Isaiah Thomas' potential for 2012-2013 and later in his career.

chaps

chaps

G-League
#1
#1
Hi everybody! Long time Kingsfan.com member on the East Coast who unfortunately didnt get to watch the team much this year because of a new job.

I would like to get your opinion on Isaiah Thomas. I think it's safe to say Petrie got a steal at 60th overall in the 2011 draft. For those that watch every Kings game on TV or at Arco, what do you think Isaiah can contribute statswise this year when he starts the year with starter minutes? His "per 36 minutes" averages for his rookie year were an impressive 16 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists along with a steal and a three per game.

Can he increase that? Will he increase that?
 
Mass

Mass

Starter
#2
#2
I'd say that IT should not increase his numbers. Other players have to do it. DMC and Tyreke for example. IT has to be the 4th guy out there, the only stat I really want to see improved is his assists per game. It's hard to predict his stats, because right now we don't even know who we draft and if he will be a starter. There's a chance Tyreke goes back to the PG position, so we don't know how many minutes IT will play next year.
Remember then that the second year for a player is usually harder than the rookie season. Teams know you, they know how to react on D, and it's a different story out there. Anyways, I'm sure IT is a tough guy and he'll be ready.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#3
#3
So here are last year's stats and what I think is reasonable for IT to accomplish next year:

His FG& while starting: 47.7%. He should be able to get to 50%.

His 3 pt FG% while starting: 40.6%. I'd like to see that at 45% or above.

His assist/game while starting: 5.35. He should get north of 6/game.

His assist/to ratio: 2.7. Should get above 3. His incredible streak of assit/to at the end of last year supports this notion.

Steals per game: 1.0. Learning the angles, should get north of 1.2/game.

He was 4th in the league in pick and roll efficiency. How about aiming for #1?

After all, he is a rookie and has barely touched the surface. Once he applies his IQ to the film and gets more experienced he should get considerably better. He says he's working on his off-hand dribbling to become more Nash-like. That's what I want to hear - a guy who studies the best to become the best. One thing for sure, he's not going to be limited because he doesn't have a work ethic or intelligence.
 
vikinginferno

vikinginferno

Starter
#5
#5
IT probably won't be an 18-20 ppg guy, but seeing as he is the clear best PG on this team at the moment, he should be able to get his assists up to 6 per game (still not that high because even though he is PG, ball still goes mostly through DMC and to an extent Tyreke). I would say his averages will be around 15 ppg and 6 apg while shooting a similar FG% to last season while starting (47-48) and 3 point % (40-41). There's no reason his numbers cannot improve in some ways considering he was our most productive player at some points last season and still has room to grow.
 
upinsmoke

upinsmoke

All-Star
#7
#7
I'm not to caught up with stats with IT what he does is add fluidity to our offense and he can come off the bench without a problem if in fact Evans is starting at the 1.
 
vikinginferno

vikinginferno

Starter
#8
#8
I really hope Smart doesn't make the bad decision to move IT back to the bench because he is unable to tell Thornton that he is a better fit as 6th man. IT is what this team needs from a starting guard next to Tyreke- stability, fluidity, leadership, passing, ballhandling, and shooting. IT was much better starting than he was off the bench as he works very well with guys like DMC who take the focus of the defense off of him.
 
upinsmoke

upinsmoke

All-Star
#9
#9
vikinginferno said:
I really hope Smart doesn't make the bad decision to move IT back to the bench because he is unable to tell Thornton that he is a better fit as 6th man. IT is what this team needs from a starting guard next to Tyreke- stability, fluidity, leadership, passing, ballhandling, and shooting. IT was much better starting than he was off the bench as he works very well with guys like DMC who take the focus of the defense off of him.
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  1. IT
  2. Evans
  3. T-Will
  4. JT
  5. CUZ

Possible starting lineup if and most likely the #### ### magoofs won't pony up for Batum.
 
rainmaker

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
#10
#10
His ceiling is probably a BJax type, where he can be one of the better, if not challenge for the best 6th man in a given year, on a consistent playoff club.

