Current Kings' Offense

#1
The Kings came out this year with a new look and started pushing the ball after a defensive rebound, out of bounds play or even on made baskets. We used our youth to run some teams into the ground. We shot the 3 ball well and got plenty of fastbreak layups. We scored 125 routinely and sometimes over 140.

Now we are not sneaking up on anyone. The Kings' are playing better defense, but having trouble getting much more than 100 points in the last 10 games. Sometimes they are in the 90s. Our shooting percentages are down. We get fewer points in the paint, and we are not winning the fast break battle like before. We turn the ball over more now.

We out rebounded some teams at the beginning of the year, but usually can't do that now.
Besides teams figuring out how to play better defense agains the Kings' style, what do you think the reasons are for such a drop in point production per game?
 
#2
I wonder if we may have run ourselves into the ground.
Bogs has not been as good as last year and Fox seems hurt or just not able to maintain the attack all game.
WCS cant make a jumper. Bjelica production nose dived. Shumpert not shooting as well.
Teams have some good examples how to defend for us. Blanket Hield, defend the lob. Try to get Fox to shoot outside 5 feet. Attack the ball aka Phx when it goes into high post.
Get back on D. Attack the offensive glass. Attack the rim.
Think we have many weaknesses that have been exposed and the blueprint on how to beat us is well written. We haven't learned how to adjust yet. Growing pains.
 
#3
It is a good question. When we don't get "mega games" from Buddy or Fox, which is not going to happen every game simply due to physical and mental fatigue and the attention they receive, we need secondary guys to pick up the slack. Early in the season we were getting that more often with Bjelica and Shump. It would help if Willie had a go-to post move or a face up shot. He doesn't. It would help if Jackson can go into the zone like the did against the Warriors. That game was the anomaly, the one you tell your grandchildren about, the last five games are more of the norm aligned with his actual talent. Yogi has been good lately as a scorer but his usage is relatively low.

If we had secondary guys more capable then teams could not key in on Fox and Buddy as much as they do. Then we become more more potent and unpredictable and Fox and Buddy do not have to work as hard. There is also something important that has hurt our offense. Bogs should be getting us 18 PPG instead of 15 PPG. He's better than he has played. I think he was banged up earlier but I think it is more now. He has the responsibility of running the PG which he has done well but it has hindered his own offense. He has to balance getting others involved and getting his own. He was 56% TS% last year and only 54% this year. By contrast Buddy is 60% TS%. I would expect Bogs would be closer to 58% TS%. I think he can get there if we take the burden off him to play PG so much by inserting him as a starter over Shump.

Yogurt is reluctant to make this change understandably because he does not trust Yogi or Mason as the backup PG. If we can work a trade for Lin I can see our offense pick up again like it was, maybe better than ever!
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#4
Part of the reason they don't get explosive games also is because that's just not the design of Joergers offensive scheme. There are plays where someone like Buddy will hit 3 in a row and then not see the ball for the next 10 minutes. I'll chalk it up to testing things out since the team is still new but at some point they have to look to what works and move on. The Kings are a guard oriented team and something as simple as using a big to little handoff set vs. pick and roll can eat away at your PPG totals. Another thing to realize is that the Kings aren't a true running team. They do play a lot of their offensive the half court and many times you'll see them not even run a pick and roll until 8 seconds are left on the clock. They also tend to put the ball in the post late in the clock with only time for one look at the rim. If they are getting tired it's because of a lot of senseless route running and off ball screening. Not because they are going from basket to the other. The Kings are more of a burst team. Buddy, Fox, or Bogdan, or Jackson, or Shump, or Bjelica, etc. will go on runs and it skews the identity a little. This team would be better served to look at getting shots earlier in the clock rather than moving bodies and starting the play with less than 10 on the clock. Too many first option is the only option sets is what's hurting them right now.
 
#5
I've been trying to figure this out also. Is it tired legs? Defensive adjustments? Or.....by design? I feel like I keep hearing coach yell "push it push it" whenever we get the ball, but it does feel like we're starting to see more half court sets with center touching in the high post. This was the disaster set that made me want to vomit in the preseason when Fox was out of the game. I also remember Joerger commenting early in the season that they plan to really push the ball because they only have a small amount of their offensive playbook installed and playing with pace was their only advantage. Could it be that the coaching staff's vision is a much more traditionally balanced team that pushes with pace but excels in the half court team. Are they purposely looking to expand the playbook throughout the season and we're now sort of stalling out ? This is still first and foremost a season for growth with a young team, so wouldn't surprise me if this was part of the plan and the rough patch isn't totally unexpected on their part.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#6
Kings offense has come down to Earth, they had fresh legs to start the season so their run and gun pace won them a lot of games. Now that a lot of teams are adjusting and slowing it down a bit, the Kings struggle to score on a consistent basis when Fox and Hield aren't providing offense. Shump, Bjelica, Jackson are all streaky and you don't know if you they will make or brick their shots come game time. The Kings need to start working on their half court offense and build on that moving forward for sustained success.
 
