I too shall start with a disclaimer (two in fact)
- This is a longish post, so thanks in advance to all who take the trouble to read it.
- I am huge Petrie fan, so shall spend a good part defending his actions (or their lack of at times). Hopefully, shall be able to remain objective.
For all of us who miss the beautiful free flowing Kings offense, the precise ball movement, the backdoor cuts, and of course, consistent victories, current times are tough. The thing that bothers us more though is that we have started doubting Geoff's ability to take us back to that elite level. We are ready to suck for a season, if that speeds up the rebuilding process. Finally, the thing that bothers us most is that we seem to be consistently investing in tweeners and multi position role players, which seem to ensure mediocrity. Question obviously arises, if Geoff has a concrete plan, and what identity he wants to give to this team.
To begin with, let us acknowledge, that the current state is a direct result of mortgaging our future in an effort to win a championship during the golden years. We kept trading away our draft picks and young guys. In the process, we kept getting old and the veterans kept clogging the cap. Worst, since we were not a team constructed around one or two superstars, but several very good players, we didn't suck too badly, but deteriorated slowly as we lost talent to age, injuries and free agency (think the Pistons might mirror this over the next few years, unless Dumars comes up with some good moves). Could Geoff have done a better job? Sure, one can always do better. However, looking back, I think most of his moves, or non moves were good for the franchise.
Trades: Several big ones in the last few seasons.
Webber: Most controversial. I still believe this was a good trade for the Kings. The arguments on both sides have been repeated so often, that it is pointless to make them again.
Peja: Given Peja's injury, coupled with the fact that we might have lost him for nothing, or might have overpaid him, looks good (plus Ron's play and behavior last season). However, if Ron blows up, and Peja comes back from injury fine next season, this might look bad in the long run. Overall, good.
Doug: Iffy on this. With us letting Cat walk, we effectively lost Doug for nothing. That might still have happened next season, as part of "Alan Houston rule" (were the Kings in the LT territory that season?), but I think we might have beaten Seatle with Doug instead of Cat in the lineup in the playoffs.
Bobby (and Tag): The way Bonzi played against SA, and given Bobby's injury history, seems great. Losing him for nothing hurt though.
Skinner: Salary dump.
Darius: Steal for two second rounders.
Free agency:
Over the last two years, our main additions have been Reef and Salmons at MLE (Mo is fairly inconsequential). I think at their price, both are good (I know many people believe Salmons is overpaid, but his play so far, has been fairly good).
Losing talent to free agency:
I think this is one area that Petrie has not done well in. We let lot of talent walk in recent years.
GW: Lost him to Bobcats. Didn't read these boards at that time, so not sure what other people felt. I kept thinking that we should have exposed Doug. Definitely unfair to Doug, an established veteran who played his heart out every night, plus a central part of the team, with which we might have hoped for a final shot at the title. Given that we traded him later in the year for Cat, feels bad to lose GW for nothing.
Vlade: Probably the one that affected the team the most, in that we lost the leader. In terms of his post Kings production, Lakers offer was obviously outrageous, and Geoff was wise not to match it. Still miss him though, and feel the team would have better with him around.
Cat: Effectively Doug. Clippers offer way over the top. Good that we had Bonzi last year, and Martin this year.
Evans: This one hurts. However, as I understand, once we signed Reef, we couldn't keep him, even though we wanted to. So, won't blame Geoff for it.
Darius: Nice gesture by Petrie to allow him to become a FA, but again, losing him for nothing hurts.
Bonzi: Not Geoff's fault, and given his current injury woes, we probably dodged a bullet.
In most of the above cases, concern is not that we didn't resign the guys, but that we couldn't pull off a S&T. Not sure if Geoff tried but couldn't pull it off (recall hearing about S&T for Cat for Nene, and again with Bonzi last year). That's too much talent to lose though without compensation. Envy Suns for this, who got a lot out of Atlanta for JJ (and if they land a stud with Atlanta's high draft pick this year, it may go down as one of the worst trades, despite JJ playing so well).
Draft:
Over the last 3 years, we have picked Martin, Cisco, Price, Douby and (hopefully long term), Justin. Too early to tell about Douby and Justin, but Martin is clearly the steal of his draft. Hope Cisco grows up, and lives up to at least some of the potential he sometimes displays.
Problems:
The front court is obviously the main concern. We have decent players (including hopefully a blossoming all star) and depth at the 2-3 positions, and a very good PG. 4 and 5 of course, are a huge concern, particularly on the defensive end. Despite this, Geoff has been adding talent at 2-3 positions. Our first round pick for this year plays 1-2 (though Bibby's possible free agency at the end of this season might have prompted this decision), and our chief free agent signee plays 2-3 (though Muss has used him at 4 too
).
While the explaination that big guys drafted late rarely pan out is quite reasonable, Petrie needs to draft for position, or trade for big guys, even if it might mean losing on the talent to some extent. Case in point, the Lakers. They traded away Butler for Kwame. Butler has played exceedingly well, and the deal looks like a slam dunk for the Wizards. However, with Kobe and Lamar playing the same positions, Butler was slightly expendable, and the Lakers decided to take a chance on Kwame. Petrie might be forced to do something similar.
Finally, I think Petrie is very risk averse. To some extent, this is good, in the sense that risks that backfire might really set you back. However, it prevents a quantum jump too. For the last few years, we have been drafting guys who have played good years of college ball (they might not have gone to big programs, but stayed in college for several years). This minimizes risk, instead of gambling on say a high schooler, or freshman, but long term returns might be lower.
I don't know what is the mandate Petrie has from the Maloofs. Do they want to try for a playoff spot, or are they ok with trading away some of the core guys in order to get a higher pick. If the latter, Petrie should (most certainly shall) seriously explore trading away Artest and Reef (I don't think anyone would want Kenny's long contract). Regarding Brad, much as I wish that he could guard someone down low, and be at least a little athletic, he is one of the better big men. If we can get a good big next year, Brad can play next to him, and also act as his mentor. I would keep Bibby. Even if he does not opt out, he is still a fairly young and good floor leader, who shall have only two years left on his contract. If we trade him away, we might get stuck with a subpar PG, and worse, even overpay for him over a long term.