Thing with IT is I think he's best when he's aggressive, but he can't be with Reke/Cuz out there without hurting them, and no I do not think he's good enough to be the 3rd guy on a playoff club. He's a combo guard who's best when he's aggressive, looking for his or attacking and trying to create and should be able to excel at that role coming off the bench, as again I don't see him doing that as a full time starter, unless it's on a 20 something win team which is at the bottom of the barrel league wide, and even then we saw how it effected both MT and Reke.

For him to play as a full time starter with Reke/Cuz, he has to step back to help them both be more effective and I don't think he plays particularly well when he does that, can almost become invisible and is a defensive liability in top of it. But as an extremely aggressive 6-7th man who goes full tilt? Could excel there, and later on probably for a playoff club.
 
vikinginferno

vikinginferno

Starter
#11
#11
upinsmoke said:
  1. IT
  2. Evans
  3. T-Will
  4. JT
  5. CUZ

Possible starting lineup if and most likely the #### ### magoofs won't pony up for Batum.
Click to expand...
Who would we have drafted? Drummond and play him off the bench?

I don't really like starting TWill at the 3, he is pretty small for the position. I would love to see him back, but we really need to figure out the logjam at the 2.
 
M

mac

All-Star
#12
#12
Kingster said:
So here are last year's stats and what I think is reasonable for IT to accomplish next year:

His FG& while starting: 47.7%. He should be able to get to 50%.

His 3 pt FG% while starting: 40.6%. I'd like to see that at 45% or above.

His assist/game while starting: 5.35. He should get north of 6/game.

His assist/to ratio: 2.7. Should get above 3. His incredible streak of assit/to at the end of last year supports this notion.

Steals per game: 1.0. Learning the angles, should get north of 1.2/game.

He was 4th in the league in pick and roll efficiency. How about aiming for #1?

After all, he is a rookie and has barely touched the surface. Once he applies his IQ to the film and gets more experienced he should get considerably better. He says he's working on his off-hand dribbling to become more Nash-like. That's what I want to hear - a guy who studies the best to become the best. One thing for sure, he's not going to be limited because he doesn't have a work ethic or intelligence.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, Tyreke Evans will never be able to shoot but Isaiah Thomas will hit 3s at a % that Ray Allen, the all time leader in 3pt FGM only did once in his career.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#14
#14
vikinginferno said:
Who would we have drafted? Drummond and play him off the bench?

I don't really like starting TWill at the 3, he is pretty small for the position. I would love to see him back, but we really need to figure out the logjam at the 2.
Click to expand...

Small, but perhaps effective with his strength and athelticism.
 
vikinginferno

vikinginferno

Starter
#15
#15
Bricklayer said:
Small, but perhaps effective with his strength and athelticism.
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Eh, he is a pretty prototypical 2 guard to me. Could he play the 3? Yeah, he could, but it is not playing him where he would be best used. I am just sick of getting a bunch of 2s and putting them against the bigger 3s in the NBA. It is time we get a full sized starting SF and T-Will can come off the bench at the 1-3.
 
M

mr. moustache

Bench
#16
#16
mac said:
Ah yes, Tyreke Evans will never be able to shoot but Isaiah Thomas will hit 3s at a % that Ray Allen, the all time leader in 3pt FGM only did once in his career.
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I thought that was funny too. 45% from 3 and 50%+ in general. Those are ridiculous expectations from a second year player. 3 people in the entire league accomplished that.
 
M

mac

All-Star
#17
#17
mr. moustache said:
I thought that was funny too. 45% from 3 and 50%+ in general. Those are ridiculous expectations from a second year player. 3 people in the entire league accomplished that.
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Yea well, he's already one of the best defensive PGs in the league, might as well throw the best shooter title to him too. Won't be long before the IT will average 20 10 12 talk starts from these guys.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#18
#18
rainmaker said:
His ceiling is probably a BJax type, where he can be one of the better, if not challenge for the best 6th man in a given year, on a consistent playoff club.

