De'Aaron Fox: Beyond the arc and the midrange jumper

[Gliesian]

De'Aaron Fox shot 3.3 attempts from three last year at 37%. His midrange jumper had roughly the same numbers. Analytics say he shouldn't be taking midrange jumpers but a lot of fans would prefer it to be an integral part of his game.
I've noticed so far this year that Fox is avoiding taking open(ish) 3s and is taking a few midrange shots. Buddy is too, which makes me think it's just a way to get confidence. I have no doubt that his midrange jumper is impossible to defend however, and his accuracy will go way up.

My questions are, does he need to take/make more 3s to win a ring? Is a midrange jumper the perfect compliment to his game, analytics be damned? Or, should he use both?

It seems like the 3 is God in the modern NBA, especially for your primary ball handler. Fox's game is clearly having open space and causing havoc in the paint, particularly in transition.

How do you feel Fox should develop his perimeter game moving forward?

 

[kingsfan1984]

Ive been advocating since the beginning of his career he should be taking 6 3s a game on average to develop that aspect of his game and creat more comfort with the shot.

Shoot more 3s Fox!

 

[Gliesian]

Ive been advocating since the beginning of his career he should be taking 6 3s a game on average to develop that aspect of his game and creat more comfort with the shot.

Shoot more 3s Fox!

I agree he should take more regardless of the %. If the % goes down as the attempts go up, 6 attempts is probably right around the goldielocks zone. For this year, I'd like to see him add 1 more attempt per game than last year. The midrange jumper should be reserved for momentum swings and buzzer beaters!

 

[mac]

I feel less strongly about 3s for Fox than I do about midrange pullups. Defenses are going to figure out that he wants to go charging into the lane trying to draw a foul and they will sag off and dare him to shoot. When he's taking and making open midrange shots it opens up our offense.

 

[TaxMan]

Winning a ring? I guess more threes is better in the modern NBA. However, i’d prefer the whole team, including fox, does what they need to gain confident in the new offense. I think that happens by seeing more shots go through the basket. I personally never want to see fox with a game when he is at the basket and behind the 3 point line exclusively. He has such potential as a dynamic, do everything player on offense that you limit his effectiveness of take the midrange game out....but I’m also getting a bit bored of the 3 is king philosophy, analytics be damned.

 

[kb02]

He'll shoot more this year, simply because he'll have more set shots once the offense is running smoothly. That said, take what the defense gives you. He's never going to Curry. He needs to collapse opposing defenses.

 

[Gguod]

If defenders constantly go under the screen, then he has to take the pull up 3. If defender goes over and the screeners defender sags, pass it to the screener for a three. If the defender goes over and the screeners defender hendges hard then pass it to the screener for a lay up. If they hedge and defense rotates, finde the open guy on corner. Mid range pull up should be the last option especially if you make 40% of them or lower.

 

[Kingster]

De'Aaron Fox shot 3.3 attempts from three last year at 37%. His midrange jumper had roughly the same numbers. Analytics say he shouldn't be taking midrange jumpers but a lot of fans would prefer it to be an integral part of his game.
I've noticed so far this year that Fox is avoiding taking open(ish) 3s and is taking a few midrange shots. Buddy is too, which makes me think it's just a way to get confidence. I have no doubt that his midrange jumper is impossible to defend however, and his accuracy will go way up.

My questions are, does he need to take/make more 3s to win a ring? Is a midrange jumper the perfect compliment to his game, analytics be damned? Or, should he use both?

It seems like the 3 is God in the modern NBA, especially for your primary ball handler. Fox's game is clearly having open space and causing havoc in the paint, particularly in transition.

How do you feel Fox should develop his perimeter game moving forward?

