Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[206Fan]

Sorry, but this thread becomes unreadable, so I can't wait for the draft to be over. The amount of Doncic bashing has risen to insanity. People still don't understand that Doncic wasn't playing college basketball and that most college teams wouldn't stand a chance in the Euroleague. I'm not the biggest Doncic lover either, but this is getting insane...

Any criticism towards Doncic comes off as bashing? Come on now.

I think it's a combination of (A) Some people don't believe a player from Europe can be a superstar (B) In light of this, they're looking for reasons to dismiss Doncic's unprecedented success or at least frame it as a product of an inferior league where athleticism isn't important (C) With only one prospect still playing games, every thing he does is being nitpicked and second-guessed (D) Sacramento is still viewed by some as the worst possible place to send a young player so there's reluctance on the part of some media to see this as good fortune for the Kings-- electing instead to see it as misfortune for Doncic and this is feeding back to the fans.

If you want to be bothered by all of that I can't stop you. I've been watching Doncic all year long so one or two games here at the end of the year is not going to sway my opinion much. Scanning a box score is not going to sway my opinion much either. I don't expect anyone to take my word for it but I think all this hand-wringing about lack of athleticism is much ado about nothing. Go back and watch the tape against OKC and then remind yourself this is a 17 year old kid you're watching.

I agree with what you're getting at, but I disagree with 1 part. I think being "nitpicked" in the right word, but people are taking it the wrong way. I don't think he's been unfairly treated from the other prospects. With Doncic, you're evaluating him as the potential #1 draft pick. Everything gets put under a microscope. You're held to a high standard among the names of Simmons, KAT, AD, Irving, Wall, etc. Look at Andrew Wiggins for example. He's averaged around 20pts 4rebs 2asts 1stl on 44/33/74, yet he's considered a great disappointment by many. Doncic's hype surpasses Wiggins'.

I've also been watching Doncic for nearly 3 years now. I do think his athleticism is a weakness of his. I think his lack of athleticism could have an impact on how effectively he'll be able to score in the NBA. There's too many times he struggles to get free of his defender. Even in the Latvia game, he settled for jumpers a lot. In the OKC tape, Doncic was only 17yearsold, he's 19 now. Since then, his body has changed. He's gotten an inch or 2 taller, while adding at least 10-15lbs onto his frame.

I'll just leave it here because I don't think we'll agree on a conclusion.

 

[206Fan]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...cdonough-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic/646199002/

Pheonix GM in Ayton and Doncic a little bit.
Talks about how big Doncic is in person and Doncic said he was 6’7 without shoes. A euro insider in the podcast I posted earlier said Doncic is closer to 6’9 in shoes so he has amazing size for SF.

I think he meant he's big as in his frame and strength. He was listed since last season around 220lbs, but he's clearly gotten bigger and stronger since then. Just 9months ago, I was speculating if he was actually 6'8 or more 6'6-6'7. I don't think he's 6'9. Probably an over exaggeration. At the beginning of the season the Euroleague website had him at 6'5 w/o shoes.

Just from keeping track of him throughout the season, he's probably 6'8. 6'9 seems like the writer was just stretching it. 6'8 230lbs is still fantastic size for a SF anyways, so I don't think it matters too much.

 

[ESP47]

Over the last four years, Westbrook is 6th overall in the NBA in defensive win shares, though since that's an accumulation stat some of that has to do with him logging a ton of minutes. Looking at a rate-based stat, he is 19th in DRtg in the league over the last four years (min. 250 games).

The objection was raised because Westbrook was listed among lead guards with "putrid" defense who needed to be hidden on that side of the ball. He clearly does not belong on that list. Perhaps he slacks off from time to time, but he's still one of the league's best defenders (and one of the league's very best guard defenders) even taking that into account.

Yeah and that's basically what I was talking about. His statistics look good but some of those advanced stats rely heavily on rebounding and steal rates. I'm not saying it's a bad thing to steal the ball and rebound it but if you're doing it at the expense of giving up wide open shots, then it can be a misleading stat in the same way that it was misleading when Rondo did something similar with us.

 

[ParniValjak]

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=005929&seasoncode=E2017#!E2017_PO

These are Doncic's playoff stats. I'm looking at Final Four and Playoffs and I don't find them very compelling, other than FT%. If offense is his main thing, wouldn't his stats tell a fairly decent story? If he's a great passer, why not more assists?

By the way, Magic Johnson's stats for the NCAA tourney when he was at Mich. State was per game: 21.8 pts, 8.8 rebounds, 10 assists, 2.6 steals; an average FT% of 89% and FG% of 52%. He played an average of around 36 minutes/game.

I am not convinced about Dončić at 2 but you are comparing apples and oranges. What you call and assist in the NBA or USA is not considered an assist in Europe. An assist in Europe is a pass that leads to a dunk or a layup/layin without any dribbles by a player receiving a pass. We seem to be clarifying this every year around here.

