The New Players, Fit, and the Future

#1
Alec Burks has a smooth game. Shades of Tyreke, shades of John Salmons. Unless he becomes a blackhole like Salmons, he's going to boost our bench and allow us to push Bogie to the floor more often. Dudes also a much better defender than I assumed. He can legit guard 1 to 3 (except for the jumbo threes--thats where Barnes comes in).

Barnes is what we thought he was. Just a solid, all around player. Balances the perimeter defense, because of his size. We've been missing that quite a bit and it wasn't surprising to see Wade struggle immediately once Barnes was on him. Plus the switching.

I think our primary lineup will be Fox, Hield, Bogs, Barnes, and WCS/Bags/Giles at the 5 spot. Not the starting lineup, but the lineup that will see the most minutes going forward--and certainly at crunch time. Shump was traded, because the Fox, Hield, Bogs, Shump, WCS/Bags/Giles lineup needed another player (besides whoever is on the floor amongst WCS/Bags/Giles) to guard the four spot. Barnes can.

I love Miami's defense. They exploited our young bigs, contained Fox, and took advantage of having two new players on the floor at any given time. Switching from man, to full court press, to a 2-3 then a 3-2 zone. Surprised they stopped throwing the zone, because we never really exploited the high post area. WCS sucks when he has to operate from there, Bags is too raw, and Giles was a bad matchup against Whiteside on the opposite side of the floor.

Fox needs to shoot, at a minimum, 3 threes per game. Hopefully hitting at least one. Opposing defenses are pushing him right and shading the entire defense that way. Richardson looked like a star defender, but it wasn't really him. It was Whiteside playing goalie and the heat shading him. Utah will employ that philosophy and the Clips used to before they traded Bradley and Boban. Speaking of Bradley, I love that dudes defense.

Barring injury or an unforseen personality issue, I can see the Kings signing both Burks and Barnes beyond this season. Barnes if he restructures and Burks, because the Kings control his rights.

Good times. And looking at a bright future.
 
#3
We've got to find a way to win while the fellas get used to each other. The lack of flow last night was easy to see. I think that was one of the reasons Miami kept switching defensive strategies with us.

Two more games until the break.

I'm guessing post break things will be a whole lot smoother.
 
#4
I hope Barnes is the type of guy who realizes that his level of play does not match his expensive contract. He seems well-grounded so I'm thinking he'll be willing to look at a restructure, or signing for a much more reasonable contract once his is up. Maybe not...who knows. I like him though.
I would not hold my breath and I absolutely would not hold it against him for opting in. He may never get an opportunity to make 25 mil in one season again in his career
 
#6
Thinking of Barnes fit.. everyone talks about his iso game in a negative light. I think it could end up being a real asset for us. We have often struggled in half court offensive sets. He may very well instantly vault into being our best half court asset while maintaining our run and gun style with his athleticism.
 
#7
I'm almost certain he will opt in. Once that contract is up however I'm hoping he's open to something more reasonable.
He would never opt out, if he's going to lose money.

Dude seems to be EXTREMELY bright and also is at a stage in his career where he's already gotten the max. Assuming the Kings win over the next few months, makes the playoffs, he feels welcomed, and likes the community and opportunities here, the Kings would say:

1. Hey, Harrison, you have a $25M option next year.
2. What if we spread that out over the next 3 to 4 years, give you a salary that isn't quite $25M, but is comparable ($15M to $20M), and still allow you to get another contract at 29 or 30?

Dude thinks--I don't lose money, lock in a good (but not max) contract, and get to put roots in Sac (he's from Iowa--so not exactly a big city dude).

I think he does it--if he believes in the team's direction and loves the city.
 

Entity

Hall of Famer
#9
Thinking of Barnes fit.. everyone talks about his iso game in a negative light. I think it could end up being a real asset for us. We have often struggled in half court offensive sets. He may very well instantly vault into being our best half court asset while maintaining our run and gun style with his athleticism.
Yeah buddy is our best scorer but not an iso guy. Fox could be but doesn’t have the shooting range yet. Bogi can be but gets lost in the moment and the clock. Bagley and Barnes can be high level iso guys.
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#11
One of the misnomers about Barnes and it's kind of the same thing Rudy Gay had to deal with and Barnes is even less ball dominant than Rudy but, Barnes has never really been a black hole on offense. he's hovered around a 25 usg % even when he was the unquestioned go to in Dallas. Buddy and him are similar. They are almost too unselfish at times when it comes to getting theirs versus involving their teammates. Both just look like shot munchers because every once and awhile they take shots they shouldn't. Eh, what good offensive player doesn't? Depending on the situation their bad shot is still better than a great shot from a worse shooter.
 
