultimately, Kings only finished 2 games worse than last season and fell 6 spots. Last seasons total would’ve been play in. Monte was counting on everybody getting a little better and mixed in with chemistry. I see why he thought that. All the best players are at that age where they are about to enter their prime seasons. It didn’t pan out that way.
Realistically our odds are at best about 25% and that's before factoring in ref/league bias and the fact that the Pels have outright owned us.
Kings-Warriors is 50/50 perhaps with a slight edge to Warriors based on current form and Monk being out.
Kings-Lakers is probably 50/50 as well - Kings have dominated Lakers since Domas came to town but Monk being out we are 1-1.
That is probably our best case scenario which is 25% odds on the money and I think refs will advantage both of our opponents in those matchups decreasing those odds.
Pels have just outright owned us and I see no scenario in which they don't, but I could actually see this game officiated fairly or slight edge to Kings solely because NBA would rather have NorCal market.
Kings-Warriors is 50/50 perhaps with a slight edge to Warriors based on current form and Monk being out.
Kings-Lakers is probably 50/50 as well - Kings have dominated Lakers since Domas came to town but Monk being out we are 1-1.
That is probably our best case scenario which is 25% odds on the money and I think refs will advantage both of our opponents in those matchups decreasing those odds.
Pels have just outright owned us and I see no scenario in which they don't, but I could actually see this game officiated fairly or slight edge to Kings solely because NBA would rather have NorCal market.
What? You don't like those poses at the end of every 3 point shot that he makes? Get all the cameras ready for those still shots.
I'm sure the algos pump that content up because it either incites madness or other people boosting and it's all about building small communities and an echo chamber at some point you don't even need hashtags any more you just get served Kings talk if you interact with Kings fans. I just am sad he has such a presence in that space as opposed to people who offer actual value.
I think the numbers are pretty conclusive that Sabonis, Fox, and Murray all improved. That's your core group right there and I think Monte was right about them taking a step forward. Ellis's improvement from G-League to NBA starter goes without saying and I think Mitchell has also started to figure out his NBA role on offense in the second half of this season.
Monk was a little more of a mixed bag -- he was better as a playmaker and made some incremental improvements on defense but his 3pt/FT shooting percentages dipped. Huerter had a tough year shooting the ball but he reduced his TOs and PFs and I think he handled his role-reduction well -- focusing more on hustle and energy plays when he was on the floor. Other than shooting, his contributions across the board were pretty equivalent to last season after accounting for the minutes reduction. Lyles continues to bring good value at his price range but he's not great as a backup C and I don't think he would give us the toughness we need at the starting PF spot either so he's pretty much locked into the same role he has now.
None of this was out of line with expectations. The bad news comes mostly from the supporting cast / fringe rotation guys. Barnes' declining athleticism has started to manifest itself with some worrying defensive struggles and unacceptable rebounding numbers for a starting PF. He probably needs to be transitioned into a bench role soon. Off-season additions Duarte, Vezenkov, and McGee were all various degrees of disappointing. As a stan of defensive specialists, I still wish we'd gotten to see how this team would have looked with Neemias Queta and Nerlens Noel as the backup Cs instead of McGee and Len. And lastly, justifiable or not, it's clear that Mike Brown doesn't trust Kessler Edwards enough to keep him in the rotation so failing to fill that important backup SF spot with either a draft pick or a free agent last summer continues to hurt us.
The good news! None of these problems are uncorrectable. Our expensive guys all performed. The guys who Monte might be looking to trade are on either expiring or 2 year deals. So now we get one last look at this group in the play-in / play-offs and then Monte will have an opportunity to rebuild that supporting cast for next year with Monk's free-agency being the only area of potential concern.
Monk was a little more of a mixed bag -- he was better as a playmaker and made some incremental improvements on defense but his 3pt/FT shooting percentages dipped. Huerter had a tough year shooting the ball but he reduced his TOs and PFs and I think he handled his role-reduction well -- focusing more on hustle and energy plays when he was on the floor. Other than shooting, his contributions across the board were pretty equivalent to last season after accounting for the minutes reduction. Lyles continues to bring good value at his price range but he's not great as a backup C and I don't think he would give us the toughness we need at the starting PF spot either so he's pretty much locked into the same role he has now.
