The Official Lottery Thread - Kings get #5 and #10

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Capt. Factorial

Cantry Member
Staff member
Contributor
#8
Here are the actual odds, reposted from another thread:

Count on this:
8 & 10: 72.5%

These could reasonably happen:
9 & 11: 8.1%
9 & 10: 5.3%
5 & 10: 3.5%
9 only: 3.4%
6 & 10: 3.1%
3 & 10: 1.7%

These are pretty long shots:
2 & 10: 0.7%
6 & 11: 0.4%
10 only: 0.3%
10 & 11: 0.3%
7 & 10: 0.3%
10 & 12: 0.2%
6 only: 0.2%
7 & 11: 0.1%

Don't worry about it:
7 only: 0.05%
3 & 11: 0.04%
2 & 11: 0.02%
3 only: 0.02%
2 only: 0.01%

So you're saying there's a chance!:
No Picks: 0.005%
7 & 12: 0.004%
12 only: 0.003%
13 only: 0.0007%

Some summary stuff:
Chance we have two picks: 96%
Chance we have one pick: 4%
Chance we have no picks: 0.005%
Chance we have a top-three pick: 2.5%

Chance we lose the Pelicans' pick: 4%
Chance we lose our own pick: 0.008%

Chance we move up and swap: 10%
Chance we do better than 8 & 10: 9.8% (but it kind of depends on how you define "better"...e.g., is 7 & 11 better than 8 & 10?)
Odds we keep both picks and they are between 8-11: 86.2%
 

bajaden

Well-Known Member
#14
I'm gonna Co-sign this.

Our lotto luck is so bad, just us standing pat at the pre lotto position would feel like we lucked into landing #1.
Of course the other way of looking at it, is that the odds are, we'll finally get some good luck. The one time the Kings actually jumped up into the number one position, it was one of the weakest drafts in history. That was the Pervis Ellison draft.
 

Dime Dropper

Well-Known Member
#15
Could I be selfish and ask if a mod could update the title with our actual draft position after the lottery? I won't be able to stay up due to work tomorrow, and it'd be great to be able to check quickly in the morning without sifting through pages or discussion (or worse again, going to the mess that is nba.com)?

Might help out a few other Euro fans too.
 

gunks

Well-Known Member
#16
Of course the other way of looking at it, is that the odds are, we'll finally get some good luck. The one time the Kings actually jumped up into the number one position, it was one of the weakest drafts in history. That was the Pervis Ellison draft.
So considering we would have to swap with Philly if we land #1..... You may be right! This is our year! ;)

Anyways, fingers crossed for some good luck for once.

It would be kinda funny if the top 3 goes: 76ers, Kings, Pels...... We'd be unlucky with one pick, and super lucky with the other one! I wouldn't be mad (well, perhaps a bit irk'd at Vlade for allowing protection on that Pels pick)!
 

funkykingston

Well-Known Member
#20
This is the first lottery in years that I won't be watching. While I know there is a chance the Kings actually improve their lottery position, for some reason it just feels like yet again things will get worse. Moving to 9 & 11 would be bad enough but I have a really bad feeling the Pelicans will land a top three pick and the Kings will just have the 9th pick.

Next year the Pelican's pick will likely be in the middle of the first round 15-20 or so I'm guessing in a much weaker draft.

I'd love to be wrong but despite my understanding of statistics it just feels like the lottery doesn't ever seem to work out in the Kings' favor.
 

Kingz19

Well-Known Member
#21
Since Boston does not need a PG why not package #8 and #10 + something else to move up to Boston's spot?
They might want Jackson and I wouldn't rule out them drafting a PG. Ainge likes to stack assets regardless of position plus ITs deal is up after next season...and IT will always have suits questioning going forward with him when it's time to talk money. I love IT but I still question if he's the best player on a true contender. I can see Boston balking on maxing him out...especially when they'll have to start paying their other young players real money to keep their depth in tact. I think IT is out of Boston after next year.
 
#23
This is the first lottery in years that I won't be watching. While I know there is a chance the Kings actually improve their lottery position, for some reason it just feels like yet again things will get worse. Moving to 9 & 11 would be bad enough but I have a really bad feeling the Pelicans will land a top three pick and the Kings will just have the 9th pick.

Next year the Pelican's pick will likely be in the middle of the first round 15-20 or so I'm guessing in a much weaker draft.

I'd love to be wrong but despite my understanding of statistics it just feels like the lottery doesn't ever seem to work out in the Kings' favor.
Same. It just feels like in whatever universe we currently reside in, the Kings just aren't destined to see any sort of luck or hope. I'm going into this draft fully expecting the Pelicans to jump into the top 3. I know putting that negative thinking out their isn't great, but with our track record lately I fully expect it to have a higher chance of happening than it actually does.
 

Jimbob

Well-Known Member
#25
Of course the other way of looking at it, is that the odds are, we'll finally get some good luck. The one time the Kings actually jumped up into the number one position, it was one of the weakest drafts in history. That was the Pervis Ellison draft.
Ah yes, Never Nervous Pervis compliments of the legendary Bill Russel.
 
#26
I can't bear to watch either. I have a bad feeling.

Just to confirm....the big thing is to flip the #10 card and see Sacramento. If we aren't there we are looking at one pick only?
 

SLAB

Well-Known Member
#27
I'm convinced the Pelicans are keeping their pick. 4% has never seemed closer than to 100.

And just to add insult to injury, the Kings then WIN THE LOTTERY but have to swap with Philly who has the worst pick possible.
 
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