Thing with IT is I think he's best when he's aggressive, but he can't be with Reke/Cuz out there without hurting them, and no I do not think he's good enough to be the 3rd guy on a playoff club. He's a combo guard who's best when he's aggressive, looking for his or attacking and trying to create and should be able to excel at that role coming off the bench, as again I don't see him doing that as a full time starter, unless it's on a 20 something win team which is at the bottom of the barrel league wide, and even then we saw how it effected both MT and Reke.

For him to play as a full time starter with Reke/Cuz, he has to step back to help them both be more effective and I don't think he plays particularly well when he does that, can almost become invisible and is a defensive liability in top of it. But as an extremely aggressive 6-7th man who goes full tilt? Could excel there, and later on probably for a playoff club.
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Rainmaker, Tyreke said that he liked playing with IT (i.e he wasn't hurting him). Do you think Tyreke is wrong? And I fail to see how IT hurts Cousins in any way. Just the opposite. He can get the ball to him in the right spots, he can run an excellent pick and roll with Cousins, he can open the floor to help Cousins get space under the basket. You and I are seeing an ENTIRELY different game on the court if you think IT hurts Cousins. Cousins loves playing with this guy. I don't know where you get this stuff from.
 
Uncia03

Uncia03

Starter
#20
#20
Kingster said:
Rainmaker, Tyreke said that he liked playing with IT (i.e he wasn't hurting him). Do you think Tyreke is wrong? And I fail to see how IT hurts Cousins in any way. Just the opposite. He can get the ball to him in the right spots, he can run an excellent pick and roll with Cousins, he can open the floor to help Cousins get space under the basket. You and I are seeing an ENTIRELY different game on the court if you think IT hurts Cousins. Cousins loves playing with this guy. I don't know where you get this stuff from.
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I agree with Rainmaker's assessment.

He's not saying that IT hurts Cousin's game.
And whether or not Tyreke said he liked playing with IT is besides the point.

The issue is that the team's offense really only has room for a dominant big man and a 1 ball-dominant guard on the floor at any one time. Having more than 1 ball-dominant guard limits the aggressiveness/effectiveness of both guards.

When IT is most effective is when he is being aggressive with the ball, and when he's dominating the ball to maximize his effectiveness, it minimizes Tyreke's offensive impact on the floor.
Interestingly enough, when Tyreke is dominating the ball he still does a good job finding IT for open shots, but you're still not maximizing IT if you're playing him primarily as a spot-up shooter.

I think we can all agree that Cousins needs to be on the floor as much as possible, being aggressive offensively (both in scoring and passing) as well as being a physical rebounder.

So to best maximize IT's game, he should be coming off the bench, so that when he does get into the game, he can be as aggressive as he needs to be, which should allow him to have a bigger impact on the floor.

Tyreke can be the aggressive ball-dominant guard to start the game, and then when he gets a bit tired/goes to the bench, IT can pick up where he left off.
 
gunks

gunks

Hall of Famer
#21
#21
Also, we'rent we around .500 with the Reke/Thornton/bleh/JT/Cousins lineup? Before Smart pointlessly went away from it to showcase IT?


IT is a sparkplug, and should be used as such, off the bench. Reke was actually making some PGy strides when Smart was working with him, hope to see that continue next season.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#22
#22
Uncia03 said:
I agree with Rainmaker's assessment.

He's not saying that IT hurts Cousin's game.
And whether or not Tyreke said he liked playing with IT is besides the point.

The issue is that the team's offense really only has room for a dominant big man and a 1 ball-dominant guard on the floor at any one time. Having more than 1 ball-dominant guard limits the aggressiveness/effectiveness of both guards.

When IT is most effective is when he is being aggressive with the ball, and when he's dominating the ball to maximize his effectiveness, it minimizes Tyreke's offensive impact on the floor.
Interestingly enough, when Tyreke is dominating the ball he still does a good job finding IT for open shots, but you're still not maximizing IT if you're playing him primarily as a spot-up shooter.

I think we can all agree that Cousins needs to be on the floor as much as possible, being aggressive offensively (both in scoring and passing) as well as being a physical rebounder.

