The Imperfect Science of Tankology (split from Bizarro thread)

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#4
I hope Sterling drops the hammer on him. Not good for the sport.
So...did you mean Silver? Or was your comment a rather clever twist on his name, with the added bonus that it is the same as one of the most reviled persons to ever be associated with the NBA?
 
#9
I doubt he cares. Cuban is about winning and he knows he is much more likely to win with Ayton than Carter.
I wonder if there is anything more he can do besides fine him? It would serve him right if they determined that games that they sit out too many players or whatever, don't count in the standings, but I don't think there is anyway they can do that. I have been wondering all season if tanking gets too blatant if they won't take some action other than fining or suspension.
 
#10
It’s clear we’re not catching Dallas tank and Atlanta has said they’ll be resting Schroeder and Bazemore so we’re not catching them either. Phoenix just sucks there not even tanking which is embarrassing I doubt we get behind them. We’re probably fighting for 3-8 with Orlando, Memphis, Chicago and Brooklyn. I doubt Brooklyn and Memphis out lose us.
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#11
At some point, possibly even this season we will bear witness to an abomination game where BOTH teams will be siting all their starters with made up injuries in open encouragement of their respective teams loosing. Then after the booing of the crowd has stopped and the scathing write ups are out the league will make some meaningful changes in the draft to end this madness.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#12
I wonder if there is anything more he can do besides fine him? It would serve him right if they determined that games that they sit out too many players or whatever, don't count in the standings, but I don't think there is anyway they can do that. I have been wondering all season if tanking gets too blatant if they won't take some action other than fining or suspension.
I think Cuban may have jumped the shark this time, with the result being that Adam Silver HAS to do something to protect the integrity of the game. There are already a lot of fans who pay very high prices for tickets to see certain players only to find said player "resting" for that particular game. Money talks and I'm pretty sure Silver has heard an earful.
 
#13
At some point, possibly even this season we will bear witness to an abomination game where BOTH teams will be siting all their starters with made up injuries in open encouragement of their respective teams loosing. Then after the booing of the crowd has stopped and the scathing write ups are out the league will make some meaningful changes in the draft to end this madness.
The draft has nothing to do with it. It’s the nature of the game where a single player can make the difference between a Championship or barely qualifying for the playoffs. If you really want to fix tanking make all players unrestricted free agents 3 years in with a hard cap on salary around 75M. Sacramento would never compete.

For those complaining about LINS they ought to understand LINS are the only way small market teams have a chance to compete.
 
#14
I think Cuban may have jumped the shark this time, with the result being that Adam Silver HAS to do something to protect the integrity of the game. There are already a lot of fans who pay very high prices for tickets to see certain players only to find said player "resting" for that particular game. Money talks and I'm pretty sure Silver has heard an earful.
For what? Speaking the truth everyone knows? Mark has clearly spelled out the drivers and how to fix it which I outlined in the post above.

Mark may be a too smart for his own good and unwilling to be a hypocrite but Silver is going to have to decide: does he want to permanently hose the Sacramento’s of the world or live with the LIN race.
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#15
The draft has nothing to do with it. It’s the nature of the game where a single player can make the difference between a Championship or barely qualifying for the playoffs. If you really want to fix tanking make all players unrestricted free agents 3 years in with a hard cap on salary around 75M. Sacramento would never compete.

For those complaining about LINS they ought to understand LINS are the only way small market teams have a chance to compete.
As with virtually all problems there are more than one solution out there. It is a quesiotn of how the problem is understood and a willingness o try one or more of the solutions.
 
#16
As with virtually all problems there are more than one solution out there. It is a quesiotn of how the problem is understood and a willingness o try one or more of the solutions.
Sure but none of those solutions would involve changing the draft options as it only sets a different line for which people to tank.
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#17
Sure but none of those solutions would involve changing the draft options as it only sets a different line for which people to tank.
That is just not true. There are multiple solutions that while not prohibitive of tanking would make it less desirable and therefore less likely. For example giving the bottom 5 teams equal odds and drawing all 5 slots, or only taking the top 7 teams by record into the play offs and creating wild card slots for the 8th seed. These are just two quick suggestions out of dozens I have heard over the years.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#18
There have been some good discussions here in the past that presented a number of potential changes to the draft that would minimize tanking while still allowing all teams equal chances at getting better through said draft. The idea that the only way for small market teams to improve is through the draft is not true. Sacramento stands as a prime example. Had Webber not collapsed that night in Dallas we would have most likely won the NBA Championship and it would have been done primarily through trades and one key free agent signing (thanks again, Vlade!)