#12
I'm almost certain he will opt in. Once that contract is up however I'm hoping he's open to something more reasonable.
He will be. Guys like him, Porter and Chandler Parsons, Ian Mahinmi, Mozgov, Deng were all the beneficiaries of teams being really dumb and thinking the cap was just going to shoot all the way to the moon. He's not going to have a market for 20+mil a year once his contract is up.

Would be surprised if he cost more than $15--$16mil/season.
 
#13
He will be. Guys like him, Porter and Chandler Parsons, Ian Mahinmi, Mozgov, Deng were all the beneficiaries of teams being really dumb and thinking the cap was just going to shoot all the way to the moon. He's not going to have a market for 20+mil a year once his contract is up.

Would be surprised if he cost more than $15--$16mil/season.
To be fair to Barnes, when he got that contract he was a young player that was the 5th starter on a record setting warriors team. I don’t think it was a crazy gamble by the mavs to see if there was a young superstar ready to break out when given a bigger role.
 
#14
I would not hold my breath and I absolutely would not hold it against him for opting in. He may never get an opportunity to make 25 mil in one season again in his career
Oh he's opting in for sure. I think OP meant after that, but they can correct that if I'm wrong.

I do think he'll sign for a more reasonable deal after that however. That fits ok with our timeline of having to sign our key guys though.
 
#15
Oh he's opting in for sure. I think OP meant after that, but they can correct that if I'm wrong.

I do think he'll sign for a more reasonable deal after that however. That fits ok with our timeline of having to sign our key guys though.
Who knows, maybe we’ll be looking at an even bigger upgrade altogether by then if this team keeps trending the way it has and the respect around the league continues to build.
 
#16
I don’t think that Barnes will opt out of his contract but I do think that there is a good chance that he signs a contract extension at a lower value with the Kings this summer similar to how Rudy Gay did it and then dumb and dumber proceeded to fire the coach who was a big reason of why he signed.
 
#17
Barnes would have to opt out, before he could sign a new contract. The contract would pay him less than $25m next year, but would give him more years at something that is more than what he could get on the market. The something more than what he could get on the market would effectively equate to the premium on his his $25m getting spread out over the length of his next contract.

Barnes does it, because he gets more years and doesn’t lose any money. And if it’s 3 to 4 yrs, he gets another contract after this next one.
Kings do it, if they need more moneynext year to pursue one big time player or players. I think the Kings have around $22m next year as is. More if they renounce WCS’ RFA rights.

Not saying it’ll happen, but if it does, that’s how it’ll work.
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#18
Barnes would have to opt out, before he could sign a new contract. The contract would pay him less than $25m next year, but would give him more years at something that is more than what he could get on the market. The something more than what he could get on the market would effectively equate to the premium on his his $25m getting spread out over the length of his next contract.

Barnes does it, because he gets more years and doesn’t lose any money. And if it’s 3 to 4 yrs, he gets another contract after this next one.
Kings do it, if they need more moneynext year to pursue one big time player or players. I think the Kings have around $22m next year as is. More if they renounce WCS’ RFA rights.

Not saying it’ll happen, but if it does, that’s how it’ll work.
It looks like we will have about $31M in cap room if Barnes opts in to the final year of his deal, assuming we exercise our team options on Yogi and Mason, which seems likely. We'll also have about $31M in cap holds between WCS and Burks (I assume we'll renounce Kosta's), so we'll have to deal with those guys or make some other sort of move before we can use any of that cap space.

There are actually two ways we could hold on to Barnes long term this summer. The first is as you mentioned, if he opts out and hits the free agent market, where you propose that we make a slight overpay to compensate for the loss of the $25M year he opted out of.

However, the other option, which Barnes would probably prefer if he's not sure what his market value is, would be for Barnes to opt in to his contract, and then for us to negotiate an extension. Under those circumstances, an extension could be at a lower salary than the last year of the active contract. I don't think you see that sort of lower-value extension very often, but it is allowed so long as he opts in (if he opts out, he can be extended as long as the option+extension are completed before free agency opens, but then the value of the first option year cannot be less than the salary in the non-exercised year).

My guess is that unless Barnes is super unhappy here, or he thinks he can actually beat his current option year's value (!!), he will opt in and keep an eye on the market for guys like Middleton and Tobias Harris as a ceiling for what he could get on the open market (and, let's be honest, he should multiply by 0.8 or so on top of that). But if he gets a good vibe (particularly if we make a push into the playoffs and he sees a future and a good fit with our young guys) that he might be willing to extend for say three years to try to put a run together here. In that scenario I'd guess that he'd probably get something short of $20M a year, but not a lot short.
 
#19
It looks like we will have about $31M in cap room if Barnes opts in to the final year of his deal, assuming we exercise our team options on Yogi and Mason, which seems likely. We'll also have about $31M in cap holds between WCS and Burks (I assume we'll renounce Kosta's), so we'll have to deal with those guys or make some other sort of move before we can use any of that cap space.

