Mock Draft Kings #2 lists
- Thread starter PurpleHaze
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True, the difference is statistics will tell you most drafts have 2-4 franchise level players in the draft. A franchise level player is defined as at least a 3 time all star.
Drafting 1 is easiest because often picks are no brainers. LeBron, Duncan, Jabbar, Magic Johnson were easy Number 1 picks. This year is a little more challenging because you have a number of players who could be a 3 time all star but no player guaranteed to be one. But at 2 the difference is the 3 time all-star is guaranteed to be available. The question is are able to identify and pick him.
At 7 you are hoping 4 other teams make a mistake. Possible but less likely. At 2, if you fail, it becomes a defining moment in your career.
Drafting 1 is easiest because often picks are no brainers. LeBron, Duncan, Jabbar, Magic Johnson were easy Number 1 picks. This year is a little more challenging because you have a number of players who could be a 3 time all star but no player guaranteed to be one. But at 2 the difference is the 3 time all-star is guaranteed to be available. The question is are able to identify and pick him.
At 7 you are hoping 4 other teams make a mistake. Possible but less likely. At 2, if you fail, it becomes a defining moment in your career.
Horford is a top 3 pick and vastly under rated for all he does. Tatum will be a 3 time all star. Boston’s starting line-up features 3 top-3 picks and we are excited to get our first since 1991.
Yes Boston has two additional all stars sitting on their bench but the notion they are doing this with average talent is baloney.
Yes Boston has two additional all stars sitting on their bench but the notion they are doing this with average talent is baloney.
You defined "franchise level player" that way. Others might have other or better definitions. And often a franchise player (whatever your definition) is chosen much later than top 5.
Just pick BPA. Drafting #1 got us Pervis Ellison and other teams such gems as Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Kwame Brown, Michael Olowokandi, and Derrick Coleman, among others. There are no "guarantees". Every one of the top 5 (just to pick a number) of the players in this draft could fail due to injury, drug use, lack of drive/desire now that they "made it" to the NBA, car accidents, or numerous other possibilities. For all we know, whoever is chosen at #21 might become the best player of the draft.
Does the #2 pick give us a better chance at getting a great player? Undoubtedly. We expanded our drafting options by 5 players. Doesn't mean those are going to end up being the best, just that we have a few more to choose from before they start their NBA career. No guarantees. No promises. I wish people would stop painting it that way.
Just pick BPA. Drafting #1 got us Pervis Ellison and other teams such gems as Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Kwame Brown, Michael Olowokandi, and Derrick Coleman, among others. There are no "guarantees". Every one of the top 5 (just to pick a number) of the players in this draft could fail due to injury, drug use, lack of drive/desire now that they "made it" to the NBA, car accidents, or numerous other possibilities. For all we know, whoever is chosen at #21 might become the best player of the draft.
Does the #2 pick give us a better chance at getting a great player? Undoubtedly. We expanded our drafting options by 5 players. Doesn't mean those are going to end up being the best, just that we have a few more to choose from before they start their NBA career. No guarantees. No promises. I wish people would stop painting it that way.
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Dirk is also probably closer to the top half than the bottom half of that list.....unless top 10 all time scorer doesn’t mean much.
If you are a top 50 player of all time, a perennial all-star and MVP then you absolutely are a franchise player. You mustn’t have seen Duncan, KG , Dirk etc in their prime. They absolutely were franchise players and are a first ballot Hall of Fame material perennial all-stars and former MVPs.
San Antonio rebuilt their whole franchise on the back of Tim Duncan and went on to be one of the most successful NBA teams in the last 15 odd years.
Err you obviously did not read what I wrote and went off on a tangent. Leonrad was considered a mid first round pick when he came out of college and some had him going in the lottery. Kawhi was afforded the luxury of developing slowly because he went to a contender and was initially asked to play D and spot up from the corner.
Leonard is not a product of some European system, he is a product of one of the most successful franchises in the NBA in the last 20 years and. Hall of Fame coach. You make it sound like the Spurs always played European type of basketball. You might want to check again. Pop is a coach who has changed the style of play of his team more than any other coach over the last 20 years.
Want to tell us how Spurs fared this season without their franchise player and a career best year from LMA? Yes they got to the play offs but them what happened?
San Antonio rebuilt their whole franchise on the back of Tim Duncan and went on to be one of the most successful NBA teams in the last 15 odd years.
Err you obviously did not read what I wrote and went off on a tangent. Leonrad was considered a mid first round pick when he came out of college and some had him going in the lottery. Kawhi was afforded the luxury of developing slowly because he went to a contender and was initially asked to play D and spot up from the corner.
Leonard is not a product of some European system, he is a product of one of the most successful franchises in the NBA in the last 20 years and. Hall of Fame coach. You make it sound like the Spurs always played European type of basketball. You might want to check again. Pop is a coach who has changed the style of play of his team more than any other coach over the last 20 years.
Want to tell us how Spurs fared this season without their franchise player and a career best year from LMA? Yes they got to the play offs but them what happened?