#7
Oh have we arrived at the point in the season where it's all the coaches fault? :)

I think you mostly covered it in your first post ppine. The Kings were ranked dead last in pace last season and they're currently ranked #2 this season. No matter how much a team says they're going to run, until you actually see that in person it's probably hard to game plan for it. At this point in the year though the scouting reports have adjusted. They know where the shots are coming from and who to key in on and they know what our sets look like once the secondary break isn't successful. Also, Bjelica, Shumpert, and Fox started out the season making everything -- that was never going to last. Early in the season we got a nice glimpse of what this offense looks like though when everything is clicking. We were able to jump on people and keep them on their heels. Now we just need to build toward being able to do that consistently.

It's not going to happen overnight and it probably involves bringing in a couple more pieces. Relying on Fox, Hield, and Bogdanovic to carry the load every game is impractical. We need at least one of the big guys to be a major contributor every night, it doesn't always have to be the same guy though. And it would be nice to find a wing who can shoot the ball and defend like "SuperSaiyan Shumpert" was for that first part of the season. Have patience though! A team this young playing .500 ball is nothing to sniff at! I saw a lot of shots bounce off the rim in that Clippers game that usually go down and that is a tough veteran team who is not to be underestimated. I'm sure the grind of the season is a factor as well but we have a break coming up next month. I think they'll be ready to finish the season strong.
 
#8
Bjelica who was our leader in almost all the advanced metrics for most the season started off shooting 50% from the field and 44% from 3.

The last 11 games he's shooting 36% from the field and 32% from 3.

Shumpert started out 43% from the field and 41% from 3.

He's played in 11 of the Kings last 15 games and is shooting 27% from the field and 25% from 3.

Not even accounting for Fox's recent inconsistency....those two guys alone are a huge reason why the Kings are struggling to crack 100 points lately.
 
#9
Our half court offense has been more or less ineffective whole year. At the beginning of the season it was compensated by our succes of running the ball and some unsustainable shooting from Bjelica, Shump and Fox for example.

On offense we generate way too many inefficent shots and not enough efficent shots. We are below league average on attempted three pointers while shooting a very good percentage, we have 4th most shot attempts in the floater range (which are in general very low efficency shots) while shooting 38% on them and we are 9th in shot attempts from mid range. We also are 27th in FT's attempted per offensive play and we are about average on shot attempts in the restricted area.

We attempt 17 shots from floater range per game and 15,9 mid rangers per game. Thats 33 shot attempts that are basically worth 25 points, under 0,8 points per shot. Thats not good and one reason this offense is struggling.

On the other hand we shoot 30.1 threes a game on 38,3%. Thats 34,6 points per 30 shots making it a 1,15 points per shot. We attempt 21,7 free throws per game while making 70,9%. Thats very bad percentage but it still means over 1,4 points per two free throws. On the restricted area we are attempting 29,7 shots while shooting 63,5% on them. That means 37,7 points per 29,7 shots meaning 1,27 points per shots.

Obviously we need to generate more threes, free throws and shots from the restricted area (most of the time meaning open layups and dunks) while shooting less from the floater and mid range. Whats the reason for this non ideal shot selection? Some of it is coaching and scheme and some of it is personnel. We run relatively lot of plays that involves ball being in the high post in the hands of our center. Imo Joeger should probably script more plays that lead to those more efficent shot attemps while simultaniously encouraging to shoot more threes and discouraging from shooting mid rangers and floaters.

Its also not easy to just simply decide that we are going to take more efficent shots. Someone still has to create those shots, otherwise they arent available. This is probably an area where it shows that we lack efficent offensive ball handling creators. Fox has been good but also has his inconsistencies and shouldnt be asked to do it alone. Bogdanovic is not quite on that level as a creator and bigs usually only create offense for themselves. This is an area that should be looked at in the free agency. Even if its an offensive specialist like Lue Williams, you need that other guy to help your main creator and to lead the second unit.
 