He definitely should be taking more 3s. And of course, it would help if he makes a lot of them. It will help the team, his game in particular, and his long term health. More 3s will open up the space for his midrange and his layup attempts. I haven't looked at the stats for him this year, but my sense is that he's not taking as many or making as many as last year. I could be wrong on that. I wouldn't mind if he did a Buddy mind-meld and start a game throwing up five 3s in a row (and making 3 out of the 5, of course). Can you imagine the terror in the opposition if Fox would start a game like that? The floor would open up like the Grand Canyon, creating all kinds of opportunities for Fox & Friends. The return of Bagley and his inside presence is going to open up more opportunities for very easy outside shots by Fox (and others).

 

[twslam07]

Simply put? He needs to become a better shooter...from everywhere.

I'm starting to think his 3PT% was an anomaly last year or that he can't maintain that high of a % if he increases the volume of his 3PA. I went ahead and pulled the TS%s for the top PGs in the league over their careers and compared it against the % of shots they take and the % those shots go in. See below:



Again, this is career stats for each one of these players so keep that in mind. Fox has the highest FG% when shooting from 0-3ft, but guys like Bledsoe, Westbrook, & Wall (players I would say Fox is comparable to with their elite athleticism, but lack of shooting) shoot more of their FGAs from 0-3ft than Fox.

However, when you start to look at the FG% for midrange & 3PT%, it becomes clear how far behind Fox is from the efficient PGs (that are #1-#3 options on their team). Out of 13 players, he's...

• 12th in 10-16ft FG%
• 13th in 16ft-3pt FG%
• 11th in 3PT%

I went ahead and consolidated the table above so that 3-10, 10-16, and 16-3pt is now 3-3pt. See below:



This clearly illustrates two things. Out of 13 players, Fox is 11th in 3ft-3PT FG%. However, he is 2nd in % of FGA from 3ft-3PT (e.g., he's one of the worst shooters from that part of the floor, but regardless, he shoots a lot from that part of the floor).


I also wanted to run a correlation analysis to see if any of these metrics tend to correlate with TS% (removed Fox's numbers from the analysis). Below are those results:



So this is saying that PGs that are #1-#3 options on their team tend to be more efficient if they...

1. Shoot a high % from the free throw line
2. Have a higher percentage of their shots be 3PA
3. Shoot a high % from 3PT
4. Shoot a high % from 0-3ft

Free Throw Rate (which we have all been wanting Fox to increase) doesn't tend to correlate with TS% among these top PGs. The only thing that has a high correlation that Fox is good at is FG% from 0-3ft. Everything else, he's ranked 11th or worse. He needs to become a much better shooter across the board if we want to rely on his as a go-to option. Otherwise, he'll top out as a Bledsoe, Westbrook, or Wall who aren't very efficient scorers in this new era of basketball.

 

[ockingsfan]

I want to see Fox more aggressive looking to score. It doesn’t matter if it’s a 3 or a 2, as long he takes what the defense gives him.

I want him to try and target 22 pts/game as his goal every game. When Fox scores 20+ per game, he gives the Kings the best chance to win.

This is Fox’s third year. He needs to find his Alpha dawg and let it out!

 

[Gliesian]

Simply put? He needs to become a better shooter...from everywhere.

I'm starting to think his 3PT% was an anomaly last year or that he can't maintain that high of a % if he increases the volume of his 3PA. I went ahead and pulled the TS%s for the top PGs in the league over their careers and compared it against the % of shots they take and the % those shots go in. See below:

View attachment 9345

Again, this is career stats for each one of these players so keep that in mind. Fox has the highest FG% when shooting from 0-3ft, but guys like Bledsoe, Westbrook, & Wall (players I would say Fox is comparable to with their elite athleticism, but lack of shooting) shoot more of their FGAs from 0-3ft than Fox.

However, when you start to look at the FG% for midrange & 3PT%, it becomes clear how far behind Fox is from the efficient PGs (that are #1-#3 options on their team). Out of 13 players, he's...

