I think we are the best NBA team at missing draft picks and college talent

D

dvirc218

G-League
#1
#1
I apologize for the disrespectful and ironic title.
But let's take a quick look at our top-10 draft picks from the last time we made the playoffs, 2006.

Assumption 1: As a small market our ONLY way of creating a playoff team is through the draft.
Assumption 2: Drafting a "good player" who can improve our team isn't enough. I'm specifically talking about drafting a game changer. Not only a home run - a Grand Slam.

2007,Draft pick number 10: Spencer Hawes. Is he a game changer? no
2008, not top 10 pick
2009,Draft pick number 4: Tyreke Evans. Is he a game changer? We thought he was after his rookie year, but in the end Evans is not a game changer.
2010,Draft pick number 5: Demarcus Cousins. Is he a game changer? Absolutely.
2011,Draft pick number 10: Jimmer Fredette. Is he a game changer? LOL
2012,Draft pick number 5: Thomas Robison . Is he a game changer? Bust
2013,Draft pick number 7: Ben McLemore. Is he a game changer? no
2014,Draft pick number 8: Nik Stauskas .Is he a game changer? nooooo
2015,Draft pick number 6: Willie Cauley-Stein. Is he a game changer? no
2016, not top 10 pick
2017,Draft pick number 5: DeAaron Fox. Is he a game changer? I love the kid, but after one season, we just don't know yet and this question is to be determined...

How are we so awful at this? If I start listing players we missed - it's ben and jerries for the rest of the day. (vegan b&j obviously so no animal has to suffer).
 
F

Folsomkingsfan

Starter
#3
#3
The only picks we've made that I disagreed with were jimmer and stauskas. Jimmer seemed like a cheap ploy by the team to sell tickets and stauskas was redundant because of mclemore. Thomas Robinson was considered the safest pick after Anthony Davis, Ben mclemore was mentioned as a possible #1 overall pick. Also that draft sucks anyway. WCS was touted as a game changing defender that even Larry Bird said made him a likely $100 million dollar player in the future. Not hard to see why we would want him next to cousins who had defensive issues. Jury is still out on Fox. It's not our drafting record that irritates me so much as our refusal to fully embrace a tanking season. I understand our front offices desire to give us a winning product and cultivate a winning environment, but honestly we should've spent Cousins early years tanking and not gunning for the 8th seed. That set us back years.
 
D

dvirc218

G-League
#4
#4
Folsomkingsfan said:
The only picks we've made that I disagreed with were jimmer and stauskas. Jimmer seemed like a cheap ploy by the team to sell tickets and stauskas was redundant because of mclemore. Thomas Robinson was considered the safest pick after Anthony Davis, Ben mclemore was mentioned as a possible #1 overall pick. Also that draft sucks anyway. WCS was touted as a game changing defender that even Larry Bird said made him a likely $100 million dollar player in the future. Not hard to see why we would want him next to cousins who had defensive issues. Jury is still out on Fox. It's not our drafting record that irritates me so much as our refusal to fully embrace a tanking season. I understand our front offices desire to give us a winning product and cultivate a winning environment, but honestly we should've spent Cousins early years tanking and not gunning for the 8th seed. That set us back years.
Click to expand...

I agree that we should have tanked with cousins early years, but the not about the failure of draft picks because stuff like "he was considered a safe pick" \ "he was mentioned as a potential #1" is end of the day just talk. Where are the results? :( not even close.
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#5
#5
dvirc218 said:
q. I'm specifically talking about drafting a game changer. Not only a home run - a Grand Slam.

How are we so awful at this? If I start listing players we missed - it's ben and jerries for the rest of the day. (vegan b&j obviously so no animal has to suffer).
Click to expand...
Very, very, very poor scouting (and the Maloofery years of being just broke).

One thing I have also noticed is that the Kings seem to always just draft from the "Big Name" schools (i.e. Kentucky, Kansas, Duke). That tells me that they don't have the scouting to find the "gems" in the draft and they draft based by national exposure and don't send scouts to scout the "small" school players.
 
Last edited:
E

ESP47

All-Star
#6
#6
ockingsfan said:
Very, very, very poor scouting (and the Maloofery years of being just broke).

One thing I have also noticed is that the Kings seem to always just draft from the "Big Boy" schools (i.e. Kentucky, Kansas, Duke). That tells me that they don't have the scouting to find the "gems" in the draft and they draft based by national exposure and don't send scouts to scout the "small" school players.
Click to expand...
I bet you could pull up mock drafts from each year, close your eyes and point to a random spot on the screen and you would have drafted better than the Kings did over the last decade. I bet 95% of the armchair GMs on this site would have drafted better than the guys being paid to do it for the Kings.
 
