Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)
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He moves too slow for my liking. I need to see more. Fast, athletic NBA players will make him work and strip the ball from him if he moves at that sloth-like pace.
Bogs is 25 years old, he has been playing with grown men for years and went up a few times against the USA in FIBA competitions, him contributing isn't a surprise to me. He is a role player when its all said and done anyway.
Bogs is 25 years old, he has been playing with grown men for years and went up a few times against the USA in FIBA competitions, him contributing isn't a surprise to me. He is a role player when its all said and done anyway.
Yeah agreed for the most part... Although Bogdan at 21 had stats that look pretty close to Luka's 19yr old season. Luka, like most of the other guys at the top of the draft, really needs to become a lights out 3pt shooter to have a chance at being an all star type player imo. Without that he's a fairly unathletic playmaker at the wing who is probably a bit of a liability on defense. A lot of this comes down to who vlade and co think will become the best shooter.
First, the subject of "position" is always complicated. It's neverendingly complicated. Every single year it comes up because it is complicated. There should be an encyclopedia devoted to the subject. I think it goes all the way back to Socrates: What makes a thing a thing? What is the nature of a point guard? A two guard? A small forward? Etc.
Assuming we can define a position as pg, sg, sf, pf, and center, we don't even know the position Doncic is going to play in the NBA. I'm just making the assumption he isn't a 4 or 5. If you're making defense the criterion for determining position, then certainly MCW can guard a lot of 3s in this league, which means that sometimes he can be a 3 and sometimes he can be a 1 or a 2. If MCW could shoot would he play more off the ball as 3s typically do? Probably. He probably handles the ball as much as he does on offense because of what he can't do (shoot) as what he can do (pass). We don't know what kind of shooter Doncic is going to be in the NBA. His shooting stats don't awe you. He might not play the 3 on offense for the same reason MCW doesn't play the 3 on offense - relatively mediocre outside shooting. And what do you do with a mediocre shooter and good ballhandler? You play him at the point. So, I don't think it's far fetched to include MCW on the list at all. I would include any big NBA point guard on that list for those reasons; I just couldn't think of others that got many minutes.
And it's not why don't we trade for MCW, it's why don't we trade for Batum if we want an assist guy at the 3? He's a known commodity with very good improving assist numbers, a better defender than Doncic ever will be, and probably a better outside shooter. I wouldn't trade the Kings #2 pick for him, but he has a lot of the assets that it's assumed Doncic will have in the NBA. With Batum, you don't have to assume.
P.S. Donic does not average 5 assists per game; he averaged 4.3 assist per game in the regular season and 3 in the playoffs.
Assuming we can define a position as pg, sg, sf, pf, and center, we don't even know the position Doncic is going to play in the NBA. I'm just making the assumption he isn't a 4 or 5. If you're making defense the criterion for determining position, then certainly MCW can guard a lot of 3s in this league, which means that sometimes he can be a 3 and sometimes he can be a 1 or a 2. If MCW could shoot would he play more off the ball as 3s typically do? Probably. He probably handles the ball as much as he does on offense because of what he can't do (shoot) as what he can do (pass). We don't know what kind of shooter Doncic is going to be in the NBA. His shooting stats don't awe you. He might not play the 3 on offense for the same reason MCW doesn't play the 3 on offense - relatively mediocre outside shooting. And what do you do with a mediocre shooter and good ballhandler? You play him at the point. So, I don't think it's far fetched to include MCW on the list at all. I would include any big NBA point guard on that list for those reasons; I just couldn't think of others that got many minutes.
And it's not why don't we trade for MCW, it's why don't we trade for Batum if we want an assist guy at the 3? He's a known commodity with very good improving assist numbers, a better defender than Doncic ever will be, and probably a better outside shooter. I wouldn't trade the Kings #2 pick for him, but he has a lot of the assets that it's assumed Doncic will have in the NBA. With Batum, you don't have to assume.