• 12th in 10-16ft FG%
• 13th in 16ft-3pt FG%
• 11th in 3PT%

I went ahead and consolidated the table above so that 3-10, 10-16, and 16-3pt is now 3-3pt. See below:

View attachment 9346

This clearly illustrates two things. Out of 13 players, Fox is 11th in 3ft-3PT FG%. However, he is 2nd in % of FGA from 3ft-3PT (e.g., he's one of the worst shooters from that part of the floor, but regardless, he shoots a lot from that part of the floor).


I also wanted to run a correlation analysis to see if any of these metrics tend to correlate with TS% (removed Fox's numbers from the analysis). Below are those results:

View attachment 9348

So this is saying that PGs that are #1-#3 options on their team tend to be more efficient if they...

1. Shoot a high % from the free throw line
2. Have a higher percentage of their shots be 3PA
3. Shoot a high % from 3PT
4. Shoot a high % from 0-3ft

Free Throw Rate (which we have all been wanting Fox to increase) doesn't tend to correlate with TS% among these top PGs. The only thing that has a high correlation that Fox is good at is FG% from 0-3ft. Everything else, he's ranked 11th or worse. He needs to become a much better shooter across the board if we want to rely on his as a go-to option. Otherwise, he'll top out as a Bledsoe, Westbrook, or Wall who aren't very efficient scorers in this new era of basketball.

Great stuff! Although we take this with a huge grain of salt (freshman+ sophemore years), it makes me want to change my answer to include 'stop taking mid range jumpers'. The current NBA Meta is King. Just a few to keep the defense guessing.
Also, I'm trying to figure out which player on that list Fox might become, but it seems like he is going to be unique. Maybe Hardenesque with less 3PA and more assists.

 

[twslam07]

Great stuff! Although we take this with a huge grain of salt (freshman+ sophemore years), it makes me want to change my answer to include 'stop taking mid range jumpers'. The current NBA Meta is King. Just a few to keep the defense guessing.
Also, I'm trying to figure out which player on that list Fox might become, but it seems like he is going to be unique. Maybe Hardenesque with less 3PA and more assists.

Honestly, I think Bledsoe is a pretty good comp. Pretty good scorer, pretty good playmaker, good defender, good finisher at the rim, streaky/inconsistent shooter, has an advantage athletically against his opponents, etc. Unfortunately for us, Bledsoe shouldn't really be a #1 or #2 option on a contender. I'm not saying Fox can't become better than Bledsoe but they seem somewhat similar at this point.

If you can't punish defenders for going under the pick & roll, your pick & roll game is immediately much less effective. If someone goes over the screen, you're essentially left with a 2 on 1 against their big man. If they switch, you likely have created a mismatch. If they hedge, you've essentially have drawn two defenders to you and have an open man somewhere on the floor. However, if they go under, nothing has really changed from a defensive standpoint if you can't hit that open three.

 

[Gliesian]

Honestly, I think Bledsoe is a pretty good comp. Pretty good scorer, pretty good playmaker, good defender, good finisher at the rim, streaky/inconsistent shooter, has an advantage athletically against his opponents, etc. Unfortunately for us, Bledsoe shouldn't really be a #1 or #2 option on a contender. I'm not saying Fox can't become better than Bledsoe but they seem somewhat similar at this point.

If you can't punish defenders for going under the pick & roll, your pick & roll game is immediately much less effective. If someone goes over the screen, you're essentially left with a 2 on 1 against their big man. If they switch, you likely have created a mismatch. If they hedge, you've essentially have drawn two defenders to you and have an open man somewhere on the floor. However, if they go under, nothing has really changed from a defensive standpoint if you can't hit that open three.

It's a good comparison but I hope that's not his ceiling I think Fox's FTA will skyrocket when he reaches his prime. This season he's ranked 13th in FTA. I'm not a big fan of Harden either, but I hope Fox can make his own version of that ridiculous efficiency. Harden has 15 FTA per game this season. wait WHAT

 

[Kingster]

Honestly, I think Bledsoe is a pretty good comp. Pretty good scorer, pretty good playmaker, good defender, good finisher at the rim, streaky/inconsistent shooter, has an advantage athletically against his opponents, etc. Unfortunately for us, Bledsoe shouldn't really be a #1 or #2 option on a contender. I'm not saying Fox can't become better than Bledsoe but they seem somewhat similar at this point.