If a draft system cannot be fair, it needs to be eliminated. The idea that HUGE market teams are now driving Shermans through their season repeatedly is more disruptive to the game than at least looking at making such actions prohibited. Personally, I think the draft order should be set at the midpoint of the season. At least that way we'd see 40 or so legitimate games as teams would have no reason to tank after their draft position was determined. And that's just one idea off the top of my head that would take away the post New Year diving contests currently being conducted.

What's going on right now is not fair to the fan who pays way too much good money to see one or two games. They aren't concerned about what happens in the future. They go to see a game and to root for their team to win. The mere fact that's been bastardized by teams forgetting what their real purpose is confounds me. Season ticket holders aren't paying thousands of dollars a year to watch the franchise star "rest" on the sidelines.
 
#19
There have been some good discussions here in the past that presented a number of potential changes to the draft that would minimize tanking while still allowing all teams equal chances at getting better through said draft. The idea that the only way for small market teams to improve is through the draft is not true. Sacramento stands as a prime example. Had Webber not collapsed that night in Dallas we would have most likely won the NBA Championship and it would have been done primarily through trades and one key free agent signing (thanks again, Vlade!)

If a draft system cannot be fair, it needs to be eliminated. The idea that HUGE market teams are now driving Shermans through their season repeatedly is more disruptive to the game than at least looking at making such actions prohibited. Personally, I think the draft order should be set at the midpoint of the season. At least that way we'd see 40 or so legitimate games as teams would have no reason to tank after their draft position was determined. And that's just one idea off the top of my head that would take away the post New Year diving contests currently being conducted.

What's going on right now is not fair to the fan who pays way too much good money to see one or two games. They aren't concerned about what happens in the future. They go to see a game and to root for their team to win. The mere fact that's been bastardized by teams forgetting what their real purpose is confounds me. Season ticket holders aren't paying thousands of dollars a year to watch the franchise star "rest" on the sidelines.
There is no doubt that tht team was build via trade but if we trace back the assets, they originate from the draft. We got Richmond because Don Nelson had one of his brain fades and traded an all-star for Owen (pick 3). Mitch eventually was traded for Webber.

We drafted Williamson and traded him for Christie. We drafted Peja, Hedo, Williams who later were used to bring in the likes of Bibby, Miller, Artest.

While trading is super important for a small market team, the way you get the assets to trade really originate from the draft. Sacramento has never been a big free agency attraction except in the days where we were genuine contenders where veterans signed on for cheap as they are now doing with Houston, Warriors et al.

Making the draft count, means not only do you aquire talent but also potential trade currency. If you keep wasting your picks, then you have no curency and you are in constant cycle in the gutter.

I still believe that the cheapest way to build for a small amrket team especially is via a draft. Once you get lucky with a couple of franchise players and young basketball operations side of franchise is in a good position, it makes your life easier. It is cheaper to draft a franchise player than it is to draft one not only in terms of money but also trade assets.

SA have been the absolute masters of this. They lucked into Duncan which obviously made life easier for them but they still used late 1st round pick to draft Parker and pick 59 to draft Manu. That made thier life easier for a while because they were able to use draft picks to draft players who fit their system, play those players while they are on their rookie deals and then trade them to maximize on their value because re-signing them would mean spending money that would jeopardize the franchise’s ability to contend. Beno, Hill, are clear examples of this. SA used those players to load up on picks and draft again, even identifying potential franchise players (Leonard).

Once you get your franchise pillars via the draft, the job becomes easier because you are then trading and drafting and signing FA for a specific need.

SA tanked when Robinson was injured and it got them Duncan (they didn’t have the worst record that year BTW...hello Boston) but the fortunes of the whole franchise changed with one tank job done well.
 
