Rebuild...ahead of schedule?
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
Forget Buddy on the Pels. If you take what he did on the Kings as his real rookie season, he's pretty close to an obvious future star. He shot the freaking lights out. Who here would disagree that with no player since Peja did you have that level of confidence when the ball left his hands from behind the arc?
Right on the money, man! Buddy is a star if there ever was one. It was clear at OSU and his 25 game with us. He changes ends extremely well. His 3% with us would have good for 6th in the NBA. And when he is run off the line he can shoot the floater off either foot under control with soft touch.....not even Klay has that shot! He also finishes strong with the left hand at the rim. He only lacks superior length and hops but makes up for with touch and footwork and non-stop movement to create space.
For a young guy he does an excellent job of differentiating between good shots and shots to pass up. This discretion is a very important.
I knew Buddy was star before draft like I can say with confidence Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox, Donovan and Isaac will be stars in this draft. Where there would be the concern would be if spot up shots or one dribble shots and straight line drives were the extent of his offensive repertoire. Then you would know the opponent could take away his strength and render him ineffective. But he draws and dishes, resets, moves without the ball, has good body balance, incredible work ethic, etc. He is pretty much close to a sure thing. It is only matter of how good he will become. I anticipate he will be our leading scorer next season at 16-20 PPG.
For a young guy he does an excellent job of differentiating between good shots and shots to pass up. This discretion is a very important.
I knew Buddy was star before draft like I can say with confidence Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox, Donovan and Isaac will be stars in this draft. Where there would be the concern would be if spot up shots or one dribble shots and straight line drives were the extent of his offensive repertoire. Then you would know the opponent could take away his strength and render him ineffective. But he draws and dishes, resets, moves without the ball, has good body balance, incredible work ethic, etc. He is pretty much close to a sure thing. It is only matter of how good he will become. I anticipate he will be our leading scorer next season at 16-20 PPG.
Nice analysis.
So, Vlade was effectively able to turn, Marco, Boogie, and the 2016 8th pick to
Malachi
Papa
Skal
Bogdan
Buddy
Fox
Jackson
Giles
Mason
That's actually a pretty good haul. While we didn't get good value for Boogie, our unique draft situation made the returns more palatable.
A lot depends on how these kids develop, but the fact that many of these guys showed promise last year (for the rookies, in college), gives hope that at least some of them can become stars. I do agree that we need at least 2 all stars, and the way the league is going, 3. They all needn't be from this group. If some of them (along with Willie and next year's picks) are good rotational players, we can use some of them to get a star.
So, Vlade was effectively able to turn, Marco, Boogie, and the 2016 8th pick to
Malachi
Papa
Skal
Bogdan
Buddy
Fox
Jackson
Giles
Mason
That's actually a pretty good haul. While we didn't get good value for Boogie, our unique draft situation made the returns more palatable.
A lot depends on how these kids develop, but the fact that many of these guys showed promise last year (for the rookies, in college), gives hope that at least some of them can become stars. I do agree that we need at least 2 all stars, and the way the league is going, 3. They all needn't be from this group. If some of them (along with Willie and next year's picks) are good rotational players, we can use some of them to get a star.
You're leaving out Vlade's negatives in your callout. Vlade turned...
2016 #8
Belinelli
Cousins
2017 #3
2019 1st rounder
into
Papagiannis (via 2016 #8)
Labissiere (via 2016 #8)
Bogdanovic (via 2016 #8)
Richardson (via Belinelli)
Hield (via Cousins)
Jackson (via Cousins)
Giles (via Cousins)
Fox (via #3)
Koufos (via 2019 1st Rounder - cap space)
2016 #8
Belinelli
Cousins
2017 #3
2019 1st rounder
into
Papagiannis (via 2016 #8)
Labissiere (via 2016 #8)
Bogdanovic (via 2016 #8)
Richardson (via Belinelli)
Hield (via Cousins)
Jackson (via Cousins)
Giles (via Cousins)
Fox (via #3)
Koufos (via 2019 1st Rounder - cap space)
First of all I also think that this rebuild have been excellent. But to me it seems unlikely that we have a star in the roster, Fox might become one. Hield will be a great offensive player but he has some flaws in his game. He doesnt have the first step, finnishing ability and passing ability to become a great number one option. He is gonna be a great shooter and probably a great second or third option. Skal has major issues with his basketball iq but assuming he developes that, he will be a good starter, slight possibility to becoming a 20/10 type of player. Papa G is way more likely to be out of the league than being a star, could become a starting caliber center though. Giles is an absolute unknown and I cant say much about him. WCS has all the abilities to become an awesome modern day center but has been a little disapointing.
All I'm saying that we have a WONDERFUL core in place and drafting a franchise player would really get this franchise to a situation where we would transform in to a regular playoff team, possible western conference finalist for many years.