None of this was out of line with expectations. The bad news comes mostly from the supporting cast / fringe rotation guys. Barnes' declining athleticism has started to manifest itself with some worrying defensive struggles and unacceptable rebounding numbers for a starting PF. He probably needs to be transitioned into a bench role soon. Off-season additions Duarte, Vezenkov, and McGee were all various degrees of disappointing. As a stan of defensive specialists, I still wish we'd gotten to see how this team would have looked with Neemias Queta and Nerlens Noel as the backup Cs instead of McGee and Len. And lastly, justifiable or not, it's clear that Mike Brown doesn't trust Kessler Edwards enough to keep him in the rotation so failing to fill that important backup SF spot with either a draft pick or a free agent last summer continues to hurt us.
The good news! None of these problems are uncorrectable. Our expensive guys all performed. The guys who Monte might be looking to trade are on either expiring or 2 year deals. So now we get one last look at this group in the play-in / play-offs and then Monte will have an opportunity to rebuild that supporting cast for next year with Monk's free-agency being the only area of potential concern.
The most worrying thing is potentially losing Monk for nothing otherwise even the pick to ATL is a speed bump. I'd be willing to take a swing at Barnes's long term replacement in the draft after previewing the list of athletic guys 6'9 and over projected as primarily PF mocked 10 and below.
So many teams outside of OKC are either at or near the second apron, have already traded away firsts, and have limited paths to bettering themselves. Houston and San Antonio are coming in hot for sure. Who knows what to make of Memphis. Some of the teams ahead of us that fail really are in "win this year" mode though.
It would be nice if some of the free agents that don't become Kings make their way into the Eastern Conference though!
So many teams outside of OKC are either at or near the second apron, have already traded away firsts, and have limited paths to bettering themselves. Houston and San Antonio are coming in hot for sure. Who knows what to make of Memphis. Some of the teams ahead of us that fail really are in "win this year" mode though.
It would be nice if some of the free agents that don't become Kings make their way into the Eastern Conference though!
torn on that because if we convey the pick we can start trading future firsts, but it's possible there is a keeper at 13 or 14 and we'll send ATL a 20 something next year.
Either way I think we can start doing that the next year because if we don't convey in 26 it turns into 2nd rounders and we'd be able to trade multiple picks on a timeline after that.
Either way I think we can start doing that the next year because if we don't convey in 26 it turns into 2nd rounders and we'd be able to trade multiple picks on a timeline after that.
Not necessarily. If the Kings win two games and advance as the 8th seed they would still lose their draft pick to Atlanta. As we're accustomed to, making the playoffs as a 1-8 seed still places a team outside of the draft lottery.
EDIT: I may have mis-read this. If you meant "the Lakers winning today" than what I said here is true. If you meant "the Lakers potentially beating the Kings in a play-in game", then you are correct.
EDIT: I may have mis-read this. If you meant "the Lakers winning today" than what I said here is true. If you meant "the Lakers potentially beating the Kings in a play-in game", then you are correct.
I'm starting to accept the pick but it would be kind of funny if we could make the playoffs and have a lotto pick.
Who are the teams with multiple firsts this year? If we somehow won the lottery if ever there was a year to trade a high pick for multiple middle picks or maybe even 2 this year and one next year (assuring we can bypass the Stepien rule) this is the one. Unless anyone is actually sold on Sarr.
Who are the teams with multiple firsts this year? If we somehow won the lottery if ever there was a year to trade a high pick for multiple middle picks or maybe even 2 this year and one next year (assuring we can bypass the Stepien rule) this is the one. Unless anyone is actually sold on Sarr.
Isaiah Collier is the potential late lottery slide guy. He was the #1 prospect in his high-school class but had a bit of an underwhelming season at USC and is now being ranked as a late lottery guy. The media would have a good laugh about Monte drafting another PG in the lottery but Collier has combo guard size so he would be insurance in case Monk leaves in free agency.
How great is the Los Angeles Lakers standing. Not only did they avoid the Kings (which have beaten them so many times), but they get to play the Pelicans again (which they dominated in today's game) and if they lose, they get homecourt against either Kings or Warriors rather than on the road. As for the Kings? This season is a total failure imo because even if they made the 8th seed, it would not meet expectation. And I don't see them advancing further.
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