Kings 2022 Play-off Chances.

[sactowndog]

Let’s chat about Kings play-off chances next year.

the Pacific has 5 teams:
Suns - could be NBA Champs
Lakers - Could have LeBron and AD
Clippers - Could have Kahwai and PG
Warriors - Could have Curry, Thompson, Green picks....
Kings.....

The Division matters because the Kings will have 16 games against these 4 teams. Other teams like Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans, Portland, San Antonio will have at most 15 and most likely 14 games. Minnesota and Portland will have 4 against OKC. San Antonio, New Orleans and Memphis will have 4 against Houston.

That puts the Kings at a 1 or 2 game disadvantage towards making the play-offs playing in a division with possibly the last 3 NBA Champs. As close as these races have been that disadvantage could well be decisive.

Does anyone really think the Kings are a player away?

 

[SLAB]

Barring a jump from De’Aaron turning those neat little 7 game superstar stretches into an 82 game superstar stretch or Hali ascending to true star level the Kings aren’t close.

 

[funkykingston]

How many people thought the Suns were 1 player away from going to the finals last off-season?

Things can change rapidly.

There's no guarantee that Kawhi stays in LA or stays healthy. Also no guarantee that time doesn't catch up with LeBron - either slowing down significantly or injuries.

The Warriors missed the playoffs this season with Curry at an MVP level and Klay's return should fix that but who knows?

McNair has a lot of work to do this off-season but with the right moves the playoffs aren't that difficult of a goal in a league where more teams make the postseason than don't. We often just have a warped perspective because the Kings have been so poorly run for so long.

 

[EIM86]

If we draft a Haliburton level gem this draft I think we have a 30% chance of making the play in game. That’s about it

 

[dude12]

If they add or keep defensive guys like T Davis, rookie wing who can play D, add another defensive Center to D Jones, Harkless plays like early career pick and roll defender guy and Hali takes a jump in production, Fox is better defensively, I think they can battle for the last spot.

 

[sactowndog]

How many people thought the Suns were 1 player away from going to the finals last off-season?

Things can change rapidly.

There's no guarantee that Kawhi stays in LA or stays healthy. Also no guarantee that time doesn't catch up with LeBron - either slowing down significantly or injuries.

The Warriors missed the playoffs this season with Curry at an MVP level and Klay's return should fix that but who knows?

McNair has a lot of work to do this off-season but with the right moves the playoffs aren't that difficult of a goal in a league where more teams make the postseason than don't. We often just have a warped perspective because the Kings have been so poorly run for so long.

perhaps but it would require

1) a star coming here and we have no cap space unlike PHX did for Paul

2) a similar jump from Bagley like occurred with Ayton.

do you see realistic odds of that happening??

 

[sactowndog]

If they add or keep defensive guys like T Davis, rookie wing who can play D, add another defensive Center to D Jones, Harkless plays like early career pick and roll defender guy and Hali takes a jump in production, Fox is better defensively, I think they can battle for the last spot.

play in or 8th seed?

 

[dude12]

play in or 8th seed?

I’d have to see what moves are made before committing to 8th seed but I feel with added defensive oriented players that Monte is bringing in, battling for play in should be a given

 

[midtowner]

If everybody on the roster is committed to playing team ball, and exerting max effort, I see no reason why this team can’t be competitive. But that hasn’t happened in years.

 

[sactowndog]

I’d have to see what moves are made before committing to 8th seed but I feel with added defensive oriented players that Monte is bringing in, battling for play in should be a given

yeah probably.... though I think that spot is where the schedule difference comes into play. Assuming Phoenix keeps Paul and the Clippers keep Leonard you have to assume these teams are above us....

Phoenix
Lakers
Clippers
Golden State
Denver
Utah
Dallas

that leaves us fighting for 3 spots with:
Portland - 4 OKC Games
Minnesota - 4 OKC Games

Memphis - 4 Houston Games
San Antonio - 4 Houston Games
New Orleans - 4 Houston Games

Just based on schedule 1 of the Southwest teams will be ahead of us which really leaves you fighting for 2 play-in spots.

if the schedule is such we only have 3 games against OKC and Houston that would put us at a 2 game disadvantage before the season even starts.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I want to be above .500 next season. We haven’t done that since 05/06. Tinker McNair, Fox and Haliburton to the rescue.