#20
That is just not true. There are multiple solutions that while not prohibitive of tanking would make it less desirable and therefore less likely. For example giving the bottom 5 teams equal odds and drawing all 5 slots, or only taking the top 7 teams by record into the play offs and creating wild card slots for the 8th seed. These are just two quick suggestions out of dozens I have heard over the years.
So let’s take your example of the bottom 5 teams having equal odds this year. Currently as this thread shows, 7 teams are all within a game and you more or less have 5 top tier players. You don’t think those teams won’t still be tanking like hell to get to the top 5 and not be 6 or 7? Quite frankly in your scenario tanking would be more important!

Like him or not Cuban is an engineer trained to find the root cause of a problem because if you don’t address the root cause the problem never goes away. The root cause of tanking is not the draft structure or the three to four changes they made to it would have worked already. This upcoming change isn’t gong to work either. It will merely shift around the line where the incentive to tank resides.
 
#21
As with virtually all problems there are more than one solution out there. It is a quesiotn of how the problem is understood and a willingness o try one or more of the solutions.
As with all systematic problems the first step is to identify the root cause. Their may or may not be more than one solution but if the solution doesn’t address the root cause it will fail.

The draft structure is not the root cause of the tanking phenomenon. The root cause is the impact in basketball of a single player, the ability to tie said player to your franchise for a lengthy period of time due to rookie contracts and restricted free agency, and now with the Rookie scale to do so cheaply.

Root cause analysis is a fundamental precept of any systematic failure analysis.
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#22
So let’s take your example of the bottom 5 teams having equal odds this year. Currently as this thread shows, 7 teams are all within a game and you more or less have 5 top tier players. You don’t think those teams won’t still be tanking like hell to get to the top 5 and not be 6 or 7? Quite frankly in your scenario tanking would be more important!

Like him or not Cuban is an engineer trained to find the root cause of a problem because if you don’t address the root cause the problem never goes away. The root cause of tanking is not the draft structure or the three to four changes they made to it would have worked already. This upcoming change isn’t gong to work either. It will merely shift around the line where the incentive to tank resides.
It seems fairly obvious that you have chosen a position and are constructing a justification for your position: that the draft as is works fine and that intentionally losing games is an intelligent, logical response for any team that does not see it self as competitive. We do not even agree that there is a problem so of course we will never convince each other about preferred solutions. Last season the bottom 5 teams ranged from 20-29 wins. with 6 and 7 each winning 31. Philly the champions of tanking had the worst last 10 game record of 1-9 and still only came in at 4. My point is that even when teams are jockying for draft position they often fail to hit that sweet spot of a top 3. This is due in part to the fact I pointed to in a previous post that OTHER teams are trying to lose too. In general the theory of tanking works best when everyone else is trying to win, but if you get 7 or more teams all trying to lose then there is actual competition at being bad in order to out maneuver the other 6 or more teams who are each trying to lose games. I see this as a problem that is bad for fans and ultimately bad for the game.

This situation is not a simple single cause and effect difficulty (as few problems in the world are). Shifts in fan base, changes in media consumption, restrictions created by salary caps, the advent of super teams and the pressures of free agency just to name a few of the factors that have led to the relatively new problem of teams tanking part or all of a season. This seems to be one of those situations, like the allegory of the commons, where each team acting in own best interest ultimately may be in no ones if the fans will not go to games to see teams try to out lose eachother. A single cause does not exist and a single rule change is not likely to work either. But again if you are eager to see that riveting Memphis Pheonix game next week then there is no problem to solve and we have noting to talk about.

By way of information Mark Cuban is not a trained engineer. He holds a bachelors in business management from the cheapest school he could find. He is a business man and a wheeler dealer. I have no clue what problem he sees or the root cause he found. He does seem to be a guy who has decided that overpaying vets has not worked.
 
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#23
It seems fairly obvious that you have chosen a position and are constructing a justification for your position: that the draft as is works fine and that intentionally losing games is an intelligent, logical response for any team that does not see it self as competitive. We do not even agree that there is a problem so of course we will never convince each other about preferred solutions. Last season the bottom 5 teams ranged from 20-29 wins. with 6 and 7 each winning 31. Philly the champions of tanking had the worst last 10 game record of 1-9 and still only came in at 4. My point is that even when teams are jockying for draft position they often fail to hit that sweet spot of a top 3. This is due in part to the fact I pointed to in a previous post that OTHER teams are trying to lose too. In general the theory of tanking works best when everyone else is trying to win, but if you get 7 or more teams all trying to lose then there is actual competition at being bad in order to out maneuver the other 6 or more teams who are each trying to lose games. I see this as a problem that is bad for fans and ultimately bad for the game.