#10
Our half court offense has been more or less ineffective whole year. At the beginning of the season it was compensated by our succes of running the ball and some unsustainable shooting from Bjelica, Shump and Fox for example.

On offense we generate way too many inefficent shots and not enough efficent shots. We are below league average on attempted three pointers while shooting a very good percentage, we have 4th most shot attempts in the floater range (which are in general very low efficency shots) while shooting 38% on them and we are 9th in shot attempts from mid range. We also are 27th in FT's attempted per offensive play and we are about average on shot attempts in the restricted area.

We attempt 17 shots from floater range per game and 15,9 mid rangers per game. Thats 33 shot attempts that are basically worth 25 points, under 0,8 points per shot. Thats not good and one reason this offense is struggling.

On the other hand we shoot 30.1 threes a game on 38,3%. Thats 34,6 points per 30 shots making it a 1,15 points per shot. We attempt 21,7 free throws per game while making 70,9%. Thats very bad percentage but it still means over 1,4 points per two free throws. On the restricted area we are attempting 29,7 shots while shooting 63,5% on them. That means 37,7 points per 29,7 shots meaning 1,27 points per shots.

Obviously we need to generate more threes, free throws and shots from the restricted area (most of the time meaning open layups and dunks) while shooting less from the floater and mid range. Whats the reason for this non ideal shot selection? Some of it is coaching and scheme and some of it is personnel. We run relatively lot of plays that involves ball being in the high post in the hands of our center. Imo Joeger should probably script more plays that lead to those more efficent shot attemps while simultaniously encouraging to shoot more threes and discouraging from shooting mid rangers and floaters.

Its also not easy to just simply decide that we are going to take more efficent shots. Someone still has to create those shots, otherwise they arent available. This is probably an area where it shows that we lack efficent offensive ball handling creators. Fox has been good but also has his inconsistencies and shouldnt be asked to do it alone. Bogdanovic is not quite on that level as a creator and bigs usually only create offense for themselves. This is an area that should be looked at in the free agency. Even if its an offensive specialist like Lue Williams, you need that other guy to help your main creator and to lead the second unit.
Really good post. Whether I agree with it all or not, what you did as a stats guy was extremely important and credible. You suggested how to address the inefficiencies without throwing away or benching talented players. You got into the actual coaching aspect.
 
#11
Our half court offense has been more or less ineffective whole year. At the beginning of the season it was compensated by our succes of running the ball and some unsustainable shooting from Bjelica, Shump and Fox for example.

On offense we generate way too many inefficent shots and not enough efficent shots. We are below league average on attempted three pointers while shooting a very good percentage, we have 4th most shot attempts in the floater range (which are in general very low efficency shots) while shooting 38% on them and we are 9th in shot attempts from mid range. We also are 27th in FT's attempted per offensive play and we are about average on shot attempts in the restricted area.

We attempt 17 shots from floater range per game and 15,9 mid rangers per game. Thats 33 shot attempts that are basically worth 25 points, under 0,8 points per shot. Thats not good and one reason this offense is struggling.

On the other hand we shoot 30.1 threes a game on 38,3%. Thats 34,6 points per 30 shots making it a 1,15 points per shot. We attempt 21,7 free throws per game while making 70,9%. Thats very bad percentage but it still means over 1,4 points per two free throws. On the restricted area we are attempting 29,7 shots while shooting 63,5% on them. That means 37,7 points per 29,7 shots meaning 1,27 points per shots.

Obviously we need to generate more threes, free throws and shots from the restricted area (most of the time meaning open layups and dunks) while shooting less from the floater and mid range. Whats the reason for this non ideal shot selection? Some of it is coaching and scheme and some of it is personnel. We run relatively lot of plays that involves ball being in the high post in the hands of our center. Imo Joeger should probably script more plays that lead to those more efficent shot attemps while simultaniously encouraging to shoot more threes and discouraging from shooting mid rangers and floaters.

Its also not easy to just simply decide that we are going to take more efficent shots. Someone still has to create those shots, otherwise they arent available. This is probably an area where it shows that we lack efficent offensive ball handling creators. Fox has been good but also has his inconsistencies and shouldnt be asked to do it alone. Bogdanovic is not quite on that level as a creator and bigs usually only create offense for themselves. This is an area that should be looked at in the free agency. Even if its an offensive specialist like Lue Williams, you need that other guy to help your main creator and to lead the second unit.
Great post! I think half court scheme of playing through the center in the high post is causing a lot of problems. Willie just doesn’t have the playmaking skill set and Harry tries to do too much at this point in his career. It feels like a lot of times the only thing accomplished with the set is to run 10 seconds off the clock with a guard then getting the ball back at the top of the key for some heroball.
 