 

[sactowndog]

I want to be above .500 next season. We haven’t done that since 05/06. Tinker McNair, Fox and Haliburton to the rescue.

Im not sure it’s an option in our division. I think it may be more binary. Either you are top 5 good or you are a 35 win team. Say you are 3-13 in division which isn’t unreasonable next year.... that means you are 38-28 which is 57.5% for the rest of the league just to get to .500.

 

[kingsboi]

Lakers don't really put much fright into anybody in my opinion, Bron is close to retiring as far as I'm concerned and Davis has trouble staying on the court. The Suns, Clippers and Warriors all should be in the Playoffs though barring any major changes. So in another words, Kings aren't getting to the Playoffs anytime soon unless Fox turns into a top 15 player and Hali contributes as his Robin. Supporting cast all need to buy in and play team defense.

 

[Volblorx8634]

My thoughts basically echo those voiced thus far.

It's impossible for me to really wager a guess because there is so much we don't know about the roster next year. Any of Holmes, Bagley, Buddy, or Barnes might not be here next year. That's 4 of last year's starting 5. Regardless, this team is soft and lacks fundamentals, so that needs to be fixed for us to even have a chance or it'll take a ton of extra talent to overcome that.

 

[SacTownKid]

Man, good question, to me this all depends on what happens with Walton. If Walton puts up his typical .370 pre-deadline win percentage early and gets the chain, maybe the Kings could have a Hawks like run under Gentry, who knows, haha. It's also just as likely they go full on rebuild right then and there. I think this team could have a severe swing one way or the other depending on what they do in the draft, FA, and early next season. It's really that crazy.

 

[funkykingston]

perhaps but it would require

1) a star coming here and we have no cap space unlike PHX did for Paul

2) a similar jump from Bagley like occurred with Ayton.

do you see realistic odds of that happening??

To make the finals? Yeah it would take a lot.

But the question is whether the Kings can make the playoffs.

My point was that the Suns won 3 more games than the Kings the season before and a year later they are poised to win a championship.

It's not a huge leap to think the Kings can make enough changes to make the playoffs. Let's see what McNair does.

 

[gunks]

Did everyone forget about the Jazz?

I feel like the top 6 is going to be (in no particular order) Lakers, Clips, Suns, Jazz, GS, and Nuggets.

We oddly own the Nuggets, but that doesn’t mean we’ll beat their record,

Portland and the Dallas Lukas gotta be fighting it out for 7th at the least, but I can see either of those teams hopping up to 5th or 6th depending on some of the elites falling off.

So for 8th? We miiiiiiight have a chance. I think Memphis has to be our main competition, but the Pels could make a push. They have talent.

But as others have mentioned, a lot needs to break right for us. More elite games from Fox + a sophomore leap from Hali will go a long way. But who knows what our front court will look like next season… and of course we still got Luke as coach.

Fingers crossed Tinker has some tricks up his sleeve this summer, but I feel like he once again doesn’t have a lot to work with.

 

[kingsboi]

Did everyone forget about the Jazz?

I feel like the top 6 is going to be (in no particular order) Lakers, Clips, Suns, Jazz, GS, and Nuggets.

We oddly own the Nuggets, but that doesn’t mean we’ll beat their record,

Portland and the Dallas Lukas gotta be fighting it out for 7th at the least, but I can see either of those teams hopping up to 5th or 6th depending on some of the elites falling off.

So for 8th? We miiiiiiight have a chance. I think Memphis has to be our main competition, but the Pels could make a push. They have talent.

But as others have mentioned, a lot needs to break right for us. More elite games from Fox + a sophomore leap from Hali will go a long way. But who knows what our front court will look like next season… and of course we still got Luke as coach.

Fingers crossed Tinker has some tricks up his sleeve this summer, but I feel like he once again doesn’t have a lot to work with.

don't forget the Mavs too

 

[sactowndog]

Did everyone forget about the Jazz?