The Effort Police

The Effort Police

Starter
#9
#9
ESP47 said:
I bet you could pull up mock drafts from each year, close your eyes and point to a random spot on the screen and you would have drafted better than the Kings did over the last decade. I bet 95% of the armchair GMs on this site would have drafted better than the guys being paid to do it for the Kings.
Click to expand...
Interesting thought experiment.

Going back to 2010, my preferred choices at the places where we picked with people still left on the board would be as follows. Cousins, Kemba, Robinson, McLemore, Vonleh, WCS, Skal (13), Luwawu-Cabarrot (22), Murray (28), Fox, Anunoby (15), Giles (20). Made some whiffs, not gonna lie.
 
Last edited:
J

jiimbob

Starter
#10
#10
ESP47 said:
I bet you could pull up mock drafts from each year, close your eyes and point to a random spot on the screen and you would have drafted better than the Kings did over the last decade. I bet 95% of the armchair GMs on this site would have drafted better than the guys being paid to do it for the Kings.
Click to expand...
I agree. Just 2016 alone once all the trade stuff transpired, I would have gone Dejounte Murray with the 13th pick then Tim Luwawu with the 22nd.
Anyways, I was big on a few others over the years that have payed huge dividends but got a couple wrong as well. I was happy we got Ben as I bought into the Ray Allen comps, and I was big on Elfrid Payton which would have been no worse than Nic I guess but still nothing to write home about.
Bottom line, I think our FO's have failed pretty bad over the years which is sad considering the opportunity they have to view players and get it right.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#11
#11
dvirc218 said:
I apologize for the disrespectful and ironic title.
But let's take a quick look at our top-10 draft picks from the last time we made the playoffs, 2006.

Assumption 1: As a small market our ONLY way of creating a playoff team is through the draft.
Assumption 2: Drafting a "good player" who can improve our team isn't enough. I'm specifically talking about drafting a game changer. Not only a home run - a Grand Slam.

2007,Draft pick number 10: Spencer Hawes. Is he a game changer? no
2008, not top 10 pick
2009,Draft pick number 4: Tyreke Evans. Is he a game changer? We thought he was after his rookie year, but in the end Evans is not a game changer.
2010,Draft pick number 5: Demarcus Cousins. Is he a game changer? Absolutely.
2011,Draft pick number 10: Jimmer Fredette. Is he a game changer? LOL
2012,Draft pick number 5: Thomas Robison . Is he a game changer? Bust
2013,Draft pick number 7: Ben McLemore. Is he a game changer? no
2014,Draft pick number 8: Nik Stauskas .Is he a game changer? nooooo
2015,Draft pick number 6: Willie Cauley-Stein. Is he a game changer? no
2016, not top 10 pick
2017,Draft pick number 5: DeAaron Fox. Is he a game changer? I love the kid, but after one season, we just don't know yet and this question is to be determined...

How are we so awful at this? If I start listing players we missed - it's ben and jerries for the rest of the day. (vegan b&j obviously so no animal has to suffer).
Click to expand...
Some of it is poor picks and some of it is not being high enough to be mess up proof.

Griffith, Towns, Irving, Wall, Davis, Simmons were pretty low risk choices to be outstanding. After top 3, the low risk guys are generally gone.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#12
#12
jiimbob said:
I agree. Just 2016 alone once all the trade stuff transpired, I would have gone Dejounte Murray with the 13th pick then Tim Luwawu with the 22nd.
Anyways, I was big on a few others over the years that have payed huge dividends but got a couple wrong as well. I was happy we got Ben as I bought into the Ray Allen comps, and I was big on Elfrid Payton which would have been no worse than Nic I guess but still nothing to write home about.
Bottom line, I think our FO's have failed pretty bad over the years which is sad considering the opportunity they have to view players and get it right.
Click to expand...
Perhaps that is why they fired our Director of scouting this year.

Hard to guess our worst draft picks all time:
1) Thomas Robinson at 5
2) Trade Biyambo for Fredette at 10
3) Ben Mclemore at 7
4) Pervis Ellison at 1
 
J

jiimbob

Starter
#13
#13
sactowndog said:
Perhaps that is why they fired our Director of scouting this year.