I'm trying to be practical and think few years ahed and trying to evaluate where this franchise is headed. Being realist, I think its unlikely that we have a franchise player in our team at the moment. We have a lot of players that project to be good starters and great players with a slight chance someone grows to be a real star. Therefore I would advocate us to ensure that we are in a best possible situation to draft a player that could be a real star. Missing out on a star player in a draft would leave us in a position that in order for us to become a team with high ceiling, someone from our current group needs to become a real star.
I'm trying to compare the downside to winning 18 games next season to the upside of better draft position and I think the upside is much bigger than the downside. And to be clear, the team should play as hard as they can, they should compete and play hard defence and not lose on purpose. If for example Skal becomes a MIP and Buddy becomes a 22point scorer and team wins because of that then great. I just wouldnt like to win games by Hill, Kosta, Zbo and Temple playing 30+minutes. Losing good draft position because of that wouldnt be worth it to me. Again comparing the value of vets winning us games to the value of good draf position, a good draft position is more valuable.
Thats just my opinion but Im trying to base it on facts and odds and objective thinking. Im trying to think which route is best for us to take and to me its trying to draft that missing piece. These current vets are great for mentoring role and with them I think the 20 win season wouldnt have that much of a negative effect that it would be bigger than the upside of good draft position
All I'm saying that we have a WONDERFUL core in place and drafting a franchise player would really get this franchise to a situation where we would transform in to a regular playoff team, possible western conference finalist for many years.
I'm trying to be practical and think few years ahed and trying to evaluate where this franchise is headed. Being realist, I think its unlikely that we have a franchise player in our team at the moment. We have a lot of players that project to be good starters and great players with a slight chance someone grows to be a real star. Therefore I would advocate us to ensure that we are in a best possible situation to draft a player that could be a real star. Missing out on a star player in a draft would leave us in a position that in order for us to become a team with high ceiling, someone from our current group needs to become a real star.
I'm trying to compare the downside to winning 18 games next season to the upside of better draft position and I think the upside is much bigger than the downside. And to be clear, the team should play as hard as they can, they should compete and play hard defence and not lose on purpose. If for example Skal becomes a MIP and Buddy becomes a 22point scorer and team wins because of that then great. I just wouldnt like to win games by Hill, Kosta, Zbo and Temple playing 30+minutes. Losing good draft position because of that wouldnt be worth it to me. Again comparing the value of vets winning us games to the value of good draf position, a good draft position is more valuable.
Thats just my opinion but Im trying to base it on facts and odds and objective thinking. Im trying to think which route is best for us to take and to me its trying to draft that missing piece. These current vets are great for mentoring role and with them I think the 20 win season wouldnt have that much of a negative effect that it would be bigger than the upside of good draft position
That's why I'm waiting to see what happens with Buddy. A couple months of good play after a disastrous first half with N.O. doesn't tell us much other the fact that he has the ability to be a good player but we need more than just a small sample size. Thornton is a perfect example of that. We all thought that dude was going to light it up for years to come but he peaked in his first 25 games with us and was just an inefficient chucker after that.
Still too early, but man oh man ... I was just reading through the cousins thread (when he was traded) and I certainly a whole lot different than I did on that night. I can't believe we're in this position just months after that deal.
Hopefully Briklayer and Piksi and other old members return one day.
Hopefully Briklayer and Piksi and other old members return one day.
The Kings are going to be fun to watch. They will be fast and show some great skills, but they are green as a grass. The new look Kings are a bunch of slightly built greyhounds with the exception of Randolph and Kosta. Physical teams are likely to bother them. The Kings are likely to be a run and shoot team which is the trend now in the NBA. Get up and down and launch threes. But in order to win games it takes defense. That is the hardest thing for the new players.
We can't expect the total wins to increase much. But we can expect to see more talent on the floor than we have seen in 10 years. As usual it is all about the future with this team.
We can't expect the total wins to increase much. But we can expect to see more talent on the floor than we have seen in 10 years. As usual it is all about the future with this team.
How can any of us possibly know how good any of these young guys will be? Why would a pick in 2018 have any greater likelihood of being a Star than one of the current crop of young blue chip prospects? The greater likelihood is that one of the young guys currently on the roster breaks out rather than a random pick in 2018.
IMO it is important to make the Kings as winning an organization as possible as soon as possible. My one requirement is that the Kings retain and develop all the young talent they can lay their hands on. Value is created by developing young players into good rotational players and the Kings are just starting to do that. The 2018 pick will work itself out. I'm also tired of hearing about the "lost" 2019 pick.
Here's where patience is important. I think the FO (ownership?) panicked too early last year and we went into "blow it up" mode, resulting in (on paper) strong draft results. What if the team is winning at a respectable clip, and they look like they'll end up with a lower lottery pick this upcoming year? Are they going to be so hell-bent on getting that high pick in 2018 that they're going to sacrifice the progress that they've been making in 2017? We can't keep relying on next year's draft class. At some point, we're going to have to go to war with and develop who we have, and let the chips fall where they may. If this current roster isn't good enough to make noise, then the pick will bear itself out, and we'll have a high pick in 2018 without having to "tank". If this combination of youth AND vets seems to be gelling and making positive progress, then damn the draft. You don't get better by always trying to land the first pick in the draft year after year after year.