Statistically your bolded statement is almost a certainty. The mean number of 3 time all stars for any draft class is 2.5. It is rare for their to be less than 1 and since this is considered a strong draft class 3-4 is highly probable and 2 is a near certainty.
What is not a certainty is the King’s scouting department can identify said player.
What is not a certainty is the King’s scouting department can identify said player.
I'm not talking statistically. I'm talking the reality of 5 years from now. And you could be right. I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm saying everyone (or at least a lot of people) is speaking in absolutes about getting an all-star at the #2 which are not necessarily true. What if we draft another Ricky Berry? Or Bobby Hurley? Are you going to skewer the team even if we draft a good or great player that never makes it to be an all-star for whatever reason? What if the Suns pass on Ayton, we draft him, and he turns out like Oden after 2 years?
I agree with you regarding the scouting department. But the same can be said for scouting departments of every team at some point or another. I bet you can pick out draft mistakes in any draft class. Someone blows a pick. Believe me, they don't do it intentionally.
I agree with you regarding the scouting department. But the same can be said for scouting departments of every team at some point or another. I bet you can pick out draft mistakes in any draft class. Someone blows a pick. Believe me, they don't do it intentionally.
I think you’re missing my point. At 2, especially in this years draft, a 3 time all star will be on the board. It’s Vlade’s job to sort through it and find that player.
No draft class has had 7 three time all stars. So to draft one at 7 requires 3-4 other GM’s to incorrectly identify talent. Does it happen? Sure but at that point two hard things have to happen 1) team 1 (at slot 2) has to miss and 2) team 2 (at slot 7) has to hit it.
All I’m saying is the player is there at 2. Just taking the obvious choice at 2 has often proven to be incorrect. Through out the conventional wisdom of who the top 2 should be, do your homework on all the top guys and take your best shot.
No draft class has had 7 three time all stars. So to draft one at 7 requires 3-4 other GM’s to incorrectly identify talent. Does it happen? Sure but at that point two hard things have to happen 1) team 1 (at slot 2) has to miss and 2) team 2 (at slot 7) has to hit it.
All I’m saying is the player is there at 2. Just taking the obvious choice at 2 has often proven to be incorrect. Through out the conventional wisdom of who the top 2 should be, do your homework on all the top guys and take your best shot.
And do you know Duncan when he was selected didn't have a lot of "potential" because he was already that good? Same as Doncic.
And what's "European system" for you? In my idea of basketball even Adelman's Kings played European basketball.
I define European basketball a system based on ball movement, high quality shots,off the ball movement, no iso or hero ball.
Anyway... That's the difference. Good basketball with no stars (Leonard-less Spurs) 50 wins (more or less) win, bad basketball with stars (Cousns Kings) 30 wins (more or less).
Leonard drafted by the Kings would have been just an average player.
And what's "European system" for you? In my idea of basketball even Adelman's Kings played European basketball.
I define European basketball a system based on ball movement, high quality shots,off the ball movement, no iso or hero ball.
Anyway... That's the difference. Good basketball with no stars (Leonard-less Spurs) 50 wins (more or less) win, bad basketball with stars (Cousns Kings) 30 wins (more or less).
Leonard drafted by the Kings would have been just an average player.
Sure if you want to get into linguistics... You know he's right though, one of the guys drafted #2 or later will be an three time all star. That's not much of a stretch, I mean if Vegas was giving you odds on that bet it would be like 30:1. The problem is the all Star could be a guy selected later like d.mitchell, k.leonard, d.green, etc. Those are guys that will never be in the running for pick #2. The real question is who will be the best player between Doncic, Jackson, Porter, Bamba, and Bagley. Those are the legitimate candidates at #2.
So many times you talk about a player's ceiling but I'm glad that you mentioned their floor. Sometimes you have to look at that when evaluating between multiple players. I do think of all the players in the draft, his floor is the highest. I have no doubt he can be a solid third player on any team right now. Of course the hope and the belief is he can be more than that.
With that said, the potential ceiling is more important than the floor when drafting someone. yet when you're putting two or three players side by side, that tends to be my final evaluation tool
With that said, the potential ceiling is more important than the floor when drafting someone. yet when you're putting two or three players side by side, that tends to be my final evaluation tool
As a mathematician, I would rather use expected value. Since there is no way to calculate expected value, I'd have to aproximate it with percieved expected value. For two players with the same/similar percieved expected value, one can either use higher (percieved) variance or lower one. Higher variance means lower floor and higher ceiling. Lower variance means, well, the oposite. Personaly, I would go with lower variance.
I want this team to be better this year. I want them to be competitive, to root for them, be proud of them, watch them compete in PO. If they win championship one day, great, however I want to enjoy the journey regardless of the final outcome.
I want this team to be better this year. I want them to be competitive, to root for them, be proud of them, watch them compete in PO. If they win championship one day, great, however I want to enjoy the journey regardless of the final outcome.