Hard to guess our worst draft picks all time:
1) Thomas Robinson at 5
2) Trade Biyambo for Fredette at 10
3) Ben Mclemore at 7
4) Pervis Ellison at 1
Click to expand...
It all started in 1985 when the Kings picked Joe Kliene with the 6th pick while Karl Malone was available. Guess it made little sense to check out some kid playing for Louisiana Tech.
We have an outstanding history of getting draft picks wrong.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#14
#14
jiimbob said:
It all started in 1985 when the Kings picked Joe Kliene with the 6th pick while Karl Malone was available. Guess it made little sense to check out some kid playing for Louisiana Tech.
We have an outstanding history of getting draft picks wrong.
Click to expand...
1985? Dude, this started all the way back in 1950 when we (as the Royals) wasted the #9 pick on Joe McNamee (career .298 shooter, lasted two years in the league) instead of selecting future Hall of Famer Bill Sharman.

And don't look now, but the Baltimore Bullets took some dude named Don Rehfeldt #2 over Bob Cousy. LOLWIZARDS!!!!!

Sorry, strike that. I forgot that the Kings are the only teams that ever messes up draft picks.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#15
#15
jiimbob said:
It all started in 1985 when the Kings picked Joe Kliene with the 6th pick while Karl Malone was available. Guess it made little sense to check out some kid playing for Louisiana Tech.
We have an outstanding history of getting draft picks wrong.
Click to expand...
That was in the consideration set. So many from which to choose. Heck PapaG could have easily made the list.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#16
#16
Capt. Factorial said:
1985? Dude, this started all the way back in 1950 when we (as the Royals) wasted the #9 pick on Joe McNamee (career .298 shooter, lasted two years in the league) instead of selecting future Hall of Famer Bill Sharman.

And don't look now, but the Baltimore Bullets took some dude named Don Rehfeldt #2 over Bob Cousy. LOLWIZARDS!!!!!

Sorry, strike that. I forgot that the Kings are the only teams that ever messes up draft picks.
Click to expand...
I'd like to point out that the same GM that made that pick and also traded away two starters and a first round draft pick for Derrick (bad knee's) Smith is the same GM that traded away Oscar Robertson from the Royals. Mr. Joe Axelson.. That was then and this is now. Different time and many different GM's later. Petrie was a very good GM who made many good picks. Peja, Hedo, Kevin Martin, Brian Grant, Jason Williams, Gerald Wallace and Corliss Williamson. To imply that we've made more bad choices than good is an exaggeration. There's also Lawrence Funderburke and Ricky Berry, who unfortunately commited sucide.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#17
#17
Capt. Factorial said:
1985? Dude, this started all the way back in 1950 when we (as the Royals) wasted the #9 pick on Joe McNamee (career .298 shooter, lasted two years in the league) instead of selecting future Hall of Famer Bill Sharman.

And don't look now, but the Baltimore Bullets took some dude named Don Rehfeldt #2 over Bob Cousy. LOLWIZARDS!!!!!

Sorry, strike that. I forgot that the Kings are the only teams that ever messes up draft picks.
Click to expand...
Nah but we seem to have a special exceptional talent!

I’m mean our list of great draft choices in Sacramento is pretty short:
1) Peja Stojakivich at 14
2) Lionel Simmons at 7
3) Kevin Martin at 26
4) Demarcus Cousins at 5
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#18
#18
bajaden said:
I'd like to point out that the same GM that made that pick and also traded away two starters and a first round draft pick for Derrick (bad knee's) Smith is the same GM that traded away Oscar Robertson from the Royals. Mr. Joe Axelson.. That was then and this is now. Different time and many different GM's later. Petrie was a very good GM who made many good picks. Peja, Hedo, Kevin Martin, Brian Grant, Jason Williams, Gerald Wallace and Corliss Williamson. To imply that we've made more bad choices than good is an exaggeration. There's also Lawrence Funderburke and Ricky Berry, who unfortunately commited sucide.
Click to expand...
An exaggeration? Just looking at the Kings draft picks is a pretty sad list.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#19
#19
sactowndog said:
Nah but we seem to have a special exceptional talent!

I’m mean our list of great draft choices in Sacramento is pretty short:
1) Peja Stojakivich at 14
2) Lionel Simmons at 7
3) Kevin Martin at 26
4) Demarcus Cousins at 5
Click to expand...
OK, well first off, you forgot some guys.
Isaiah Thomas at 60
Gerald Wallace at 25
Hedo Turkoglu at 16
Brian Grant at 8
Kenny Smith at 6
Michael Adams at 66
All players selected during the Sacramento era who have more career Win Shares than Cousins. And I'm using that as the criterion to list here, not saying that's the exhaustive list of good draft picks.
And of course, by the same token you're basically writing off players like Fox, Giles, Skal, and even Willie (still in his third year) as wastes before the paint is even dry.

