I'm starting to think we should...
- Punt on the 2023 FA class (we need a 3rd star to become a contender and there's not really one available this offseason that would be a good fit. Also, we ideally need a PF with size/length who is a great defender, solid shotblocker, solid rebounder, and good shooter. I don't really see that player available to sign in the 2023 FA class. PJ Washington seems to be the closest fit but I wouldn't consider him a great defender and rebounder)
- Avoid trading any of our young assets (Similar to #1 above. This team will need to have a 3rd star at some point to become a contender. Perhaps Murray develops into that player, but if he doesn't you'll need all of the assets you can, including Murray, to land one in a trade that will fit with Fox & Sabonis)
- Resign Barnes & Lyles to bloated 1+1 contracts (I'd like to roll over our cap space to the following offseason as there seems to be much better options that would be great fits with our core long term in the 2024 FA class. In the meantime, Barnes & Lyles give us continuity and help prevent this team from taking a step back next season)
- Sign a better backup C, like Plumlee, to a 1+1 deal (Similar to #3 above, I'd like to roll over our cap space to the following offseason but this should also help strengthen our team as I think we all recognize an upgrade at backup C would be helpful)
- Avoid going over the luxury tax line (I'd like to have the full MLE to use during the 2024 offseason and going over the luxury tax this offseason prevents that)
- Resign Dellavedova & Len to minimum deals (I like Delly's veteran presence & leadership. Seems like a good fit with the young guys. Len seems like a good culture fit too and is a solid 3rd C to have)
- Draft BPA at #24, #38, & #54 (Haven't been following the draft as much this year since we've made the playoffs but ideally we'd be targeting wings & forwards)
That gives us the following roster going into the 2023-24 season:
PG - Fox / Mitchell / Dellavedova
SG - Huerter / Monk / Dozier
SF - Murray / Edwards
PF - Barnes / Lyles
C - Sabonis / Plumlee / Len
2023 Picks - #24 / #38 / #54
Obviously, it's essentially the same roster as this past season, but you'd hope you'd see some progression based on the young guys continuing to improve, an upgrade at backup C, team continuity & chemistry continuing to grow, defensive rotations become 2nd nature, potentially one of the 2023 picks being an immediate contributor, etc.
Once we get to the 2024 offseason, we hopefully have a better understanding of what Murray is & can become. Is he a fringe star already? Is he on the rise to becoming a star? Is he looking like a finished product/role player?
- If he's a fringe star already, great! I'd be open to trading our young assets for better fitting, complementary pieces and commit to a Fox-Murray-Sabonis core going forward
- If he's progressing but still not quite a star, I'd likely hold onto our assets & future picks for at least another season and see how Murray looks in year 3.
- If he doesn't really improve all that much and looks like he's just going to be a productive role player, perhaps we consider moving our young assets (Murray included) to bring in a 3rd star, and since our 2024 1st would have likely conveyed to ATL by this time, we'd have all of our future 1st round picks available to trade. Now the trade doesn't necessarily have to be in the 2024 offseason, but the less year's remaining on the rookie contracts for Murray, Mitchell, and #24, the less value they'll likely have to opposing teams
However, regardless of how Murray looks, we can still look at addressing our allusive PF with size/length who is a great defender, solid shotblocker, solid rebounder, and good shooter. Including the cap holds from Sabonis ($31,050,000), Monk ($12,929, 579), and Edwards ($2,409,870), we'd have ~$10.9 mil in cap space with the following players under contract:
- Fox
- Mitchell
- Huerter
- Monk (Cap Hold)
- Edwards (Cap Hold)
- Murray
- Sabonis (Cap Hold)
- Holmes
- #24
However, Holmes would now be an expiring and should be much, much easier to dump in a trade (maybe a 2nd or two at the most). If we do that, it brings our cap space to ~$22.8 mil. If we trade Mitchell for a future 1st (to maintain an asset) & cap space, that brings our cap space to ~$28.2 mil.
With that cap space, you'd have the ability to potentially find that PF that would fit really well next to Sabonis:
- Aleksej Pokusveski
- Jaden McDaniels
- Jalen Smith
- Jarred Vanderbilt (maybe he develops a reliable 3PT shot by this time)
- OG Anunoby
- Onyeka Okongwu (maybe he develops a reliable 3PT shot by this time)
- Patrick Williams
You then could use your MLE on a rim protecting, floor spacing C (which I think would give the defenses a different look in more of a 5 out system with Fox attacking), and there seems to be quite a few of them that fit this description:
- Bol Bol
- Isaiah Hartenstein
- Mo Bamba
- Zach Collins
Going into the 2024-25 season, we could have a roster that looks like this...
PG - Fox / Monk
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray / Edwards
PF - Anunoby / #24
C - Sabonis / Hartenstein
...not to mention we'd still have all of our future 1st round picks (and an extra 1st from trading Mitchell if extra cap space was needed). Again, if Murray grows into that 3rd star, great! If not, you still have a plethora of assets to package in a trade to help elevate the team further.