I need a sales pitch for Lopez
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Look no further than what Brook Lopez did for Giannis’s game.
Giannis took his game to a whole new level with Brook opening up the lane for him to operate. I think Brook Lopez will do the same for both Bagley and Fox. Milwaukee was one of the top teams in terms of pace last year and Brook was fine.
As far as the rebounding, it’s hard to get many offensive boards when the coach has you camped out on the 3 point line all game. He is more valuable as a floor spacer on offense than a rebounder, when we have Bagley gobbling up the boards. He is a solid 3 point threat that will draw the opposing centers out of the lane. And luckily for the Kings, I think Bagley will be more than capable of picking up 10-12+ rebounds a game to make up the difference. Plus, Brook average 2.2 blocks per game.
Being a Northern/Central California kid and having played for Coach Walton, he seems to be the ideal fit for the Kings to me.
Giannis took his game to a whole new level with Brook opening up the lane for him to operate. I think Brook Lopez will do the same for both Bagley and Fox. Milwaukee was one of the top teams in terms of pace last year and Brook was fine.
As far as the rebounding, it’s hard to get many offensive boards when the coach has you camped out on the 3 point line all game. He is more valuable as a floor spacer on offense than a rebounder, when we have Bagley gobbling up the boards. He is a solid 3 point threat that will draw the opposing centers out of the lane. And luckily for the Kings, I think Bagley will be more than capable of picking up 10-12+ rebounds a game to make up the difference. Plus, Brook average 2.2 blocks per game.
Being a Northern/Central California kid and having played for Coach Walton, he seems to be the ideal fit for the Kings to me.
Here's a rundown of the comparison of Cauley-Stein to Lopez from a defensive standpoint:
From a rebounding standpoint, Lopez doesn't collect a lot of rebounds himself but he has a high contested DRB% (meaning a larger majority of his DREBs are challenged and he may leave the easier rebounds to his teammates to grab) and he boxes out very well. You can also see that his team's on/off DREB% is positive (meaning that his team rebounds better on the defensive side of the ball when he is in the game). This stat has been the case for Lopez every season of his career with the exception of the 2010-2011 season. Below are his On/Off DREB%s:
2008 = 4.6%
2009 = 0.5%
2010 = -0.2%
2011 = 0.6%
2012 = 1.5%
2013 = 2.8%
2014 = 2.9%
2015 = 3.9%
2016 = 3.2%
2017 = 1.6%
2018 = 1.7%
He's not a good rebounding big in the traditional sense, but he appears to do the little things that make his team a better rebounding team when he's out on the floor.
From a rebounding standpoint, Lopez doesn't collect a lot of rebounds himself but he has a high contested DRB% (meaning a larger majority of his DREBs are challenged and he may leave the easier rebounds to his teammates to grab) and he boxes out very well. You can also see that his team's on/off DREB% is positive (meaning that his team rebounds better on the defensive side of the ball when he is in the game). This stat has been the case for Lopez every season of his career with the exception of the 2010-2011 season. Below are his On/Off DREB%s:
2008 = 4.6%
2009 = 0.5%
2010 = -0.2%
2011 = 0.6%
2012 = 1.5%
2013 = 2.8%
2014 = 2.9%
2015 = 3.9%
2016 = 3.2%
2017 = 1.6%
2018 = 1.7%
He's not a good rebounding big in the traditional sense, but he appears to do the little things that make his team a better rebounding team when he's out on the floor.
Agreed.
Also, Bjelica averaged 5.8 boards starting at Power Forward last year. Brook averaged 4.9. A mere 0.9 rebound difference.
Bagley should easily replace WCS 8.4 rebounds per game at the other front court position. I would estimate Bagley would average at least 10-12 reb/game next year, since he would be starting. A Bagley/Lopez combo should be able to better the rebounding numbers over last year’s WCS/Bjelica starting combo.
The main advantage of Brook is that he can stretch the floor for both Bagley and Fox, who would be almost unstoppable inside. Bagley would be able to remain at his more natural position of Power Forward, instead of having him be man handled at the center position. This will also help keep Bagley on the floor, instead of constant foul trouble trying to guard bigger centers.
Also, Bjelica averaged 5.8 boards starting at Power Forward last year. Brook averaged 4.9. A mere 0.9 rebound difference.
Bagley should easily replace WCS 8.4 rebounds per game at the other front court position. I would estimate Bagley would average at least 10-12 reb/game next year, since he would be starting. A Bagley/Lopez combo should be able to better the rebounding numbers over last year’s WCS/Bjelica starting combo.