Second...Lionel Simmons? Seriously? By career Win Shares Simmons appears to be the 27th-best player we've drafted in the Sacramento era, and you list him at #2? No wonder you think our drafting has sucked, if you think Simmons is the second-best draft pick we've made.

Third, let's just look at this from a more detached point of view. How many players drafted since 1985 have accumulated 40 WS or more in their career? The answer is 279. How many of them did the Kings pick? 10. That's 3.6% of those players selected by the Kings. But what percentage of draft picks did the Kings have? The answer is about 3.8% (accounting for trades) so we're really kind of right on par. Sure, we've been a bit overrepresented in top-10 picks during that time (about 5.6% of top-10 picks) but then again underrepresented in top-3 picks (2.0% of top-3 picks) so correcting for draft position shouldn't change that too terribly much. After correction, we're probably a bit worse than average. But the idea that we're specially exceptionally bad comes more from the fact that you're paying special exceptional attention to our drafting and only vague attention to the drafting of the 29 other teams than it does from some special exceptional mistalent of ours.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#20
#20
Capt. Factorial said:
OK, well first off, you forgot some guys.
Isaiah Thomas at 60
Gerald Wallace at 25
Hedo Turkoglu at 16
Brian Grant at 8
Kenny Smith at 6
Michael Adams at 66
All players selected during the Sacramento era who have more career Win Shares than Cousins. And I'm using that as the criterion to list here, not saying that's the exhaustive list of good draft picks.
And of course, by the same token you're basically writing off players like Fox, Giles, Skal, and even Willie (still in his third year) as wastes before the paint is even dry.

Second...Lionel Simmons? Seriously? By career Win Shares Simmons appears to be the 27th-best player we've drafted in the Sacramento era, and you list him at #2? No wonder you think our drafting has sucked, if you think Simmons is the second-best draft pick we've made.

Third, let's just look at this from a more detached point of view. How many players drafted since 1985 have accumulated 40 WS or more in their career? The answer is 279. How many of them did the Kings pick? 10. That's 3.6% of those players selected by the Kings. But what percentage of draft picks did the Kings have? The answer is about 3.8% (accounting for trades) so we're really kind of right on par. Sure, we've been a bit overrepresented in top-10 picks during that time (about 5.6% of top-10 picks) but then again underrepresented in top-3 picks (2.0% of top-3 picks) so correcting for draft position shouldn't change that too terribly much. After correction, we're probably a bit worse than average. But the idea that we're specially exceptionally bad comes more from the fact that you're paying special exceptional attention to our drafting and only vague attention to the drafting of the 29 other teams than it does from some special exceptional mistalent of ours.
Click to expand...
Some interesting statistics. I left off Isaiah because I think he was a product of Brad Stevens.

Simmons was runner up Rookie of the year and retired early due to injuries. Given he just played on the Kings not sure win shares is a fair measure. But I’m open to arguments about other players.

I think your win shares statistics might be skewed a bit in the Petrie era. How many of those win shares are players drafted by Geoff and by players who ended up on other championship teams like Kenny Smith. I’m not sure that is the best metric to judge drafting success.
 
Tetsujin

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#21
#21
sactowndog said:
Some interesting statistics. I left off Isaiah because I think he was a product of Brad Stevens.

Simmons was runner up Rookie of the year and retired early due to injuries. Given he just played on the Kings not sure win shares is a fair measure. But I’m open to arguments about other players.

I think your win shares statistics might be skewed a bit in the Petrie era. How many of those win shares are players drafted by Geoff and by players who ended up on other championship teams like Kenny Smith. I’m not sure that is the best metric to judge drafting success.
Click to expand...
Given that you magically left RekeROY off your list of good draft picks, I'm not sure why you're using Simmons' ROY runner-up status as any indication of how great he was as a draft pick.
 
Tetsujin

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#22
#22
jiimbob said:
It all started in 1985 when the Kings picked Joe Kliene with the 6th pick while Karl Malone was available. Guess it made little sense to check out some kid playing for Louisiana Tech.
We have an outstanding history of getting draft picks wrong.
Click to expand...
It's not like the Kings are the only team that passed on the dude though, Malone went 13th, having been passed on for Patrick Ewing (also a HOFer), Chris Mullin (fantastic player/horrific at running a basketball team), Wayman Tisdale (one of the most beloved Kings of all time, not as good as Karl Malone), Xavier McDaniel, Benoit Benjamin, Detlef Schrempf, Charles Oakley (all had good careers, not the Mailman), Ed Pickney (meh), Jon Koncak, Joe Kliene (at least both dudes spent a decade in the league), Keith Lee, Kenny Green (gone from the league within three seasons). Also seems important to note that Joe effing Dumars, future NBA finals MVP, lasted all the way to the 18th pick and Mario Elie, super role player extraordinaire, was picked somewhere in the hundreds that year.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#23
#23
Tetsujin said:
Given that you magically left RekeROY off your list of good draft picks, I'm not sure why you're using Simmons' ROY runner-up status as any indication of how great he was as a draft pick.
Click to expand...
Guys it was just my take of the top. Your free to add yours. Simmons scored over 5000 points in 7 years. It was not meant to be an exhaustive list and we we don’t have a handful of multi year all stars to choose from. One we did have, teamwise was pretty disruptive. There aren’t a lot of jerseys hanging from our rafters.
 