So to best maximize IT's game, he should be coming off the bench, so that when he does get into the game, he can be as aggressive as he needs to be, which should allow him to have a bigger impact on the floor.

Tyreke can be the aggressive ball-dominant guard to start the game, and then when he gets a bit tired/goes to the bench, IT can pick up where he left off.
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He's not ball dominant. That's crap. This ball dominant stuff is preposterous. It makes it sound as if Carmell Anthony was our point guard. Or maybe Wade. Or Iverson. Not even close to the semblance of reality. He's BY FAR the best passer on the Kings; not even close. So if you want to take your best passing guard on the Kings and not have him play with Cousins, then be my guest. Then see how you do in the pick and roll and how you do in feeding the big man. Then tell me that having a great passing guard doesn't help the big man. You think Tyreke and Cousins like IT because he is "ball dominant"? Or do you think that maybe they like him because he gets the ball to them where they can use it? And in the case of Tyreke, he can bring up the ball under pressure so Tyreke doesn't have to do it?
 
T

Tyndel

Bench
#23
#23
Kingster said:
He's not ball dominant. That's crap. This ball dominant stuff is preposterous. It makes it sound as if Carmell Anthony was our point guard. Or maybe Wade. Or Iverson. Not even close to the semblance of reality. He's BY FAR the best passer on the Kings; not even close. So if you want to take your best passing guard on the Kings and not have him play with Cousins, then be my guest. Then see how you do in the pick and roll and how you do in feeding the big man. Then tell me that having a great passing guard doesn't help the big man. You think Tyreke and Cousins like IT because he is "ball dominant"? Or do you think that maybe they like him because he gets the ball to them where they can use it? And in the case of Tyreke, he can bring up the ball under pressure so Tyreke doesn't have to do it?
Click to expand...
IT is fairly ball dominate meaning he needs to ball in his hands to make stuff happen. Reke is even more ball dominate and tends to be very quiet if the ball doesn't go through him. MT is much less ball dominate while finishing more then either because he can shoot so well from the outside and doesn't have to worry about point guard responsibilities. This is why I said when IT was first starting that IT and Reke were the two that couldn't play together the most. MT can finish the assists of either but they don't assist each other particularly well(that's not to said MT doesn't take more shots just that he doesn't need the ball to start in his hands to do something with it).
 
Uncia03

Uncia03

Starter
#24
#24
Kingster said:
He's not ball dominant. That's crap. This ball dominant stuff is preposterous. It makes it sound as if Carmell Anthony was our point guard. Or maybe Wade. Or Iverson. Not even close to the semblance of reality. He's BY FAR the best passer on the Kings; not even close. So if you want to take your best passing guard on the Kings and not have him play with Cousins, then be my guest. Then see how you do in the pick and roll and how you do in feeding the big man. Then tell me that having a great passing guard doesn't help the big man. You think Tyreke and Cousins like IT because he is "ball dominant"? Or do you think that maybe they like him because he gets the ball to them where they can use it? And in the case of Tyreke, he can bring up the ball under pressure so Tyreke doesn't have to do it?
Click to expand...
I didn't say that IT isn't a good passer, but the fact is that you have to have the ball in your hands in order to pass the ball. And if you're in the half-court looking to run the pick-and-roll or looking to feed Cousins, then it must mean that the ball is in your hands.

And if it's in IT's hands, then it's not in Tyreke's hands, and if Tyreke doesn't have the ball his effectiveness plummets.
Sure he improved quite a bit with his off-ball movement last year. But just like Wade in the finals...it's great to see him make those random cuts to get the ball for scoring opportunities, but Wade is best served having the ball at the top of the key with a live dribble and a screener. And he isn't a spot-up shooter.

And it's not as if IT is just passing the ball every-which-way when he does it. After the all-star break he averaged 10 shots/game while Evans averaged 13 shots/game.

When Tyreke is on the floor he should be the guard who handles the ball the majority of the time. When IT is on the floor he should be the guard who handles the ball the majority of the time.

I don't think that Tyreke would have any problems playing with IT if IT brought up the ball into the half-court and then either dumped it down to Cousins or gave it to Tyreke and then went into spot-up-shooting position.