The main advantage of Brook is that he can stretch the floor for both Bagley and Fox, who would be almost unstoppable inside. Bagley would be able to remain at his more natural position of Power Forward, instead of having him be man handled at the center position. This will also help keep Bagley on the floor, instead of constant foul trouble trying to guard bigger centers.
If you want to count his individual rebound stats, sure, but his team is better when he's out there. You may care about individuals, but at the end of the day, it's how the team is improved. Lopez makes his team better on the defensive glass.
See my post above for some statistical evidence. This article is a good one too: https://hoopshabit.com/2018/08/21/milwaukee-bucks-brook-lopez-will-help-defensive-rebounding/
Steven Adams for instance is even lower than Lopez in DREB per36, but he's at the top in on/off DREB% for his team. He does the work down low but lets his guards and wings grab the boards which is usually a better result for teams. It can allow the rebounder to grab the board and immediately dribble up the floor or typically it's in the hands of a better passer who can make a play down the floor. There's more to rebounding than looking at the REB column.
He's actually a very good defender too. Not sure where this is coming from:
Defensive Impact Stats
Playtype Defense
Perimeter Defense
Rim Protection
So in summary...
See my post above for some statistical evidence. This article is a good one too: https://hoopshabit.com/2018/08/21/milwaukee-bucks-brook-lopez-will-help-defensive-rebounding/
Steven Adams for instance is even lower than Lopez in DREB per36, but he's at the top in on/off DREB% for his team. He does the work down low but lets his guards and wings grab the boards which is usually a better result for teams. It can allow the rebounder to grab the board and immediately dribble up the floor or typically it's in the hands of a better passer who can make a play down the floor. There's more to rebounding than looking at the REB column.
He's actually a very good defender too. Not sure where this is coming from:
Defensive Impact Stats
Playtype Defense
Perimeter Defense
Rim Protection
So in summary...
- He's a positive impact on the team's defensive rebounding (more so than Cauley-stein)
- He has great defensive impact stats (RAPM & RPM)
- He's a good iso & post-up defender
- He doesn't have a lot of steals, deflections, but he sure does contest a lot of 3s for a 7 footer (which probably also contributes to his lower rebounding numbers)
- His rim protection is great and he's contesting 2pters all over the place
- He shot 36.5% on 512 3PA (Cauley-Stein shot 50% on 2 3PA)
- He shot 39.7% on 73 Corner 3PA (Cauley-Stein didn't take a Corner 3PA)
- He shot 45.5% from midrange (Cauley-Stein shot 36.9%)
- He shot 84.2% on 133 FTA (Cauley-Stein shot 55.1% on 254 FTA)
- He shot 75% from the restricted area (Cauley-Stein shot 65.9%)
- He had 1.14 PPP in Isolation (Cauley-Stein was 0.56 PPP)
- He had 1.04 PPP on Post-Ups (Cauley-Stein was 0.86 PPP)
- He had 1.25 PPP as a Roll Man in the PnR (Cauley-Stein was 1.15 PPP)
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Brook Lopez career defensive box plus/minus per year:
1.2
0.8
-0.4
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.2
-0.4
0.2
2.9
Absolutely awful defender for his whole career that just so happened to figure it out at age 30.....or maybe he's a product of the Bucks system that's full of lengthy athletic defenders? The Kings team isn't built like that. I can pretty much guarantee that he will fall back to his career norms which are about what Bagley gave us last year.
For comparison, here are Cauley-Stein's numbers:
1.5
0.8
1.7
2.2
If you want to know what elite looks like for further comparison, here is Gobert:
1.8
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.6
5.1
1.2
0.8
-0.4
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.2
-0.4
0.2
2.9
Absolutely awful defender for his whole career that just so happened to figure it out at age 30.....or maybe he's a product of the Bucks system that's full of lengthy athletic defenders? The Kings team isn't built like that. I can pretty much guarantee that he will fall back to his career norms which are about what Bagley gave us last year.
For comparison, here are Cauley-Stein's numbers:
1.5
0.8
1.7
2.2
If you want to know what elite looks like for further comparison, here is Gobert:
1.8
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.6
5.1
I wouldn't say he's absolutely awful nor would I say he figured it out at age 30. I would say the defense was designed with Lopez in mind.
Lopez is one of the slowest players laterally in the league. He had a 12.77 sec lane agility at the 2008 combine. For context, Harry Giles had a 11.08 sec, Barnes was 10.93 sec. Cs coming out this year like Claxton (11.26 sec), Fernando (11.29 sec), Gafford (11.61 sec), Hayes (11.74 sec), & Kabengele (11.21 sec) are much quicker. Plain & simple, Lopez doesn't really have a shot at defending players on the perimeter.