#12
The Kings got 127 against the Spurs at home. We had a big advantage in fast break points, points off turns, points in the paint and points from the bench. It suggests that we are not that successful in the half court, but have the potential to dominate in other categories to make up for it.

The Kings offense seems to have a lot of rhythm when things are going well and can make some big runs on people. They finish much better than they did at the beginning of the year.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#14
Our half court offense has been more or less ineffective whole year. At the beginning of the season it was compensated by our succes of running the ball and some unsustainable shooting from Bjelica, Shump and Fox for example.

On offense we generate way too many inefficent shots and not enough efficent shots. We are below league average on attempted three pointers while shooting a very good percentage, we have 4th most shot attempts in the floater range (which are in general very low efficency shots) while shooting 38% on them and we are 9th in shot attempts from mid range. We also are 27th in FT's attempted per offensive play and we are about average on shot attempts in the restricted area.

We attempt 17 shots from floater range per game and 15,9 mid rangers per game. Thats 33 shot attempts that are basically worth 25 points, under 0,8 points per shot. Thats not good and one reason this offense is struggling.

On the other hand we shoot 30.1 threes a game on 38,3%. Thats 34,6 points per 30 shots making it a 1,15 points per shot. We attempt 21,7 free throws per game while making 70,9%. Thats very bad percentage but it still means over 1,4 points per two free throws. On the restricted area we are attempting 29,7 shots while shooting 63,5% on them. That means 37,7 points per 29,7 shots meaning 1,27 points per shots.

Obviously we need to generate more threes, free throws and shots from the restricted area (most of the time meaning open layups and dunks) while shooting less from the floater and mid range. Whats the reason for this non ideal shot selection? Some of it is coaching and scheme and some of it is personnel. We run relatively lot of plays that involves ball being in the high post in the hands of our center. Imo Joeger should probably script more plays that lead to those more efficent shot attemps while simultaniously encouraging to shoot more threes and discouraging from shooting mid rangers and floaters.

Its also not easy to just simply decide that we are going to take more efficent shots. Someone still has to create those shots, otherwise they arent available. This is probably an area where it shows that we lack efficent offensive ball handling creators. Fox has been good but also has his inconsistencies and shouldnt be asked to do it alone. Bogdanovic is not quite on that level as a creator and bigs usually only create offense for themselves. This is an area that should be looked at in the free agency. Even if its an offensive specialist like Lue Williams, you need that other guy to help your main creator and to lead the second unit.
Not to nic pic, but there's just a bit of a contradiction in one of your statements. You say that the Kings are shooting a very good percentage from the three pt line, but at the same time you say the Kings are taking too many inefficient shots. To my mind, the reason the Kings are shooting a good percentage from the 3 pt line, is because they're taking higher percentage shots, and that's also why their 3 pt shot attempts are below the league average.

Orlando for instance takes a ton of 3 pt shots, but they shoot a much lower percentage than the Kings because they take a lot of contested three's. There's a fine line between what's the right amount and what's not, and I don't know what that amount is. Personally, I think the Kings current problem is a combination of things. Tired legs along with the league making adjustments to what the Kings are doing. You also have a couple/three players that seem to be in a bit of a slump at the same time. It's a young team, and I think they'll bounce back. The rest at the all star break could be a shot in the arm for the team.
 
#16
Not to nic pic, but there's just a bit of a contradiction in one of your statements. You say that the Kings are shooting a very good percentage from the three pt line, but at the same time you say the Kings are taking too many inefficient shots. To my mind, the reason the Kings are shooting a good percentage from the 3 pt line, is because they're taking higher percentage shots, and that's also why their 3 pt shot attempts are below the league average.

Orlando for instance takes a ton of 3 pt shots, but they shoot a much lower percentage than the Kings because they take a lot of contested three's. There's a fine line between what's the right amount and what's not, and I don't know what that amount is. Personally, I think the Kings current problem is a combination of things. Tired legs along with the league making adjustments to what the Kings are doing. You also have a couple/three players that seem to be in a bit of a slump at the same time. It's a young team, and I think they'll bounce back. The rest at the all star break could be a shot in the arm for the team.
Yes thats true it obviously must be one of the reasons for why our percentage is so high. But, even with Orlandos percentage (34,8%) a three pointer is still a lot better than mid ranger or floater at 38-39% (Kings percentage on that range). 1,044 points per shot (3pointer) >> 0,77 points per shot (floaters and mid rangers). In general you need to be an absolutely elite mid range shooter if you want to be efficent on that range, at least compared to shooting threes. Imo for the Kings its not a fine line, its actually pretty clear.
 