I have a feeling this year will give us the FO's true intentions.
I have a feeling this year will give us the FO's true intentions.
By trading down in the last two drafts Divac has offered up the possibility that the rebuild is ahead of schedule. He has many more potential NBA players on his team than he would have had by just taking WCS, then Chriss, then Fox and Colins. But we won't know for at least three more years what we really have, in terms of stars, if then. Like I've said before, you could have three or four future stars on this team already. How many people thought Isaiah Thomas would be a star? How many thought Hayward would be a star? Looking three years into the future, the key for Divac is going to be to identify those players who are going to be stars on this team long before they enter into FA so he can extend them into long term contracts and not get "Haywarded" for all of his time, trouble and expense.
Because usually the superstars are number 1 or 2 pick in the draft. There is statisticall data out there that tells the likelyhood of the pick to become all star and it decreases as the number of pick gets lower. For example:
http://sports.sites.yale.edu/nba-draft-pick-value
https://www.google.fi/amp/fansided....e-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/amp/
As you can see you actually have data to base an expectation on what you can gain from the draft. It would be stupid to just go ahead and say "the '18 pick will work itself out" especially if the options are 1-3 lottery seed or tenth pick in the draft. The difference is MASSIVE as you can see:
I'll say it again: positive effects from getting a good lottery position are greater than the positive effects to getting max amount of wins by playing vets a lot. It might not be as fun for a fan in short term but denying the situation wont do anyone any good
http://sports.sites.yale.edu/nba-draft-pick-value
https://www.google.fi/amp/fansided....e-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/amp/
As you can see you actually have data to base an expectation on what you can gain from the draft. It would be stupid to just go ahead and say "the '18 pick will work itself out" especially if the options are 1-3 lottery seed or tenth pick in the draft. The difference is MASSIVE as you can see:
I'll say it again: positive effects from getting a good lottery position are greater than the positive effects to getting max amount of wins by playing vets a lot. It might not be as fun for a fan in short term but denying the situation wont do anyone any good
Nobody is putting Buddy on a banner right now only saying he looked impressive and he did. As for the Thornton comp MT was a hell of a scorer early on but his knocks were always being inconsistent and he also stopped attacking the paint for one reason or another. Not things I worry about with Buddy.
True. But no one knew how bad that draft was going to be one year prior. There isn't a franchise player in every draft, and I see no compelling reason to believe there is one in next year's draft. There are some good young players, but I don't know if they will be better than what we already have. The next can't miss player I know of will be in the 2019 draft.
For example Porter looks like a player that will be great. And since Kings dont have '19 pick its important that we are in a position to draft a good player next draft.
You cant keep living in denial just because you dont have patience to wait one year. Diminishing the value of a draft is just stupid. Look at the all nba teams. How many of those players were drafted by their team? It doesnt make sence to throw out an example of a worst draft in nba history, you need to look at the average values of a certain draft pick. Anything else is stupid at this point when we have not seen a lot of these prospects play college ball.
You cant keep living in denial just because you dont have patience to wait one year. Diminishing the value of a draft is just stupid. Look at the all nba teams. How many of those players were drafted by their team? It doesnt make sence to throw out an example of a worst draft in nba history, you need to look at the average values of a certain draft pick. Anything else is stupid at this point when we have not seen a lot of these prospects play college ball.
I don't think the goal is win as many game as possible by playing vets (Hill, Kosta, Zbo and Temple) 30+ MPG. I think the goal is win as many games as possible by having vets on your roster to support individual and collective success and defer to the coach to allocate MPG. The team winning 35 games for example and getting 14th pick is superior to winning 18 games and getting the 2nd pick. In the former case you likely had guys perform and validate their expectation or exceeding. The team was cohesive to come together and overcome their inexperience and youth and win. You likely have guys building on rookie years and rookies landing on the All-Rookie team.
In latter case you have a team that only gets "schedule wins", does no better than an expansion team. You likely have guys under-performing or regressing and possible fractured locker room. Can you play hard and most player meet or exceed expectations be on a path to a dominant team and win 18 games with the roster as currently constructed? I don't think so. There's too much talent on the roster offensively and defensively to not approach 30 wins at least if the team plays together. I don't think we can be one of the worst 5 teams next year and think we are on the path to prominence and relevance. Look at these crappy teams:
tl/dr.....just win baby
In latter case you have a team that only gets "schedule wins", does no better than an expansion team. You likely have guys under-performing or regressing and possible fractured locker room. Can you play hard and most player meet or exceed expectations be on a path to a dominant team and win 18 games with the roster as currently constructed? I don't think so. There's too much talent on the roster offensively and defensively to not approach 30 wins at least if the team plays together. I don't think we can be one of the worst 5 teams next year and think we are on the path to prominence and relevance. Look at these crappy teams:
- Lakers
- Hawks
- Suns
- Knicks
- Bulls
- Magic
tl/dr.....just win baby