2019 Playoff Race--It's the Kings Division Record

#1
See here: 2/12/19 Playoff Race Data

Focus on the Kings -27.5% relative to the division average.

It's looking like the key to the Kings season is their ability to improve their division record. Looks pretty dire relative to the division record of the LA teams. The scope is obviously larger than this, but it's one data point.

Iteration #1. Going to add more layers going forward.
 
#2
See here: 2/12/19 Playoff Race Data

Focus on the Kings -27.5% relative to the division average.

It's looking like the key to the Kings season is their ability to improve their division record. Looks pretty dire relative to the division record of the LA teams. The scope is obviously larger than this, but it's one data point.

Iteration #1. Going to add more layers going forward.
Division records only matter if we end up tied with someone in our division or am I missing something here?
 
#4
Well, yes and no. Essentially, beating teams in our division pushes them down as well as pulling us up. Beating the Clippers has a greater value than the Bucks, for example. But from a pure record standpoint, yes, wins are wins.
Division records is the low hanging fruit. There’s going to be other overlays—both quantitative n qualitative.

But as it relates to this iteration, based on the Kings records thus far, the marginal difference for the Kings to make the playoffs is to improve their record within their own division. It’s the drag on their overall record thus far n will likely continue to be so barring improvement or teams checking out.

The key number is 12 games thus far. Thats the most played within division amongst the teams. WIl need to project that out to see what we’re looking at.

N going a bit further, its just applying common consulting principles—area under the curve. Best way to improve is to wotk on your weaknesses (like Bags right hand).
 
#5
Division records is the low hanging fruit. There’s going to be other overlays—both quantitative n qualitative.

But as it relates to this iteration, based on the Kings records thus far, the marginal difference for the Kings to make the playoffs is to improve their record within their own division. It’s the drag on their overall record thus far n will likely continue to be so barring improvement or teams checking out.

The key number is 12 games thus far. Thats the most played within division amongst the teams. WIl need to project that out to see what we’re looking at.

N going a bit further, its just applying common consulting principles—area under the curve. Best way to improve is to wotk on your weaknesses (like Bags right hand).
Unless I'm counting wrong, they only have 4 games left in the season against teams in their division. The ship has sailed with respect to their poor divisional record. If we end up in a tie for the 8th seed, then that could very well come into play, but I'm not sure there's much they can do about that at this point.
 
#7
I feel at this point in the season it’s going to be important to win the games we are supposed to win.
After that they need some wins like the nuggets or Boston for just a example.

Also any games against the teams immediately in front or behind becomes more important.
If we take care business and gain those full games in the standings against our rivals for the postseason we will make it.
 
#8
Unless I'm counting wrong, they only have 4 games left in the season against teams in their division. The ship has sailed with respect to their poor divisional record. If we end up in a tie for the 8th seed, then that could very well come into play, but I'm not sure there's much they can do about that at this point.
Yea, if there’s only 4 games remaining, to bring them up to league average, that’s a win capture of only one game.

There’s other areas to drill into, including the number of games remaining for Portland n another team above the Kings (Spurs?), who have done poorly within division. They underperform n the margin squeezes down in the Kings favor.

It’s iteration #1, so let’s see where this goes. I’ll do the projections, time permitting, in the next day or so.
 
#9
See here: 2/12/19 Playoff Race Data

Focus on the Kings -27.5% relative to the division average.

It's looking like the key to the Kings season is their ability to improve their division record. Looks pretty dire relative to the division record of the LA teams. The scope is obviously larger than this, but it's one data point.

Iteration #1. Going to add more layers going forward.
Look at the number of in division back to backs we have played. I know of 4 games off the top of my head. 3 Lakers and 1 Suns. That and the fact we can’t beat Golden State at their own game is a big reason.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#12
Kings have three wins in their division and two of those are against an eleven win team....yet they are in the Playoff hunt. What is the purpose of this thread?
 
#13
Kings have three wins in their division and two of those are against an eleven win team....yet they are in the Playoff hunt. What is the purpose of this thread?
The purpose is to see if there's any areas for improvement and if there are any drags on the record--the division win percentage is a drag. It's iteration 1 and represents 15% of their remaining games.

As of today, the Kings have 26 games remaining. They have 4 games remaining in division, 3 back to back games, two of which are on the road, and play 9 games against the east.

If they're percentages remain constant, of the 4 games against division foes, they'll win 1 (likely losing the 3/24/19 SEGABABA against the Lakers). They currently have like a 70% win rate against the east (I need to double check that number), so they'll win 6 of the games against the east.

That leaves about 13 games remaining for the Kings to win roughly about 7 games. Coincidentally, of those 13 games, 7 are at home.