This situation is not a simple single cause and effect difficulty (as few problems in the world are). Shifts in fan base, changes in media consumption, restrictions created by salary caps, the advent of super teams and the pressures of free agency just to name a few of the factors that have led to the relatively new problem of teams tanking part or all of a season. This seems to be one of those situations, like the allegory of the commons, where each team acting in own best interest ultimately may be in no ones if the fans will not go to games to see teams try to out lose eachother. A single cause does not exist and a single rule change is not likely to work either. But again if you are eager to see that riveting Memphis Pheonix game next week then there is no problem to solve and we have noting to talk about.

By way of information Mark Cuban is not a trained engineer. He holds a bachelors in business management from the cheapest school he could find. He is a business man and a wheeler dealer. I have no clue what problem he sees or the root cause he found. He does seem to be a guy who has decided that overpaying vets has not worked.
I think you are totally missing the point of root cause analysis.
 

HndsmCelt

Hall of Famer
#24
I think you are totally missing the point of root cause analysis.
Just because I reject root cause analysis for this specific situation does not mean I don't understand it. One of the necessary presumptions/conditions for RCA is that there IS a single factor that once removed alleviates the unwanted condition. I do not hold that this is one of those situations. I argue that multiple factors lead to the reletivly new phenomon of teams shamelessly tanking all or part of a season. This has not been a pernnial situation since 1947 when the draft was introduced. The Lotto was introudced in 1985 as fix to the then emerging problem of teams (Houston) intentionally losing games.
 
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#25
Just because I reject root cause analysis for this specific situation does not mean I don't understand it. One of the necessary presumptions/conditions for RCA is that there IS a single factor that once removed alleviates the unwanted condition. I do not hold that this is one of those situations. I argue that multiple factors lead to the reletivly new phenomon of teams shamelessly tanking all or part of a season. This has not been a pernnial situation since 1947.
Root cause analysis rarely is a single factor but more often the unexpected or unwanted interaction of many factors. And this is not a new phenomenon, the NBA has been trying different means to randomize the draft selection order since 1966.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#26
There is no doubt that tht team was build via trade but if we trace back the assets, they originate from the draft. We got Richmond because Don Nelson had one of his brain fades and traded an all-star for Owen (pick 3). Mitch eventually was traded for Webber.

We drafted Williamson and traded him for Christie. We drafted Peja, Hedo, Williams who later were used to bring in the likes of Bibby, Miller, Artest.

While trading is super important for a small market team, the way you get the assets to trade really originate from the draft. Sacramento has never been a big free agency attraction except in the days where we were genuine contenders where veterans signed on for cheap as they are now doing with Houston, Warriors et al.

Making the draft count, means not only do you aquire talent but also potential trade currency. If you keep wasting your picks, then you have no curency and you are in constant cycle in the gutter.

I still believe that the cheapest way to build for a small amrket team especially is via a draft. Once you get lucky with a couple of franchise players and young basketball operations side of franchise is in a good position, it makes your life easier. It is cheaper to draft a franchise player than it is to draft one not only in terms of money but also trade assets.

SA have been the absolute masters of this. They lucked into Duncan which obviously made life easier for them but they still used late 1st round pick to draft Parker and pick 59 to draft Manu. That made thier life easier for a while because they were able to use draft picks to draft players who fit their system, play those players while they are on their rookie deals and then trade them to maximize on their value because re-signing them would mean spending money that would jeopardize the franchise’s ability to contend. Beno, Hill, are clear examples of this. SA used those players to load up on picks and draft again, even identifying potential franchise players (Leonard).

Once you get your franchise pillars via the draft, the job becomes easier because you are then trading and drafting and signing FA for a specific need.