Iced Espresso

Iced Espresso

Starter
#24
#24
sactowndog said:
Guys it was just my take of the top. Your free to add yours. Simmons scored over 5000 points in 7 years. It was not meant to be an exhaustive list and we we don’t have a handful of multi year all stars to choose from. One we did have, teamwise was pretty disruptive. There aren’t a lot of jerseys hanging from our rafters.
Click to expand...
The L-Train was solid before he got hurt if you ask me.

Peja & Artest were better.
Rudy probably at times.
4th best SF I can think of in Sac history.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#25
#25
Tetsujin said:
It's not like the Kings are the only team that passed on the dude though, Malone went 13th, having been passed on for Patrick Ewing (also a HOFer), Chris Mullin (fantastic player/horrific at running a basketball team), Wayman Tisdale (one of the most beloved Kings of all time, not as good as Karl Malone), Xavier McDaniel, Benoit Benjamin, Detlef Schrempf, Charles Oakley (all had good careers, not the Mailman), Ed Pickney (meh), Jon Koncak, Joe Kliene (at least both dudes spent a decade in the league), Keith Lee, Kenny Green (gone from the league within three seasons). Also seems important to note that Joe effing Dumars, future NBA finals MVP, lasted all the way to the 18th pick and Mario Elie, super role player extraordinaire, was picked somewhere in the hundreds that year.
Click to expand...
I don't agree with his premise, but in the case of Kliene and Malone, he's right. I was screaming at my TV for the Kings to pick Malone, but they ended up drafting for need, and at the time they felt we needed a center, even though there wasn't a center worthy of that pick left. Anyone that followed college basketball at the time knew that Malone had a much bigger upside than Joe Kliene. Hey, we missed on Kevin Johnson as well. I mean what a great fit he would have been. From Sacramento, and he went to school 80 miles up the interstate at Cal. Instead we took Kenny Smith one spot earlier. He wasn't a bad pick, but Johnson was better. Hey, 5 spots later Reggie Miller was taken. Hindsight is a 100% as they say.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#27
#27
Iced Espresso said:
The L-Train was solid before he got hurt if you ask me.

Peja & Artest were better.
Rudy probably at times.
4th best SF I can think of in Sac history.
Click to expand...
Peja was the only one we drafted. Not too many all-stars drafted and developed by the Kings. A few we drafted and gave up on: Thomas and Whiteside. The rest is picking between average to good players many who went on to be roll players on other championship teams: Kenny Smith, Jason Williams.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#28
#28
bajaden said:
Actually I think Ricky Berry would have been somewhere on that list, but we'll never know.
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree. Thought about putting him on my list but for the time he played just couldn’t. It’s a hard list to create because other than Peja you don’t have too many multi all star caliber players. I’m not sure any other team would have such a limited set of players drafted and developed into all stars since the 80’s.

IT was really hard because he was a role player until falling under Brad. Brad excelled at using his strengths and hiding his weaknesses and we shall see how he does next year.
 
E

ESP47

All-Star
#29
#29
The Effort Police said:
Interesting thought experiment.

Going back to 2010, my preferred choices at the places where we picked with people still left on the board would be as follows. Cousins, Kemba, Robinson, McLemore, Vonleh, WCS, Skal (13), Luwawu-Cabarrot (22), Murray (28), Fox, Anunoby (15), Giles (20). Made some whiffs, not gonna lie.
Click to expand...
We all would have made some whiffs for sure but I think we would nearly all have come out ahead of what really happened. My picks would have been very similar to yours except I would have taken Elfrid Payton over Vonleh and then Baldwin at 13, Skal at 22 and Murray at 28. I don't know who I would have picked during the Jimmer draft. I didn't like Jimmer or Biyombo but I didn't really like any of the other players around them either so I can't act like I would have picked Klay or Kawhi. Either way, picking anyone other than Jimmer in that vicinity would have been a success.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.