I feel like the top 6 is going to be (in no particular order) Lakers, Clips, Suns, Jazz, GS, and Nuggets.

We oddly own the Nuggets, but that doesn’t mean we’ll beat their record,

Portland and the Dallas Lukas gotta be fighting it out for 7th at the least, but I can see either of those teams hopping up to 5th or 6th depending on some of the elites falling off.

So for 8th? We miiiiiiight have a chance. I think Memphis has to be our main competition, but the Pels could make a push. They have talent.

But as others have mentioned, a lot needs to break right for us. More elite games from Fox + a sophomore leap from Hali will go a long way. But who knows what our front court will look like next season… and of course we still got Luke as coach.

Fingers crossed Tinker has some tricks up his sleeve this summer, but I feel like he once again doesn’t have a lot to work with.

Dallas also has a schedule advantage in that they share a Division with New Orleans, Memphis, San Antonio and Houston.

that puts Dallas easily in the top 6 with the worst of GS, Lakers, Clippers, Phoenix in 7th most likely.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Im not sure it’s an option in our division. I think it may be more binary. Either you are top 5 good or you are a 35 win team. Say you are 3-13 in division which isn’t unreasonable next year.... that means you are 38-28 which is 57.5% for the rest of the league just to get to .500.

It’s definitely going to be tough. At some point we have to make a jump if we have any future with Fox and Haliburton at the helm. We will probably have a better idea after the draft. Will we trade our pick, Buddy, Bags? Plus Holmes free agency. Lots of
Questions

 

[sactowndog]

To make the finals? Yeah it would take a lot.

But the question is whether the Kings can make the playoffs.

My point was that the Suns won 3 more games than the Kings the season before and a year later they are poised to win a championship.

It's not a huge leap to think the Kings can make enough changes to make the playoffs. Let's see what McNair does.

again I think it’s binary. Phoenix had the pieces to be a Championship contender. If they were merely a .500 team they likely would have been under .500.

Next year will likely be even worse as Golden State has Wiseman and 2 Lottery picks! We also played an even number of times with a 72 game schedule so every team in the west played conference teams the same amount. That won’t happen next year.

 

[Turgenev]

Our core squad and this coach have been 400ish the past two years. There will be internal improvement and a rookie, but it's doubtful that will be enough to make the playoffs in the west. So no, we are not a player away.

But: last year we played with no depth for the first half of the season and still managed pretty reasonable win streaks. We got an all rookie guy with the 12th pick. Monte turned CoJo, unhappy Belly, and two seconds into quality back court players and found backup/ rotation bigs for nothing. I didn't see any of those moves coming. So it might be worth tuning in.

 

[LenPa]

I guess it will be hard to make it to the playoffs but of course there is a chance. For me, it is not just one player (which could be enough) but also some luck (e.g. injuries) and about having a winning streak at the right moment. But it is so important for the fans and franchise to get to the playoffs to lose the ‘loser image’.

 

[funkykingston]

again I think it’s binary. Phoenix had the pieces to be a Championship contender. If they were merely a .500 team they likely would have been under .500.

Next year will likely be even worse as Golden State has Wiseman and 2 Lottery picks! We also played an even number of times with a 72 game schedule so every team in the west played conference teams the same amount. That won’t happen next year.

I'm not sure I follow. The Suns WERE under .500 a season ago. They were 34-39 on 2019-2020. And this year they went 51-21. That's 17 more wins in a season where they played one fewer game.

This year the Kings would have made the playoffs of they won 7 more games. That's not nearly as big a leap and certainly doable.

There are a lot of good teams in the West but that's always the case.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm not sure I follow. The Suns WERE under .500 a season ago. They were 34-39 on 2019-2020. And this year they went 51-21. That's 17 more wins in a season where they played one fewer game.

This year the Kings would have made the playoffs of they won 7 more games. That's not nearly as big a leap and certainly doable.