P.S. Donic does not average 5 assists per game; he averaged 4.3 assist per game in the regular season and 3 in the playoffs.
One thing I learned from the videos is that they play bingo in europe. 
If the Kings do draft him it looks like they need to run a lot of pick and rolls for him in order to get their money's worth. Or, they need to be able to defend and defensive rebound much much better in order to get him in the open floor when he gets the ball. I'm assuming they wouldn't put him in the corner - he will never be a 3&D guy. And along the same lines, the Kings would need to screen better than what I saw from the Kings last season. (Those euros know how to screen!) He's not breaking down NBA players one-on-one, imo. As far as making baskets from the outside, other than looking at his form, I totally disregard the makes because they never show you the misses. All in all, I still would take Bagley over him every day and Sunday because I just view Bagley as a safer All Star pick due to his athleticism, which usually (not always) indicates a higher potential ceiling. Also, if you think the Kings need to get more athletic overall and longer overall, Doncic doesn't make sense. It's possible he could subtract from the overall athleticism of the team, not increase it. And unless you believe that he plays point guard or the 2 in the NBA he's not going to increase the length or size of this team. Joerger harped about the size disadvantage of the Kings all last season, and Doncic just doesn't improve that inadequacy. But I could see Joerger singing hallelujah all day long if the Kings draft Ayton, Bagley or Jackson.
If the Kings do draft him it looks like they need to run a lot of pick and rolls for him in order to get their money's worth. Or, they need to be able to defend and defensive rebound much much better in order to get him in the open floor when he gets the ball. I'm assuming they wouldn't put him in the corner - he will never be a 3&D guy. And along the same lines, the Kings would need to screen better than what I saw from the Kings last season. (Those euros know how to screen!) He's not breaking down NBA players one-on-one, imo. As far as making baskets from the outside, other than looking at his form, I totally disregard the makes because they never show you the misses. All in all, I still would take Bagley over him every day and Sunday because I just view Bagley as a safer All Star pick due to his athleticism, which usually (not always) indicates a higher potential ceiling. Also, if you think the Kings need to get more athletic overall and longer overall, Doncic doesn't make sense. It's possible he could subtract from the overall athleticism of the team, not increase it. And unless you believe that he plays point guard or the 2 in the NBA he's not going to increase the length or size of this team. Joerger harped about the size disadvantage of the Kings all last season, and Doncic just doesn't improve that inadequacy. But I could see Joerger singing hallelujah all day long if the Kings draft Ayton, Bagley or Jackson.
I think you need to look at this from a slightly different perspective. The end goal of the Kings is not to maximize a certain player's potential, but to run plays which maximize their chances of scoring. So the question should be is a Doncic pick and roll a higher percentage play than available alternatives? If it is, then you run it. It would not be for him, it would be because that is our best chance for scoring.
Agreed. Hypothetically, if Doncic's pick and roll is the most effective play the Kings' can run, then it should be run the most in their offense. If not, it shouldn't. If the Kings pay up a #2 pick for Doncic, one has to believe though that's it's because the Kings believe he could improve their offense overall, not for Doncic's benefit. If they think that Doncic can improve their overall offense, it's my belief that they believe that it will occur mostly because of his ability to run the pick and roll and his ability to make plays on the fast break, not his ability to break down offenses in one-on-one situations. I've just been able to see video clips, but I've seen him dribble around a lot when he's in a one-on-one situation; that's not going to happen in the NBA. He's got to have the ability to just beat a guy off the dribble, not dribble here, dribble there, and then finally find a seam in the defense.
agreed on the rational for drafing/not-drafting him. in was going to add to my original response a discussion of whether Doncic's PnR and his playmaking in general is the best option to pick up at #2... that is open for discussion and I have not made up my mind yet. but my gut tells me that the lack of athleticism will not hamper him in one on one sitatuations on offense as much as some might think. cannot give an argument as to why I feel this way though.
