ESPN 25 Win Season Projection

K

kingdivac

All-Star
#4
#4
kingsfan1984 said:
Seems a tad low. Id wager closer to 30 31 wins
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I couldn't tell you what it'd be. I do wonder if there could be some marked improvement, and the media as usual goes by the year before heavily. The article has it right - at least 1 to 2 players must break-out for them to hope to be .500.
 
L

Larry David

Starter
#5
#5
The Kings could be a lot better and still win 25-27 games.

Two reasons. Probably less games against tanking teams. Also West should be a lot better.

Because it was the last year before the lottery odds changed, there was unusually high tanking. Both more than the usual 2-4 teams tanking. And how long and hard the teams tanked for position. Teams will tank next year, especially when their seasons are lost. But, a LOT of the Kings wins after February were against teams that were already taking. I believe tanking inflated the Kings win total during calendar year 2018. They were handed some wins they probably have to fight for next year.

The West is even better. There aren't any easy wins for the Kings in the West. Almost 2/3 of the Kings games are West games, and they won't have great odds to win most of those games. Granted, the East is worse. But, 15 of those East games are on the road. In perhaps as many as half, the Kings might win those game in Golden One. But, road games, particularly those on long road trips don't come easy.

If they crush the bottom of the east at home, do well against the bottom of the east at home, pull a few upsets at home, and clean up against tankers late ... maybe the max at 35 wins. I think that's total best case with development and health.

I think the Kings will be better than last year and yet might not break 30 wins. And, that's if everybody is healthy.

41 wins ... with this roster running through the West ... that seems fairly nuts.
 
King Baller

King Baller

All-Star
#7
#7
The first goal is .500 ball at home. then a few games above .500 at home. Then win 15 or 16 road games overall and BOOM 35 to 37 wins:) Doable but as previously stated a couple of the Young Guns need to have break out seasons!
 
L

Larry David

Starter
#8
#8
King Baller said:
The first goal is .500 ball at home. then a few games above .500 at home. Then win 15 or 16 road games overall and BOOM 35 to 37 wins:) Doable but as previously stated a couple of the Young Guns need to have break out seasons!
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.500 ball at home is a tall order.

Of the 41 home games, you play 26 against the West.

Let's say the Kings crush the East at home. Let's pencil them in for 10-5 against the East. Banking that favorable win total, in order to get to 21-20 at home, the would have to go 11-15 at home against the West.
 
pdxKingsFan

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#10
#10
35 wins is both a dream and a reasonable goal for this squad.

I think 25 is unfair. We're going to be worse than last year? Yes, LeBron came to LA, yes teams that were better than us got better. But some teams in the West got worse or tread water and we didn't pile up wins from the dregs of the league either. Quite a few of our wins came from teams significantly better than us to many folks dismay. So unless we're deliberately losing games, something we have no incentive to do whatsoever, I see 30 as the floor. +/- 2 games
 
The Effort Police

The Effort Police

Starter
#11
#11
Year after year the fanbase cries foul when these projections come out, but more often than not they're right.

Wouldn't be surprised to see 25 wins. Someone's getting fired though if that happens.
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#13
#13
under 30 wins sounds accurate to me, they aren't in that stage of winning yet unless one or two of the young players have themselves a eye opening season ala Mitchell, Simmons or Tatum
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#14
#14
I'm guessing 35 wins next season.

I think the backcourt of Fox, Buddy and Bogdan is going to take a big step forward next year. :)
Giles and Bagley will provide an inside scoring and rebounding presence. :cool:
WCS will become more consistent. ;)
JJ will show he can become a 3 and D small forward. :)
 
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N

Nokidding

Bench
#17
#17
Depends how strong the West is in reality cause on paper it's a absolute nightmare currently. As long as Dave does not completely kill the rotations I think with the new additions we have a reasonable high IQ team who should not beat themselves like every team over the past 7 years or so plus the fact we have nothing to tank for should help us win 3-5 extra games of what we would normally in a tanking scenario. I will say 28-34 is doable.
 
jcassio

jcassio

Starter
#18
#18
Turgenev said:
Continuity, new additions, and general improvement. 25 wins is underachieving. I don't think 30 wins is overachieving. 35 would be really great.
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My sentiments exactly.
Also, as long as you like 6’6 small forwards, we are three-deep at every position. That should give us a certain amount of sustainability (throughout the season) that many playoff teams lack.
 
jcassio

jcassio

Starter
#21
#21
DesertFox said:
3 deep at every position, but no contender level starters.
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But isn't that what this season is for? To give our "contender level starters" an opportunity to develop and show themselves? Which is all the more reason why we can't be giving minutes to veterans at the expense of our developing youngsters.

p.s. Before someone calls me on this, I know I've said many times in the past that the youngsters need to earn their minutes. But I see nothing inconsistent with that and what I just said about not "giving minutes to veterans at the expense of our developing youngsters." I don't want us to breed a team with players who feel they are entitled to minutes regardless of how they play.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#24
#24
I just think the Kings have got to get in the 30s this season. Thirty-five wins is a realistic goal for the following reasons:

First, the Kings were engaged in a "quasi-tank" last year. There is going to be no wishy-washiness next year. It's all about "just win, baby, win." The wishy-washiness not only affected lineups, it affected the mentality of the players. This coming season there will be no ambivalence. Such focus should account for another three wins, at the least. In March and April when other teams are either resting players for the playoffs or resting players for draft position, the Kings should and will be focused on just winning.