If you can't punish defenders for going under the pick & roll, your pick & roll game is immediately much less effective. If someone goes over the screen, you're essentially left with a 2 on 1 against their big man. If they switch, you likely have created a mismatch. If they hedge, you've essentially have drawn two defenders to you and have an open man somewhere on the floor. However, if they go under, nothing has really changed from a defensive standpoint if you can't hit that open three.

I just don't think Fox will ever do anything as stupid as Bledsoe when he took the ball out of bounds and started dribble up the floor. Fox is more of a gamer than Bledsoe ever will be.

 

[Kingster]

Simply put? He needs to become a better shooter...from everywhere.

I'm starting to think his 3PT% was an anomaly last year or that he can't maintain that high of a % if he increases the volume of his 3PA. I went ahead and pulled the TS%s for the top PGs in the league over their careers and compared it against the % of shots they take and the % those shots go in.

I actually think it's just the opposite: His 3 PT% is an anomaly in the nine games he's played so far. Which would you rather base your prediction on - a nine game sample with a new coach and a new system, or an 82 game sample? Last year Fox made 37% of his 3s. I feel very, very safe in saying this: the 37% he achieved at age 20 is not going to be his high point for 3pt% in his career. Far from it.

 

[twslam07]

I actually think it's just the opposite: His 3 PT% is an anomaly in the nine games he's played so far. Which would you rather base your prediction on - a nine game sample with a new coach and a new system, or an 82 game sample? Last year Fox made 37% of his 3s. I feel very, very safe in saying this: the 37% he achieved at age 20 is not going to be his high point for 3pt% in his career. Far from it.

What made you think I was going off of just 9 games?

2016-17
He shot 24.6% from the college 3 on 69 3PA
He shot 73.6% from the free throw line on 212 FTA

2017-18
He shot 30.7% from the 3 on 153 3PA
He shot 35.0% from 16ft-3PT
He shot 72.3% from the free throw line on 195 FTA

2018-19
He shot 37.1% from the 3 on 232 3PA
He shot 37.3% from 16ft-3PT
He shot 72.7% from the free throw line on 417 FTA

2019-20
He shot 33.3% from the 3 on 30 3PA
He shot 25.0% from 16ft-3PT
He shot 71.0% from the free throw line on 62 FTA


His FT% has been flat & his midrange % has never been above 40%. This is what I'm looking at when I make that determination. If his shot got better, why aren't we also seeing the increase in something like FT%? FT% is usually a good predictor of 3PT%. Not many people who shoot 71-72% (or lower) from the line tend to shoot 37% (or higher) from three. Not to mention his 3PT% has been from 24.6%-30.7% for two of the last three years, and he's sitting at 33% in his fourth year so far.

Look I'm not saying he can't be a good 3PT shooter. I'm just saying we shouldn't be counting our chickens before they hatch.

 

[twslam07]

I just don't think Fox will ever do anything as stupid as Bledsoe when he took the ball out of bounds and started dribble up the floor. Fox is more of a gamer than Bledsoe ever will be.

I'm not saying they are the same person. They obviously have differences, but they do have a fair amount of similarities.

 

[Kingster]

I'm not saying they are the same person. They obviously have differences, but they do have a fair amount of similarities.

Do you remember Bledsoe when he first came into the league? I don't see any resemblance of 21 year old Fox to a 21 year old Bledsoe other than they played pretty good defense. Bledsoe wasn't close to being the dynamic difference maker of Fox. He was just a guy out on the floor. From age 21 (his first year) to age 23 he was making on average 6.7 to 8.5 points per game with around 3 assists a game. He took a big jump up when he was age 24 to 17.7 pts and 5.5 assists per game. I'm looking for Fox to take it to another level in the next three years and leave Bledsoe in the dust.