Doncic will be a SG or SF in the NBA just like he has been for Real Madrid and the Slovenian team.
Carter-Williams has always been a PG. He doesn't guard SFs other than on switches because of his build (184 lbs coming into the NBA and doesn't look a ton bigger now) and because even though he's 6'6" he only has a 6'7" wingspan.
Doncic needs to adjust his shot selection and end of quarter heaves dropped his 3P% by 3-4 points but he is a good shooter with good mechanics where it can reasonably assumed that he'll improve whereas MCW is a poor shooter and always has been.
Carter-Williams has always been a PG. He doesn't guard SFs other than on switches because of his build (184 lbs coming into the NBA and doesn't look a ton bigger now) and because even though he's 6'6" he only has a 6'7" wingspan.
Doncic needs to adjust his shot selection and end of quarter heaves dropped his 3P% by 3-4 points but he is a good shooter with good mechanics where it can reasonably assumed that he'll improve whereas MCW is a poor shooter and always has been.
I was thinking the other way actually. He may struggle creating space against bigger quicker guys. I see his slow step backs and worry he will not be able to get off good shots easily in the NBA. He has the craftiness for sure, but if you need 5 pumpfakes and spins to get a shot up every possession you're in for a long long game.
come on, that joke is getting old. People like to bring up MPJ just to bash him in other threads. I'll reiterate over and over again, I only brought up that he won MVP in that game because MPJ haters were critiscizing him for never playing anyone except 5'9 highschool kids.
There's no need to bash 1 prospect to make another look better. Doncic's game speaks for himself.
There's no need to bash 1 prospect to make another look better. Doncic's game speaks for himself.
https://www.ajc.com/sports/basketba...-peterson-luka-doncic/i7O61nAe1lmQRv7ybDov8N/
Hawks assistant GM on Doncic
Hawks assistant GM on Doncic
I know you're joking and taking a dig at mpj but Westbrook is a prime example of a guy the went much higher than any of the pundits thought. His college production wasn't great but it didn't matter to Presti. He saw the athleticism and the skills and he ignored the college stats and took the player higher than mock draft sites and the media expected.
When you watch a full game with Doncic, it feels like he is always in control of the game, that you are never out of the game.
In a way, he reminds me of when Lonzo Ball was at UCLA. When Ball was on the court, you could never count out the Bruins. They both have that type of court presence. The court vision and the ability to make the game easier for their teammates is what makes these players special.
Doncic is a 6'8" bigger version of Lonzo Ball with a lot better shooting mechanics. Their court vision is similar, but Doncic is superior in his shooting and scoring ability. They also have similar athleticism.
I see Doncic as a Point Forward in the NBA. He can share ball handling duties with Fox on the court, much like Doncic and Goran Dragic did when they were playing and winning on their national team. The ball movement should be pretty darn good with these two handling the ball.
In a way, he reminds me of when Lonzo Ball was at UCLA. When Ball was on the court, you could never count out the Bruins. They both have that type of court presence. The court vision and the ability to make the game easier for their teammates is what makes these players special.
Doncic is a 6'8" bigger version of Lonzo Ball with a lot better shooting mechanics. Their court vision is similar, but Doncic is superior in his shooting and scoring ability. They also have similar athleticism.
I see Doncic as a Point Forward in the NBA. He can share ball handling duties with Fox on the court, much like Doncic and Goran Dragic did when they were playing and winning on their national team. The ball movement should be pretty darn good with these two handling the ball.
Doncic is probably the safest pick in the draft. Its very hard to see a scenario where he wouldnt be at least a very productive player. He has size, shooting ability, great ball handling skills and elite vision. His floor is on another level compared to these other prospects.
That being said, his lack of athletisism might make it hard for him to be a near mvp caliber player. He is also very young so its possible his athletisism will develope and it will become good enough to win 1-1 after switches.