#17
I have no problem with certain players taking a 3 pointer and really most of them.
What I want to see is more of them taking that shot when they are open. I see so many of them shot as a desperate attempt at the end of the shot clock and with better ball movement that the late desperate 3 % should improve.

I know Bagley has confidence in his shooting but I find that taking 3 or 4 attempts a game at this point in his career may be better served by trying to drive which should do wonders by either he scores, gets fouled and by forcing the double team can pass out to the open teammate who has a higher 3% number.
He is a good shooter and those 3’s are going to be money for him down the line. I find it amazing that he was 1 for 4 and we say why did he do that and they looked good and if only 1 more went in we would be saying he’s got a great shot from 3.
 
#18
Yes thats true it obviously must be one of the reasons for why our percentage is so high. But, even with Orlandos percentage (34,8%) a three pointer is still a lot better than mid ranger or floater at 38-39% (Kings percentage on that range). 1,044 points per shot (3pointer) >> 0,77 points per shot (floaters and mid rangers). In general you need to be an absolutely elite mid range shooter if you want to be efficent on that range, at least compared to shooting threes. Imo for the Kings its not a fine line, its actually pretty clear.
It really comes down to WHO is taking the shot as opposed to whether or not it is a 2 or 3. For instance, Shumpert has been awful from the mid range this season. He should either take a 3 or go to the basket. Hield has been deadly from pretty much anywhere on the court. If he is open, I am comfortable with him taking the shot. Sometimes it is just having the wrong players take too many shots from the wrong spots. Of course, that is what opposing defenses want.
 
#19
It really comes down to WHO is taking the shot as opposed to whether or not it is a 2 or 3. For instance, Shumpert has been awful from the mid range this season. He should either take a 3 or go to the basket. Hield has been deadly from pretty much anywhere on the court. If he is open, I am comfortable with him taking the shot. Sometimes it is just having the wrong players take too many shots from the wrong spots. Of course, that is what opposing defenses want.
Buddy can shoot from wherever he wants when he is open but I hope that those shots are schemed in a way that if its a jump shot, then most of them would be threes.


As a team we shoot 17 shots a game from floater range and 16 from mid range and the percentages for those shots are 38-39% for us. Thats 33 shots a game with 0,77 points per shot so I would say the amount of those shots is way too high. I think it would be beneficial for the team to encourage for more threes and layups/dunks as a whole and scheme more for those shots. In general, unless you shoot ~50% from mid range, you should favor shooting a three, driving to the basket or passing to another teammate.
 
#20
Buddy can shoot from wherever he wants when he is open but I hope that those shots are schemed in a way that if its a jump shot, then most of them would be threes.


As a team we shoot 17 shots a game from floater range and 16 from mid range and the percentages for those shots are 38-39% for us. Thats 33 shots a game with 0,77 points per shot so I would say the amount of those shots is way too high. I think it would be beneficial for the team to encourage for more threes and layups/dunks as a whole and scheme more for those shots. In general, unless you shoot ~50% from mid range, you should favor shooting a three, driving to the basket or passing to another teammate.
I don't like looking at a team's numbers as a whole. It can be misleading. Once again, who is taking those shots?
 
#23
I don't like looking at a team's numbers as a whole. It can be misleading. Once again, who is taking those shots?
Well to me the teams numbers say that as a team we take way too many shots that give us 0,77 points per shot.

If we want to look at player specific percentages from floater range and mid range:

Bogdan 43,9 - 41,1%
Buddy 34,2% - 43,8%
Fox 37,9% - 37,9%
Giles 43,4% - 37,8%
Shump 18,2% - 31,1%
Jackson 43,6% - 39,5%
Bagley 43,7% - 38,7%
Bjelica 41,9 - 29,4%
(Barnes 26,0% - 30,3% with relatively high volume..)

None of these players shoot those shots as effectively as 1 point per shot (aka for example a three pointer at 33% rate) and its not even that close. Based on team specific and player specific numbers I think its fair to say that in general we should encourage for more threes and layups/dunks and and also discourage the team from taking mid rangers and floaters.