There are a lot of good teams in the West but that's always the case.

the point intended is if you are good enough to be .500 in the Pacific than you will likely be significantly better against the rest of the league. With 4 Championship capable teams in Division, the likely 3-13 hole in which you will likely find yourself makes you have to play significantly over .500 against the rest of the league. If you are truely a .500 team that isn’t likely.

 

[dude12]

As far as taking a jump, beyond the things listed above with in house development by Hali, Fox defensively, Woodard?, Metu?, D Jones?, Sac has to look at Atlanta’s model of having high quality depth and the ability for McMillan to have players with different skill sets to matchup. The ability to get some defensive stoppers onto the floor or to be able to create mismatches attacking the other teams lack of ability to play D.

Now, Walton still is the coach and that is a concern but if I’m trying to be optimistic, Walton did have the Harkless and Barnes frontcourt and the ability to come in with Delon and TD for added defensive ability. Like Harkless or not, he provided some improvement defensively.

Phx has 2 defensive guys in the lineup in Bridges and Crowder. CP still plays good D and Ayton is solid. Bookers shortcomings on D are covered mostly.

The problem with Fox AND Hield AND Halliburton is they are all mostly avg at best defenders. That means a Bagley can NOT be on the floor at the same time. I feel certain that we had those 3 backcourt guys on the floor at the same time often…….maybe even with Bagley. It’s why our D was putrid.

It’s why I believe optimistically that if we add a defensive wing or 2 and have another Center who can play pick and roll D to go along with D Jones we have a chance to bump up. It’s why I have hope with McNair based on who he acquired at the deadline. I think he gets it as far as roster makeup and what we need.

 

[sactowndog]

2022 NBA Title odds in the west
Lakers +475 Pacific
Clippers +800 Pacific
Warriors +1200 Pacific
Suns +1400 Pacific
Jazz +1500 Northwest
Nuggets +2000 Northwest
Mavericks +2800 Southwest

Trail Blazers +5000 Northwest
Pelicans +8000 Southwest
Grizzlies +10,000 Southwest

TWolves +25000 Northwest
Spurs +25000 Southwest
Kings +25000 Pacific

Rockets +50000 Southwest
Thunder +50000 Northwest

making short term moves against these odds

 

[sactowndog]

As far as taking a jump, beyond the things listed above with in house development by Hali, Fox defensively, Woodard?, Metu?, D Jones?, Sac has to look at Atlanta’s model of having high quality depth and the ability for McMillan to have players with different skill sets to matchup. The ability to get some defensive stoppers onto the floor or to be able to create mismatches attacking the other teams lack of ability to play D.

Now, Walton still is the coach and that is a concern but if I’m trying to be optimistic, Walton did have the Harkless and Barnes frontcourt and the ability to come in with Delon and TD for added defensive ability. Like Harkless or not, he provided some improvement defensively.

Phx has 2 defensive guys in the lineup in Bridges and Crowder. CP still plays good D and Ayton is solid. Bookers shortcomings on D are covered mostly.

The problem with Fox AND Hield AND Halliburton is they are all mostly avg at best defenders. That means a Bagley can NOT be on the floor at the same time. I feel certain that we had those 3 backcourt guys on the floor at the same time often…….maybe even with Bagley. It’s why our D was putrid.

It’s why I believe optimistically that if we add a defensive wing or 2 and have another Center who can play pick and roll D to go along with D Jones we have a chance to bump up. It’s why I have hope with McNair based on who he acquired at the deadline. I think he gets it as far as roster makeup and what we need.

Barnes is also historically graded out as an average defender. Yes only 2 of Fox, Haliburton and Hield can be on the floor at one time.

 

[King Baller]

Using the Suns comparison the difference has to primarily come on the defensive end of the court. CP3 and Jae Crowder and both good defenders who were added to the Suns.

Add those two to the Kings and they make the Playoffs assuming good fortune and Coaching.

 

[Gguod]

I've seen comparisons to Suns. My question is: wehere are we getting that All Nba level talent like they did with Crhis Paul? I've said the exact same thing year after year. We absolutely need that level of a player added to this core. Our supporting cast is very good. We need that top level player that elevates us from bad to good. Still my question is: where the F*** are we getting that guy while capped out and drafting at bad position?