I have the Kings at 48 wins, if everyone stays healthy and of course that's always a big if. I think both Fox and Bagley will take another big leap forward, and I think Bog's will be back to his normal self now that he's healthy. I think the surprise player will be Giles, who will take a dramatic leap forward this season. The Kings starting five should be able to compete with any team in the league. The difference this season will be the Kings bench, and it will be a huge difference maker. Giles, Bjelica/Holmes, Ariza, Bog's, Joseph is a solid second unit that matches up well with almost any team in the NBA.
To me the Warriors are the mystery team. I think that if all their main players stay healthy, and Thompson comes back as scheduled, they will find a way to sneak into the playoffs. But they have no depth to fall back on and if Curry or any other important player goes down, I think their chance of making the playoffs is somewhere between slim and none.
I have to wait and see with Portland. They look like a totally different team and I'm not sure different adds up to better. Frankly, I don't see improvement, but hey, I've been wrong before. I think the Spurs will really struggle to sneak into the playoff's this year. They didn't improve the team, other than getting Murray back, who to my mind, is still an unproven player. They need Walker to make a dramatic leap this season. I think Lyles was a nice pickup for them, and he'll help. If I'm the Kings, I try to run them off the floor.
I'm not sure anyone knows how good or bad the Thunder will be. I never discount Paul, but he's not getting any younger. They probably start Paul and Alexander together. But no matter how you look at it, they don't have a lot of fire power on that team, and almost zero depth with experience. I just don't see this team making the playoffs. They have some nice young talent, but most of it is unproven.
So to my mind, there are five teams that I consider, barring dramatic injuries, playoff bound. The Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets, Lakers, and Rockets. I think that leaves 5 teams battling it out for the last three playoff spots. The Kings, Warriors, Trailblazers, Spurs, and Mav's. Of those five, I give the Kings and the Trailblazers the best chance of grabbing one of those spots.
The most interesting team might be the Lakers. Obviously, with both AD and Lebron, they're favorites to make a lot of noise in the West. But if one of them goes down, they have zero depth on that team, and they could go from a favorite, to not making the playoffs in a heartbeat. AD has never played a season without an injury of some sort (he's averaged 66 games a yr for his 7 yr. career), and Lebron isn't getting any younger. He's well over the thousand game mark and into that grey area of a players career where injuries become more the norm than an abberation. Lebron only played in 55 games last season.
The perception seems to be that the west got tougher, but I'm not so sure that's true. I think a couple of individual teams got better, like the Clippers and the Lakers, but did Houston get better trading out Paul for Westbrook? I don't think we know yet. I think Utah and Denver got a bit better, but they were already good teams that were going to make the playoffs. The Warriors and the Thunder got worse. The Mav's might have gotten better, but until we see Porzingis on the floor, we don't know. After you get past Doncic, Porzingis and Hardaway Jr. they have a team made up of bench players. My apologies to Dwight Powell.
I think Portland got a bit worse, but still good enough to make the playoffs. I like the makeup of the Pel's but they have too much inexperienced youth to be a factor in the playoff race. Both the Sun's and Grizz look like tankers to me, although I think the Grizz could surprise some people this season, especially if you go in there and think it's a cake walk. I predict the Kings will grab the 7th spot in the playoff race.
A word to the unwise. Don't put any money on my predictions. Why do you think I'm living in baja?