 

[twslam07]

Do you remember Bledsoe when he first came into the league? I don't see any resemblance of 21 year old Fox to a 21 year old Bledsoe other than they played pretty good defense. Bledsoe wasn't close to being the dynamic difference maker of Fox. He was just a guy out on the floor. From age 21 (his first year) to age 23 he was making on average 6.7 to 8.5 points per game with around 3 assists a game. He took a big jump up when he was age 24 to 17.7 pts and 5.5 assists per game. I'm looking for Fox to take it to another level in the next three years and leave Bledsoe in the dust.

I don’t think you’re interpreting what I’m saying correctly. I’m not comparing Fox to Bledsoe’s year by year career (as you seem to be explaining to me in your post). I’m comparing the way they both play right now. I even said in my earlier post that Fox is not limited to the ceiling that would be a Bledsoe level player. I’m just assessing how he plays/performs now to another player.

At the end of the day, if he doesn’t improve in some of the areas I identitied, he’ll be limited on how far he can carry a team as a top option. Im not saying he can’t improve. I’m just assessing the player he is right now.

 

[Sac.Kings]

I don’t think you’re interpreting what I’m saying correctly. I’m not comparing Fox to Bledsoe’s year by year career (as you seem to be explaining to me in your post). I’m comparing the way they both play right now. I even said in my earlier post that Fox is not limited to the ceiling that would be a Bledsoe level player. I’m just assessing how he plays/performs now to another player.

At the end of the day, if he doesn’t improve in some of the areas I identitied, he’ll be limited on how far he can carry a team as a top option. Im not saying he can’t improve. I’m just assessing the player he is right now.

I am in agreement with you. He seems reluctant some games and focused in others. Just look at the Atlanta game last year when he dominated the Hawks with a crazy triple double. He was doing step back threes and yet now he doesn’t really even want to shoot the three. He’s getting killed with a lot of no calls but your entire offense can’t be drive to the hoop. Look what happened to Tyreke, he became way less effective when teams realized he couldn’t shoot.
He needs to focus more on improving his offense away from the basket. He’s way too inconsistent. As of this moment he’s the same player he was last year and that’s a bit of a worry with such a young player. His shot needs work. I’m also one of those guys that feels that all players should be able to hit 75% or better from the free throw line. Those should be easy. He goes 1-2 way too many times for my liking. He doesn’t seem to settle down for free throws. Just chucks them up.

 

[Kingster]

What made you think I was going off of just 9 games?

2016-17
He shot 24.6% from the college 3 on 69 3PA
He shot 73.6% from the free throw line on 212 FTA

2017-18
He shot 30.7% from the 3 on 153 3PA
He shot 35.0% from 16ft-3PT
He shot 72.3% from the free throw line on 195 FTA

2018-19
He shot 37.1% from the 3 on 232 3PA
He shot 37.3% from 16ft-3PT
He shot 72.7% from the free throw line on 417 FTA

2019-20
He shot 33.3% from the 3 on 30 3PA
He shot 25.0% from 16ft-3PT
He shot 71.0% from the free throw line on 62 FTA


His FT% has been flat & his midrange % has never been above 40%. This is what I'm looking at when I make that determination. If his shot got better, why aren't we also seeing the increase in something like FT%? FT% is usually a good predictor of 3PT%. Not many people who shoot 71-72% (or lower) from the line tend to shoot 37% (or higher) from three. Not to mention his 3PT% has been from 24.6%-30.7% for two of the last three years, and he's sitting at 33% in his fourth year so far.

Look I'm not saying he can't be a good 3PT shooter. I'm just saying we shouldn't be counting our chickens before they hatch.

"I'm starting to think his 3PT% was an anomaly last year or that he can't maintain that high of a % if he increases the volume of his 3PA."