I really hope Kings get him unless Porter just amazes on private workouts. By drafting Doncic Kings NEED to commit on few things:
1. Build 4-1 offense with A LOT of shooting and build the game around Fox and Doncic running pick n rolls with a rim running center.
2. Getting a wing defender to play "pf". Bogdanovic isnt a good defender, Doncic isnt a good defender so you need one guy to defend the best opposing wing. Considering that he would also need to be able to shoot, thats type of player that is very difficult to find. Maybe try throwing some money at Aaron Gordon, maybe try to get Harkless for nothing ot just wait till the next free agency.
If I see them drafting Doncic and starting a lineup like Fox, Bog, Doncic, Zbo/Skal, Wcs/Giles, im going to furiously demand that both Joeger and Vlade needs to be fired. On the other hand it would be hilarious to see Luka's face when he tries to iso after switch when Zbo is sitting in the high post, wcs under the rim and Fox's defender clogging the lane
That being said, his lack of athletisism might make it hard for him to be a near mvp caliber player. He is also very young so its possible his athletisism will develope and it will become good enough to win 1-1 after switches.
I really hope Kings get him unless Porter just amazes on private workouts. By drafting Doncic Kings NEED to commit on few things:
1. Build 4-1 offense with A LOT of shooting and build the game around Fox and Doncic running pick n rolls with a rim running center.
2. Getting a wing defender to play "pf". Bogdanovic isnt a good defender, Doncic isnt a good defender so you need one guy to defend the best opposing wing. Considering that he would also need to be able to shoot, thats type of player that is very difficult to find. Maybe try throwing some money at Aaron Gordon, maybe try to get Harkless for nothing ot just wait till the next free agency.
If I see them drafting Doncic and starting a lineup like Fox, Bog, Doncic, Zbo/Skal, Wcs/Giles, im going to furiously demand that both Joeger and Vlade needs to be fired. On the other hand it would be hilarious to see Luka's face when he tries to iso after switch when Zbo is sitting in the high post, wcs under the rim and Fox's defender clogging the lane
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Funny thing is I watched the same highlights as you and thought Doncic is getting to any place on the floor he wants to. He has great handles and moves around the court smoothly and has very nice hesitation moves that takes the defenders off guard. His game is similar to Bogis except Doncic is big enough to play SF. He is very crafty with the ball in the same way gym rat JWill was. I like the Kid as #2 but I think teams are blowing smoke and the Suns will take him #1. All this talk of junk food, poor eating habits etc. came from where exactly? They don't give away MVP awards, even in Europe
This reads like an anti European basketball piece. How do you explain Bogdan playing so well?
This reads like an anti European basketball piece. How do you explain Bogdan playing so well?
Last year when I watched Bogdan I routinely saw a player that was guarding a step up (quickness wise) in projected position as he often guarded the other teams point guard and moved his feet well to keep in front of them. Luca by contrast (in the two games I watched) is guarding a step down in quickness to his projected position. He is guarding 4's in the Euro league. Players of that quickness level don't exist in the NBA.
The other major difference is Bogdan is extremely long for his height. He has a 6' 11" wingspan which allows him to be very disruptive defensively and to play slightly off the player he is guarding. I can't find Luca's wingspan but looking at his picture his upper arm doesn't seem extremely long. Given his wingspan isn't listed I would guess it's within a normal range for the population and below normal for NBA basketball players.
Two games is by no means definitive but it certainly raises questions and doesn't make him an automatic pick at 2. I would also love to know what is his wingspan as length really matters for a 3 or 4.
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Maybe but I just found something interesting. You can't find a measurement of Doncic's standing reach or wingspan anywhere on the internet. Why is that? Why can you for everyone one else and not for him? What is his camp hiding?
I was a big Doncic supporter but I am increasingly becoming concerned he isn't the right guy.
I was a big Doncic supporter but I am increasingly becoming concerned he isn't the right guy.
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