There are actually two ways we could hold on to Barnes long term this summer. The first is as you mentioned, if he opts out and hits the free agent market, where you propose that we make a slight overpay to compensate for the loss of the $25M year he opted out of.

However, the other option, which Barnes would probably prefer if he's not sure what his market value is, would be for Barnes to opt in to his contract, and then for us to negotiate an extension. Under those circumstances, an extension could be at a lower salary than the last year of the active contract. I don't think you see that sort of lower-value extension very often, but it is allowed so long as he opts in (if he opts out, he can be extended as long as the option+extension are completed before free agency opens, but then the value of the first option year cannot be less than the salary in the non-exercised year).

My guess is that unless Barnes is super unhappy here, or he thinks he can actually beat his current option year's value (!!), he will opt in and keep an eye on the market for guys like Middleton and Tobias Harris as a ceiling for what he could get on the open market (and, let's be honest, he should multiply by 0.8 or so on top of that). But if he gets a good vibe (particularly if we make a push into the playoffs and he sees a future and a good fit with our young guys) that he might be willing to extend for say three years to try to put a run together here. In that scenario I'd guess that he'd probably get something short of $20M a year, but not a lot short.
Seems to be $25.2. Factoring in holds n legacy money, I believe:

 
#20
Please no George Hill type signings this off-season.

As I have said before I think the entire core and future of this team is already on the current roster. Just have to let that core grow and mature. This also means in 2-3 years you gotta start paying big money to all of the core players.

If WCS does leave then obviously you have to sign another big. The Kings may possibly need to upgrade at backup PG as well. Yogi has played really well lately and has been perfect in the backup role at times but will have to see how he does as the season closes out.

One thing the Kings cannot do is lockup all 25 million of that capspace to long term deals this summer. That's how you end up in luxury tax problems three years later when you have to sign your own guys. That's how you end up in scenarios where you have to let a guy like Giles walk in free agency because you're too far over the cap.

Enhance the roster with financial deals that make sense long term.
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#22
Seems to be $25.2. Factoring in holds n legacy money, I believe:

Well, I don't know who Keith Smith is. Unfortunately, he doesn't show the individual salaries he's using to make his calculations (or even his cap estimate) so it's hard to know what the basis for his numbers may be. Over the years I've used lots of salary sites. Right now my favorite is Basketball Insiders, which projects us to have $78M in maximum committed money (including dead money, of which we only have Matt Barnes carrying over at this point), on a cap of approximately $109M, so that's where I got my $31M number.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/sacramento-kings-team-salary/

In fact, I didn't realize earlier that the sum at the bottom of the Basketball Insiders sheet includes the value of WCS's QO, which in my opinion it shouldn't, as the QO is almost never actually taken. Either it's not offered in the first place, or the player negotiates a different contract as an RFA most of the time. That means that our cap space, not counting cap holds ($31M for WCS/Burks), would actually be $37M. I'm not sure if Keith Smith is factoring in Willie's cap hold, but not Burks' or Koufos' (though that still doesn't quite explain the discrepancy) or what his methodology is.

I would note that for independent verification, Hoopshype has similar (but not identical) numbers:

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/sacramento_kings/

HH and BI disagree on the exact size of the Ferrell contract (though not in any substantive way), HH somehow does not include the team option on Mason next year, and HH does not include the Matt Barnes dead money. Otherwise, the numbers appear to be the same, so I feel relatively confident in them.

So actually, we have the ability to have about $37M in cap space next summer, if we bring back none of WCS/Burks/Koufos - and even a bit more (up to almost $5M) if we don't guarantee the contracts of Ferrell/Mason (but I think we do).
 
#23
Well, I don't know who Keith Smith is. Unfortunately, he doesn't show the individual salaries he's using to make his calculations (or even his cap estimate) so it's hard to know what the basis for his numbers may be. Over the years I've used lots of salary sites. Right now my favorite is Basketball Insiders, which projects us to have $78M in maximum committed money (including dead money, of which we only have Matt Barnes carrying over at this point), on a cap of approximately $109M, so that's where I got my $31M number.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/sacramento-kings-team-salary/

In fact, I didn't realize earlier that the sum at the bottom of the Basketball Insiders sheet includes the value of WCS's QO, which in my opinion it shouldn't, as the QO is almost never actually taken. Either it's not offered in the first place, or the player negotiates a different contract as an RFA most of the time. That means that our cap space, not counting cap holds ($31M for WCS/Burks), would actually be $37M. I'm not sure if Keith Smith is factoring in Willie's cap hold, but not Burks' or Koufos' (though that still doesn't quite explain the discrepancy) or what his methodology is.