 

[twslam07]

"I'm starting to think his 3PT% was an anomaly last year or that he can't maintain that high of a % if he increases the volume of his 3PA."

I guess the issue was interpreting "starting to think" as I'm only looking at a 9 game sample. When it really meant that I came to that conclusion after diving deeper into his shooting stats across the years.

 

[DesertFox]

If I had to bet on Fox having a career 3pt% over or under 37, I would take the under. That doesn't mean he won't improve or be a bad outside shooter. He just won't end up with a Rondo inflated percentage from players leaving him wide open, so his percentages may not improve much.

If his volume increases, a consistent 35%+ shooter with 5+ attempts is very dangerous and enough to affect defenses. James Harden is useful with his lower percentages. And as for mid range shots, even the best shooters like Durant are 45% from that range. Fox developing there is just a bonus, as you have to really be elite to make them worth passing up a 3.

 

[Kingster]

I don’t think you’re interpreting what I’m saying correctly. I’m not comparing Fox to Bledsoe’s year by year career (as you seem to be explaining to me in your post). I’m comparing the way they both play right now. I even said in my earlier post that Fox is not limited to the ceiling that would be a Bledsoe level player. I’m just assessing how he plays/performs now to another player.

At the end of the day, if he doesn’t improve in some of the areas I identitied, he’ll be limited on how far he can carry a team as a top option. Im not saying he can’t improve. I’m just assessing the player he is right now.

The comparison is ill advised. Comparing a very young player to a very mature player is an apples to oranges comparison.

If if if. If the Greak Freak gets badly injured tomorrow he'll never be in the running for a top 10 NBA player of all time. The more apt question is this: How many 21 year old point guards with Fox's athleticism and current stats don't improve markedly from their 21 year old performance?

 

[twslam07]

The comparison is ill advised. Comparing a very young player to a very mature player is an apples to oranges comparison.

If if if. If the Greak Freak gets badly injured tomorrow he'll never be in the running for a top 10 NBA player of all time. The more apt question is this: How many 21 year old point guards with Fox's athleticism and current stats don't improve markedly from their 21 year old performance?

The question above was not "will Fox improve his perimeter game?" The question was "how should Fox improve his perimeter game." My answer was that he essentially needs to improve his shooting everywhere.

And no comparing two players performance and effectiveness today is not an apples to oranges comparison. It is if you think the point of this thread is "will Fox become better than Bledsoe" but that's not the point of the thread. Fox needs to improve his shot; otherwise, his ceiling will be limited. I don't think that's something you would disagree with but yet here we are debating...something?

 

[Kingster]

The question above was not "will Fox improve his perimeter game?" The question was "how should Fox improve his perimeter game." My answer was that he essentially needs to improve his shooting everywhere.

And no comparing two players performance and effectiveness today is not an apples to oranges comparison. It is if you think the point of this thread is "will Fox become better than Bledsoe" but that's not the point of the thread.Fox needs to improve his shot; otherwise, his ceiling will be limited. I don't think that's something you would disagree with but yet here we are debating...something?

I think that is self-evident, don't you? Do we need data to support that proposition?

 

[twslam07]

I think that is self-evident, don't you? Do we need data to support that proposition?

I prefer to bring data to a conversation to prove a point, yes.

One of the options was “his midrange jumper is deadly” so it makes me think there are people on this board that already think his midrange jumper is deadly. What I showed from a data perspective says otherwise. His 3PT percentage last year was promising but presenting the data I did allowed me to communicate that skepticism and why I still think he has a fair amount to still work on in regards to his 3PT shot.

 

[Kingster]

I prefer to bring data to a conversation to prove a point, yes.

One of the options was “his midrange jumper is deadly” so it makes me think there are people on this board that already think his midrange jumper is deadly. What I showed from a data perspective says otherwise. His 3PT percentage last year was promising but presenting the data I did allowed me to communicate that skepticism and why I still think he has a fair amount to still work on in regards to his 3PT shot.

Ok. I get it. Thanks.