I do think that Tyreke would have a problem with being involved in multiple offensive half-court sets where he doesn't touch the ball because IT is taking all of the ball-handling duties.

The question is: Is it worth making IT a starter if all he's doing is bringing up the floor and then dumping the ball to Cousins/Tyreke then getting into position to shoot the ball if it comes to him? I don't think that's the best way to utilize IT as I'd prefer him to be the primary ball handler when he comes into the game, but not at the expense of Tyreke.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#25
#25
2011 - 2012 3 pt % stats..

Brandon Rush - .452
Jordan Farmar - .440
Willie Green - .442

Yeah, I think it's possible that IT can get to 45%. He doesn't have to force it because they give him room on the drive, he has a big man that can kick him open shots. He's got good form and touch on his shot. He can be more comfortable on the floor in his second year on when and where he can get the 3 pt shot. It's an ambitious goal to be as good as Jordan Farmar in 3 pt percentage, but it seems possible.

I also think his assist totals could easily go up over 7 if given the ball more and as this team has more of a semblance of an offense and other players around him continue to get better at finishing.


http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points
 
Tetsujin

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#26
#26
Kingster said:
2011 - 2012 3 pt % stats..

Brandon Rush - .452
Jordan Farmar - .440
Willie Green - .442

Yeah, I think it's possible that IT can get to 45%. He doesn't have to force it because they give him room on the drive, he has a big man that can kick him open shots. He's got good form and touch on his shot. He can be more comfortable on the floor in his second year on when and where he can get the 3 pt shot. It's an ambitious goal to be as good as Jordan Farmar in 3 pt percentage, but it seems possible.

I also think his assist totals could easily go up over 7 if given the ball more and as this team has more of a semblance of an offense and other players around him continue to get better at finishing.


http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points
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Is this before or after Stern preemptively gives him the next 4 league MVP awards?
 
DesertFox

DesertFox

Starter
#27
#27
25+ min per game in a BJAX role, off the bench but closes games next to Reke. 12 and 5 off the bench while keeping his % numbers up.
IT's size is overstated when it comes to his D, his only problem has been getting shot over (but only elite guys do that effectively).

Kingster said:
So here are last year's stats and what I think is reasonable for IT to accomplish next year:

His FG& while starting: 47.7%. He should be able to get to 50%.

His 3 pt FG% while starting: 40.6%. I'd like to see that at 45% or above.

His assist/game while starting: 5.35. He should get north of 6/game.

His assist/to ratio: 2.7. Should get above 3. His incredible streak of assit/to at the end of last year supports this notion.

Steals per game: 1.0. Learning the angles, should get north of 1.2/game.

He was 4th in the league in pick and roll efficiency. How about aiming for #1?

After all, he is a rookie and has barely touched the surface. Once he applies his IQ to the film and gets more experienced he should get considerably better. He says he's working on his off-hand dribbling to become more Nash-like. That's what I want to hear - a guy who studies the best to become the best. One thing for sure, he's not going to be limited because he doesn't have a work ethic or intelligence.
Click to expand...
If he does all that he'd be an all-star. I'm looking for him just to replicate what he did last year, maybe improve a little on his 3's and assists.
 
Uncia03

Uncia03

Starter
#29
#29
vikinginferno said:
It's funny some of the irrational hate IT gets (looks to be mostly because some think he's stealing the ball from Reke!!111)
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That's odd, because I don't see anyone hating on IT.

If you asked any fan of any team in the league whether they would be happy if their 60th pick in the draft ended up becoming the 1st guard off the bench, I think you'd find the response overwhelming.

We picked up both Whiteside and Honeycutt in the 2nd round the last 2 years, and we don't even know if they are going to get into the game other than garbage time.

IT played great basketball last season, but that does not mean that we need to go over-board.
Tyreke needs the ball in his hands to be effective and Tyreke has the far greater chance of dominating against other guards than IT.

We need to figure out how best to fit IT into the team scheme around Tyreke and Cousins as the building blocks. I don't know how that concept can be equated to 'irrational hate'.
 
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