They do the above and they're at 45 wins and almost a certain lock to make the playoffs. They improve by 1 game in division and the margin for error gets much wider.
 
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#14
The purpose is to see if there's any areas for improvement and if there are any drags on the record--the division win percentage is a drag. It's iteration 1 and represents 15% of their remaining games.

As of today, the Kings have 26 games remaining. They have 4 games remaining in division, 3 back to back games, two of which are on the road, and play 9 games against the east.

If they're percentages remain constant, of the 4 games against division foes, they'll win 1 (likely losing the 3/24/19 SEGABABA against the Lakers). They currently have like a 70% win rate against the east (I need to double check that number), so they'll win 6 of the games against the east.

That leaves about 13 games remaining for the Kings to win roughly about 7 games. Coincidentally, of those 13 games, 7 are at home.

They do the above and they're at 45 wins and almost a certain lock to make the playoffs. They improve by 1 game in division and the margin for era gets much wider.
As is, the two games that might decide the season are:

1. The 3/01/19 LAC home game. This is the one division game that the Kings need to win to outpace their division record (I have them losing to GSW on 2/21/19, winning against Phx on 3/23/19, and losing to the LAL on 3/24/19--SEGBABA).

2. The 4/05/19 Utah home game. Last SEGABABA. Kings have done horrible on SEGABABA's and need to win at least one--this one is a must get.
 
#15
This Skeleton Crew Grizzlies team is fun. You got Bruno Cabocolo blocking people left and right, Avery Bradley turning into Buddy Hield and Joakim Noah turning back the clock. Let's see if they can hold this up and do the Kings a favor.
 
#16
Its not looking so good (playoff-wise); the schedule is just a bit too much, and the guys a bit too green together. Its been a successful year, regardless of the playoffs and things are looking up. It would be excellent to slip into the playoffs for the experience, but it doesn't quite look in the cards. Re-sign Cauley-Stein while letting Koufos go. Look into extensions possibly for core players for better value (Hield, Fox). As was noted by NME in the other thread, making the playoffs would mean the Kings succeed in beating teams ahead them. That is principally now in this 6-game stretch. They have only a half a dozen cushion of losses to when their playoff chances go to razor thin meaning they'd need to rattle off 10 in a row.. The team needs work on defense, rebounding, and free throws maybe in that order too. regardless of playoffs.
 
#18
The way to look at this is "can we out-perform both LA teams in the remaining 25 games?" Strength of schedule is meaningful, but the fact that our two LA competitors are garbage in combination with us actually being a good team I think bodes very well for us.
 
#19
The way to look at this is "can we out-perform both LA teams in the remaining 25 games?" Strength of schedule is meaningful, but the fact that our two LA competitors are garbage in combination with us actually being a good team I think bodes very well for us.
I would never count out a LeBron lead team. I'm hoping both LA teams do bad but also hoping another playoff team slides out of the race
 
#26
Yea, generally, they all are.

But my definition of must win games are games that outpace expected outcome given the other contexts (@ home, first game of a b2b...).
Yeah well Minne is favored and it’s marked as a win on your chart. So by your definition isn’t that a must win.
 
#27
Yeah well Minne is favored and it’s marked as a win on your chart. So by your definition isn’t that a must win.

Tonight’s game falls under expected outcome.

Must win games go against trend (clippers) n are games that can lead to n maintain the margin for error bcz they’re the first of a b2b (again, trend—kings suck on the 2nd game of a b2b)—the lakers game, for example, is in all other instances a win if it was not the second game of b2b. Kings win the game before n the Lakers game becomes a potential +1 in the outcome. They lose the game prior and the Lakers game becomes do or die.
 
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#28
3.4.19 update.

I have the Kings playing .650 ball the rest of the way, which would lead to a 44 - 38 record. If the Kings maintain their current pace and play .500 ball, they end up at 41 - 41.

-1 in the outcome column over the last three.

See here: .650 Ball = 44 - 38
 
#29
3.4.19 update.

I have the Kings playing .650 ball the rest of the way, which would lead to a 44 - 38 record. If the Kings maintain their current pace and play .500 ball, they end up at 41 - 41.

-1 in the outcome column over the last three.

See here: .650 Ball = 44 - 38
Do you have a projection for the Spurs at this point?
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#30
3.4.19 update.

I have the Kings playing .650 ball the rest of the way, which would lead to a 44 - 38 record. If the Kings maintain their current pace and play .500 ball, they end up at 41 - 41.

-1 in the outcome column over the last three.

See here: .650 Ball = 44 - 38
Interesting. That's what I projected for the Kings' victory total. We'll see if we're right...