SA tanked when Robinson was injured and it got them Duncan (they didn’t have the worst record that year BTW...hello Boston) but the fortunes of the whole franchise changed with one tank job done well.
You have, indirectly, made my point for me. While everyone is insisting we absolutely must have a top draft pick, the names you posted show that much can be accomplished with lower picks. Here's where the players you named were drafted:

Corliss Williamson - 13
Peja Stojakovic - 14
Hedo Turkoglu - 16
Jason Williams - 7

Thus, with the exception of Jason (who most likely would have been available lower because of his reputation and problems), those players were not in the top 5 or even the top 10. It was the ability to evaluate their talent and move them for players who better fit our needs (in the cases of Corliss and Jason) that enabled us to reach the heights.

We didn't get our franchise pillars via the draft. We got Vlade from free agency and Webber via trade.

Thanks for playing. ;)

P.S. Almost all trades can trace back to drafts, unless the player was originally hired as a walk-on.
 
#27
You have, indirectly, made my point for me. While everyone is insisting we absolutely must have a top draft pick, the names you posted show that much can be accomplished with lower picks. Here's where the players you named were drafted:

Corliss Williamson - 13
Peja Stojakovic - 14
Hedo Turkoglu - 16
Jason Williams - 7

Thus, with the exception of Jason (who most likely would have been available lower because of his reputation and problems), those players were not in the top 5 or even the top 10. It was the ability to evaluate their talent and move them for players who better fit our needs (in the cases of Corliss and Jason) that enabled us to reach the heights.

We didn't get our franchise pillars via the draft. We got Vlade from free agency and Webber via trade.

Thanks for playing. ;)

P.S. Almost all trades can trace back to drafts, unless the player was originally hired as a walk-on.
Except Petrie was a among the leaders in drafting European players. That’s no longer the case. In many cases the examples of drafting all-stars late can be attributed to a paradigm shift. The 96 draft was very strong but it was also in the beginning of two massive paradigm shifts: players entering from high school and players coming from overseas.

Do you really think a Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojakovic, and Steve Nash would be drafted 13th, 14th, and 15th in today’s draft? No way in heck. They only fell that far because most NBA GM’s were stuck in the existing paradigm of drafting US national seniors. Even two years later Nowitzki fell to 9 because GM’s still hadn’t adapted and changed their paradigms.

Now freshman are drafted first and Porzingas is drafted 3rd instead of 9th. All your point shows is Petrie was an early adopter of one of the paradigm shifts in today’s NBA. Those kinds of paradigm shifts are generational.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#28
Except Petrie was a among the leaders in drafting European players. That’s no longer the case. In many cases the examples of drafting all-stars late can be attributed to a paradigm shift. The 96 draft was very strong but it was also in the beginning of two massive paradigm shifts: players entering from high school and players coming from overseas.

Do you really think a Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojakovic, and Steve Nash would be drafted 13th, 14th, and 15th in today’s draft? No way in heck. They only fell that far because most NBA GM’s were stuck in the existing paradigm of drafting US national seniors. Even two years later Nowitzki fell to 9 because GM’s still hadn’t adapted and changed their paradigms.

Now freshman are drafted first and Porzingas is drafted 3rd instead of 9th. All your point shows is Petrie was an early adopter of one of the paradigm shifts in today’s NBA. Those kinds of paradigm shifts are generational.
Except...

Yeah, but...

Sorry, but trying to discuss this with you is tiresome. You keep changing the goal posts whenever someone brings up something that doesn't agree with YOUR assessment. I'm not in to arguing for the mere sake of arguing. Life is too short.
 
#29
I’m sorry you feel that way.

We have hardly been moving the goal post. We posted statistical data of the frequency of any draft slot yielding an all star caliber player. The data clearly shows it drops off quickly. You then responded with a couple one off data points in response. We responded with the massive paradigm shifts that enabled those data points making a repeat of them even less likely than the already very low chances the statistical data would indicate.

I don’t find explaining the factors behind an outlying data point moving the goal post at all.
 
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#30
The facts around this subject are clear:
  • Your statistical chance of drafting an all star falls dramatically out of the top 5
  • Many of the outliers in an already bleak statistical picture can be explained by the one off paradigm shift from college to high school (Bryant, Garnett) or the global shift (Peja, Nowitski).
  • The NBA has been tinkering with this problem since the 1960’s when they instituted a coin flip for the first pick
  • The lottery was introduced in the 80’s to try to address the same problem we have today