People don't seem to get that there is a distinct difference between regular season and play off basketball. Sure Spurs won 50 odd games without Kawhi but how did they fare in the play-offs? Bounced out early? Why is it that when Spurs need a basket they go to a 40 year old Manu in an iso?
I am not saying ball movement is bad. I am not that stupid. Ball movement is absolutely what you want but when it comes to that play offs grind and that last possession, its when stars take over to either win it or go into the locker room with head down.
Warriors play with a lot of ball movement but when its down to that shot, that last possession, they go to their stars to create something out of iso. People might not like iso ball but the reality is, player's ability to score or create from iso is equally important as their ability to play as part of the team.
Please, lets not compare Doncic to Duncan. Duncan was a ready made superstar at the NBA level. He immediately became the face of the franchise despite Spurs having David Robinson who is one of the top 50 all time players. Teams tanked to get Tim Duncan. He had a bit of LeBron "hype" about him in his draft class. Here are Duncan's accomplishments in his rookie season
All-Star
All NBA 1st Team
NBA All Defensive 2nd Team
NBA ROY (including every single Rookie of the month award that season)
His averages in his rookie year were
21ppg 12 rpg 2.7apg 2.5bpg all that at 55% shooting. Pretty similar stats to those in his final year at Wake Forest.
One of the best two way players the moment he stepped foot on the NBA floor.
Nothing would make me happier than to see Luka get the same accolades but lets face it, if he were in the same league as Duncan was coming into his draft year, he would be out and out #1 pick and the rest of the NBA would be throwing all sorts of trade proposals to Phoenix to get him. Its pretty clear that is not the case here.
It doesn't mean that Doncic will not end up in the hall of fame and have a similar NBA career but odds are stacked against him.
On the Kings, yes we played Princeton style of basketball based on ball movement, cuts etc but Chris Webber was still the franchise player at the time. He was the face of the franchise and everything was built around him. Every player brought into that team was about how he would fit around the main guys. The team would go as far as Webber would take them. When Webber got trade and Vlade moved to Lakers for his retirement cheque the team struggled and did not look like sniffing the plays offs despite still playing a similar brand of basketball. Until they traded Peja for Ron Artest aka Metta World Peace.
I am not saying ball movement is bad. I am not that stupid. Ball movement is absolutely what you want but when it comes to that play offs grind and that last possession, its when stars take over to either win it or go into the locker room with head down.
Warriors play with a lot of ball movement but when its down to that shot, that last possession, they go to their stars to create something out of iso. People might not like iso ball but the reality is, player's ability to score or create from iso is equally important as their ability to play as part of the team.
Please, lets not compare Doncic to Duncan. Duncan was a ready made superstar at the NBA level. He immediately became the face of the franchise despite Spurs having David Robinson who is one of the top 50 all time players. Teams tanked to get Tim Duncan. He had a bit of LeBron "hype" about him in his draft class. Here are Duncan's accomplishments in his rookie season
All-Star
All NBA 1st Team
NBA All Defensive 2nd Team
NBA ROY (including every single Rookie of the month award that season)
His averages in his rookie year were
21ppg 12 rpg 2.7apg 2.5bpg all that at 55% shooting. Pretty similar stats to those in his final year at Wake Forest.
One of the best two way players the moment he stepped foot on the NBA floor.
Nothing would make me happier than to see Luka get the same accolades but lets face it, if he were in the same league as Duncan was coming into his draft year, he would be out and out #1 pick and the rest of the NBA would be throwing all sorts of trade proposals to Phoenix to get him. Its pretty clear that is not the case here.
It doesn't mean that Doncic will not end up in the hall of fame and have a similar NBA career but odds are stacked against him.
On the Kings, yes we played Princeton style of basketball based on ball movement, cuts etc but Chris Webber was still the franchise player at the time. He was the face of the franchise and everything was built around him. Every player brought into that team was about how he would fit around the main guys. The team would go as far as Webber would take them. When Webber got trade and Vlade moved to Lakers for his retirement cheque the team struggled and did not look like sniffing the plays offs despite still playing a similar brand of basketball. Until they traded Peja for Ron Artest aka Metta World Peace.
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People were tanking left and right in a blatantly unprecedented fashion since Tim Duncan's draft year to get a top pick this year. Doncic was widely regarded as the #1, but it's a year like Oden/Durant.
I feel it is important to point out that in the 82 games that Brandon Roy, Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge appeared in together the Blazers won at a 75% clip. Had he not been consistently injured the Blazers would have a few more trophies in their case to go along the one from 77.
Also in Duncan's and LeBron's draft years you never heard about trades for #1 because the Spurs and Cavs would have been insane to trade from the top pick.
I feel it is important to point out that in the 82 games that Brandon Roy, Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge appeared in together the Blazers won at a 75% clip. Had he not been consistently injured the Blazers would have a few more trophies in their case to go along the one from 77.
Also in Duncan's and LeBron's draft years you never heard about trades for #1 because the Spurs and Cavs would have been insane to trade from the top pick.