Second, there has been a talent infusion: Bagley, Giles, Bjelica, and Yogi. Giles spent all last year practicing with the team; he's not new to the system. Yogi and Bjelica are vets that should easily adapt to their first year with the Kings. Bagley is the only player that will find the whole scene absolutely new, but he's got enough raw talent to compensate for it somewhat.

Third, and this goes along with the talent infusion, the bench is going to be better than last year. The Kings have to win the battle of the bench to get into the 30s.

Fourth, I am banking on the premise that the Kings are going to have an entirely different identity than last year - they will be a running team. That's been the word from Vlade and from Fox - run! Based on everything I've heard, and based on the talent at hand, I'm predicting an entirely different style for this team. They will not be last in pace like they were last year; they will be in the top 5 in the league in pace. A bold prediction, I know, but with players like Fox, Giles, Bagley, WCS, and others there is just no reason whatsoever that their style of play won't be entirely different than last year. If the style of play remains "slow-mo," see my sixth point below.

Fifth, young players with talent tend to get better with age. Just like with Hield last year, we're going to see some surprises on the upside this coming season.

Sixth, the jobs of Divac and Joerger are on the line. There is no 1st round pick this year, and the last thing on earth Kings' management wants to see is some other team get a top 5 pick with "their pick." They know it would unleash a "bash parade," maybe even worse than after the Cousins' trade. If the Kings don't crack the 30 barrier, it's going to be tough for them to keep their jobs, imo.
 
E

ESP47

All-Star
#25
#25
They'll probably win about the same amount as last year. They'll lose a few more against the teams in the west that got better and then they'll win a few more against the teams that tank at the end of the year. IMO those wins don't really count for anything though since they'll be against G Leaguers.
 
SacTownKid

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#26
#26
I have no idea what the expectations are win wise, but no improvement from last year I think will spark changes somewhere. I think the bench marks statistically will revolve around style and individual success. The Kings need to have some individual standouts even more than wins because they are falling way behind in showcasing their assets. They have no pick next year and kept almost every draft pick they've had that wasn't waived already of course and since the cap space has been a major failure it's all they have. They have to start showing the NBA they have real talent on the roster. This is all on Dave Joergers shoulders this year. He can either drive that final nail in the coffin, or bust if wide open. It's all on how he decides to coach the team.
 
S

sactowndog

All-Star
#27
#27
Kingster said:
I just think the Kings have got to get in the 30s this season. Thirty-five wins is a realistic goal for the following reasons:

Fourth, I am banking on the premise that the Kings are going to have an entirely different identity than last year - they will be a running team. That's been the word from Vlade and from Fox - run! Based on everything I've heard, and based on the talent at hand, I'm predicting an entirely different style for this team. They will not be last in pace like they were last year; they will be in the top 5 in the league in pace. A bold prediction, I know, but with players like Fox, Giles, Bagley, WCS, and others there is just no reason whatsoever that their style of play won't be entirely different than last year. If the style of play remains "slow-mo," see my sixth point below.
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It’s not just pace it’s also shooters. The Kings can’t be 3rd in 3 pt. Shooting percentage and 28th in attempts. To me pace and 3 pt attempts are on Fox.
 
Gliesian

Gliesian

Bench
#28
#28
Larry David said:
The Kings could be a lot better and still win 25-27 games.

Two reasons. Probably less games against tanking teams. Also West should be a lot better.

Because it was the last year before the lottery odds changed, there was unusually high tanking. Both more than the usual 2-4 teams tanking. And how long and hard the teams tanked for position. Teams will tank next year, especially when their seasons are lost. But, a LOT of the Kings wins after February were against teams that were already taking. I believe tanking inflated the Kings win total during calendar year 2018. They were handed some wins they probably have to fight for next year.

The West is even better. There aren't any easy wins for the Kings in the West. Almost 2/3 of the Kings games are West games, and they won't have great odds to win most of those games. Granted, the East is worse. But, 15 of those East games are on the road. In perhaps as many as half, the Kings might win those game in Golden One. But, road games, particularly those on long road trips don't come easy.

If they crush the bottom of the east at home, do well against the bottom of the east at home, pull a few upsets at home, and clean up against tankers late ... maybe the max at 35 wins. I think that's total best case with development and health.

I think the Kings will be better than last year and yet might not break 30 wins. And, that's if everybody is healthy.

41 wins ... with this roster running through the West ... that seems fairly nuts.
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This. But I'd argue that NO teams will tank next year. With the lottery change, "culture", or whatever you want to call it, outweighs the benefits of losing completely. It's a paradigm shift. Bad teams will be out to slaughter us from beginning to end, and I don't think fans are prepared for how rough this upcoming season will be.
 
macadocious

macadocious

Starter
#29
#29
Teams will still tank and this is the only things that might push the Kings close to 30 wins. Even if Fox and Buddy make a leap and Bagley/Giles come close to playing replacement level (we should be so lucky) ball we are not a good team.
 
D

dude12

Hall of Famer
#30
#30
I think Kings may surprise many and approach 32-35....and if they got closer to 37-38 I won’t be shocked as that most likely means Fox has elevated his game, Giles and Bagley and WCS defensively are really good, Hield continues to elevate game, Bogie elevates his game and JJ can knock down 3’s at a rate closer to 40% than 30%. Ferrell is a big upgrade over Hill and Mason from last year. Bjelica plays at a solid level.

The key is going to be Fox though, he’s the one that can take this team farther.
 
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