I would note that for independent verification, Hoopshype has similar (but not identical) numbers:

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/sacramento_kings/

HH and BI disagree on the exact size of the Ferrell contract (though not in any substantive way), HH somehow does not include the team option on Mason next year, and HH does not include the Matt Barnes dead money. Otherwise, the numbers appear to be the same, so I feel relatively confident in them.

So actually, we have the ability to have about $37M in cap space next summer, if we bring back none of WCS/Burks/Koufos - and even a bit more (up to almost $5M) if we don't guarantee the contracts of Ferrell/Mason (but I think we do).
I can figure out the exact figure, but would rather rely on a resource like Smitty, who is solid. He’s factoring in cap holds n QO. The QO matters, because it preserves the team’s ability to execute a sign and trade, Even if the Kings do not intend to sign WCS, they should extend the QO. Only reason not to is if they have a Lebrun type ready to sign n they need the space.
 

Capt. Factorial

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things
Staff member
#24
I can figure out the exact figure, but would rather rely on a resource like Smitty, who is solid. He’s factoring in cap holds n QO. The QO matters, because it preserves the team’s ability to execute a sign and trade, Even if the Kings do not intend to sign WCS, they should extend the QO. Only reason not to is if they have a Lebrun type ready to sign n they need the space.
Well, he's obviously not factoring in all of our cap holds, because between WCS/Burks/Koufos we wouldn't have any cap space. And there's no reason to factor in a QO until the player accepts the QO, because before that the value is the cap hold, not the QO.

Again, I have no idea what Smith is counting because he's just giving a single number and not telling us how he got it. It's your prerogative to simply believe that if you like because he's "solid" (whoever he is, I've never heard of him). But a site like Basketball Insiders gives you ALL the numbers and you can decide for yourself whether to factor in various things, such as the Koufos cap hold.

You know, cap space is a bit too amorphous of a thing to be captured by a single number this far out. Most teams, like the Kings, have multiple decisions to make (and players who can make decisions) that affect that cap space significantly, so you can't just single in on a number until those decisions are made. Until that time (and that includes now and basically all the time until at least July 1, because most of those decisions don't come before then) expressing cap space in a single number requires making assumptions - and saying "this is my best guess" without listing off one's assumptions isn't very useful.
 

VF21

#KingsFansForever
Staff member
#25
I can figure out the exact figure, but would rather rely on a resource like Smitty, who is solid. He’s factoring in cap holds n QO. The QO matters, because it preserves the team’s ability to execute a sign and trade, Even if the Kings do not intend to sign WCS, they should extend the QO. Only reason not to is if they have a Lebrun type ready to sign n they need the space.
You say he's solid but WHO IS HE?
 
#26
It looks like we will have about $31M in cap room if Barnes opts in to the final year of his deal, assuming we exercise our team options on Yogi and Mason, which seems likely. We'll also have about $31M in cap holds between WCS and Burks (I assume we'll renounce Kosta's), so we'll have to deal with those guys or make some other sort of move before we can use any of that cap space.

There are actually two ways we could hold on to Barnes long term this summer. The first is as you mentioned, if he opts out and hits the free agent market, where you propose that we make a slight overpay to compensate for the loss of the $25M year he opted out of.

However, the other option, which Barnes would probably prefer if he's not sure what his market value is, would be for Barnes to opt in to his contract, and then for us to negotiate an extension. Under those circumstances, an extension could be at a lower salary than the last year of the active contract. I don't think you see that sort of lower-value extension very often, but it is allowed so long as he opts in (if he opts out, he can be extended as long as the option+extension are completed before free agency opens, but then the value of the first option year cannot be less than the salary in the non-exercised year).

My guess is that unless Barnes is super unhappy here, or he thinks he can actually beat his current option year's value (!!), he will opt in and keep an eye on the market for guys like Middleton and Tobias Harris as a ceiling for what he could get on the open market (and, let's be honest, he should multiply by 0.8 or so on top of that). But if he gets a good vibe (particularly if we make a push into the playoffs and he sees a future and a good fit with our young guys) that he might be willing to extend for say three years to try to put a run together here. In that scenario I'd guess that he'd probably get something short of $20M a year, but not a lot short.
I could see Barnes opting in next year with the knowledge that the free agent class the year after this next offseason is generally bad (I have not researched this, but that is what most nba “insiders” mention, so I’ll take them at their word). He assesses his market value in a weak free agent class and decides if he’s happy in Sac.
 
#30
What are they doing? So far Brewer only addition that I’m enjoying so far
Yeah it's been pretty bad so far. Brewer has been good. Barnes' defense has been solid. Other than that, nothing.

Only good thing is Barnes and Burks haven't been trying to force things on offense. I'd rather Barnes go 0-4 than 2-12 trying to force shots up.