The Bucks accepted that fact and opted for a deep drop on pick & rolls. That is susceptible to good pull-up players (especially good pull-up players from three), but it helped improve the overall effectiveness of their defense and allowed for nothing easy at the rim. The Kings would need to employ a similar concept while relying on Fox & Ferrell to go over the screens and force their man into the midrange area. Now the opposing player has a man behind him (no 3pt shot), and a 260lbs C w/ a massive 9'5" standing reach & 7'5.5" wingspan in front of him to challenge a close shot. We'd have to live with the midrange shot which analytics tell us is a great thing to live with.
When he's off the floor and you have a Giles/Bagley combo, you can probably employ a switching or hedging strategy on the pick & roll considering their athleticism/quickness and lack of elite shot blocking abilities at the rim.
Here's an interesting read on Lopez's defense with the Bucks: https://www.brewhoop.com/2019/1/17/...nse-built-around-brook-lopez-mike-budenholzer
Lopez is one of the slowest players laterally in the league. He had a 12.77 sec lane agility at the 2008 combine. For context, Harry Giles had a 11.08 sec, Barnes was 10.93 sec. Cs coming out this year like Claxton (11.26 sec), Fernando (11.29 sec), Gafford (11.61 sec), Hayes (11.74 sec), & Kabengele (11.21 sec) are much quicker. Plain & simple, Lopez doesn't really have a shot at defending players on the perimeter.
The Bucks accepted that fact and opted for a deep drop on pick & rolls. That is susceptible to good pull-up players (especially good pull-up players from three), but it helped improve the overall effectiveness of their defense and allowed for nothing easy at the rim. The Kings would need to employ a similar concept while relying on Fox & Ferrell to go over the screens and force their man into the midrange area. Now the opposing player has a man behind him (no 3pt shot), and a 260lbs C w/ a massive 9'5" standing reach & 7'5.5" wingspan in front of him to challenge a close shot. We'd have to live with the midrange shot which analytics tell us is a great thing to live with.
When he's off the floor and you have a Giles/Bagley combo, you can probably employ a switching or hedging strategy on the pick & roll considering their athleticism/quickness and lack of elite shot blocking abilities at the rim.
Here's an interesting read on Lopez's defense with the Bucks: https://www.brewhoop.com/2019/1/17/...nse-built-around-brook-lopez-mike-budenholzer
I'm just waiting for the Kings to hire a competent coach that can actually implement a game plan that not only takes advantage of his players strengths and weaknesses, but one that is also updated enough to compete in the 2020 NBA.
I'm having flashbacks to players being sent over to double team a player going 1 on 1 with Chuck Hayes in the post. Rondo seemingly switching onto the opposing teams center every time down the court. Joerger's game plans that seemed to focus on taking away the mid range shot. Still waiting on a coach that can accept the fact that the NBA isn't the way it was back in the good ol' days so adapting is necessary to be successful.
The Kings potentially could get away with Brook Lopez at the 5 but I don't think it would work nearly as well as it did in Milwaukee, even if Budenholzer was coaching this team. We just simply don't have the length, athleticism or IQ at this point to do what they did.
I'm having flashbacks to players being sent over to double team a player going 1 on 1 with Chuck Hayes in the post. Rondo seemingly switching onto the opposing teams center every time down the court. Joerger's game plans that seemed to focus on taking away the mid range shot. Still waiting on a coach that can accept the fact that the NBA isn't the way it was back in the good ol' days so adapting is necessary to be successful.
The Kings potentially could get away with Brook Lopez at the 5 but I don't think it would work nearly as well as it did in Milwaukee, even if Budenholzer was coaching this team. We just simply don't have the length, athleticism or IQ at this point to do what they did.
One area Brook Lopez has impressed me the past couple seasons is 3 point shooting. He even shoots them from 3-4 feet behind the line. Dude has really developed that shot and has above average range for a BIG.
IMO, he can do some of the things defensively with his size and length that we saw Marc Gasol do in the Finals. And that's the ability to switch on a smaller player to contest a deep three.
BTW, I remember several years back the KINGS were really, really high on Lopez while he was still a Brooklyn Net. They tried quite hard to acquire him in trade with no success. I think it would be quite cool (and fitting) if he ended up in SAC now somehow.
IMO, he can do some of the things defensively with his size and length that we saw Marc Gasol do in the Finals. And that's the ability to switch on a smaller player to contest a deep three.
BTW, I remember several years back the KINGS were really, really high on Lopez while he was still a Brooklyn Net. They tried quite hard to acquire him in trade with no success. I think it would be quite cool (and fitting) if he ended up in SAC now somehow.