Ricky Rubio averaged under 4 assists per game in Europe and doubled that as soon as he got to the NBA. Plust games in Europe last 40 minutes unlike 48 in the NBA.

 

[sterö]

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=005929&seasoncode=E2017#!E2017_PO

These are Doncic's playoff stats. I'm looking at Final Four and Playoffs and I don't find them very compelling, other than FT%. If offense is his main thing, wouldn't his stats tell a fairly decent story? If he's a great passer, why not more assists?

By the way, Magic Johnson's stats for the NCAA tourney when he was at Mich. State was per game: 21.8 pts, 8.8 rebounds, 10 assists, 2.6 steals; an average FT% of 89% and FG% of 52%. He played an average of around 36 minutes/game.

If his only strength is FT shooting, maybe we can pick him in the second round?

 

[rosa u podne]

Yeah and that's basically what I was talking about. His statistics look good but some of those advanced stats rely heavily on rebounding and steal rates. I'm not saying it's a bad thing to steal the ball and rebound it but if you're doing it at the expense of giving up wide open shots, then it can be a misleading stat in the same way that it was misleading when Rondo did something similar with us.

I must admit I haven't watched him a lot, except for highlights. However, I remember a game against Denver they lost with a last second shot by Harris. He was supposed to guard Harris, but he stayed in rebounding position allowing Harris to shoot (and hit) wide open 3.

 

[purplenotgold]

Too risky taking a guy without top flight athleticism at #2 imo. I really want to love Doncic as I'm not sold on any of the other prospects chances of being an elite talent either. On paper the idea of getting a 19yr old Euro mvp with a well rounded game is pretty enticing. He was the LeBron of Europe this year but Trae Young was the Steph Curry of the NCAA and he's not in the discussion at #2. Athleticism limits some of these guys upsides. Doesn't mean it's impossible they'll reach perennial all star status but it does make it less likely. I keep trying to convince myself that Doncic has a good chance to be great but what I really believe is that he has a great chance to be good.

When so called 'evaluators' cant evaluate stats they lean and pick an athletic guy to be safe. If he busts they just say, well he was athletic but didnt work on his skills. Skills matter more than athleticism! Mclemore & Thomas Robinson are prime examples?

 

[roasthawg]

When so called 'evaluators' cant evaluate stats they lean and pick an athletic guy to be safe. If he busts they just say, well he was athletic but didnt work on his skills. Skills matter more than athleticism! Mclemore & Thomas Robinson are prime examples?

I agree.... But this is the top of the draft where you can get a guy that has both. Jackson, Bamba, Porter and Bagley are all skilled players and great athletes. Doncic is a more skilled player than those guys but a far lessor athlete. Imo this is a really tough call.

 

[Hansel]

Instead of pairing Doncic stats with NCAA players, let's pairing them with Porzingis stats.
Same league, same opponents. Porzingis was one year older and he was playing on a bad team.
21 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 31% from three, 77% from ftline, 4.8 rpg, 0.4 apg,1.1 bpg.
He would have been a second rounder, I love this thread already hahahaha.

 

[206Fan]

Instead of pairing Doncic stats with NCAA players, let's pairing them with Porzingis stats.
Same league, same opponents. Porzingis was one year older and he was playing on a bad team.
21 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 31% from three, 77% from ftline, 4.8 rpg, 0.4 apg,1.1 bpg.
He would have been a second rounder, I love this thread already hahahaha.

Porzingis was much more athletic than Doncic. I was very high on Porzingis, still am. I think he was a better prospect than Doncic. You don't need to dominate Europe to be a good NBA prospect.

 

[Hansel]

Athleticism is overrated, imo.
Marc Gasol can't jump over a newspaper and has been the best center in the league for a while.
Bodiroga dominated the game, even in international events like against US.

 

[ApolloDaGod]

Luka is a good shooter and passer. I think the NCAA has much better prospects this year (every year). Luka is playing against "grown men" but the ocean of top elite players in the Euroleague is very thin. I think Luka can do very well in the NBA, just not at the #2 pick with Bagley, Porter and Jackson being available. If we were drafting 5th I'de take Luka.

 

[Joshoua]

Luka is a good shooter and passer. I think the NCAA has much better prospects this year (every year). Luka is playing against "grown men" but the ocean of top elite players in the Euroleague is very thin. I think Luka can do very well in the NBA, just not at the #2 pick with Bagley, Porter and Jackson being available. If we were drafting 5th I'de take Luka.

What have those guys ahead of Doncic proved? Especially porter who would’ve thought not playing is better than playing Skal should’ve skipped Kentucky and been a top 3 pick

 

[roasthawg]

What have those guys ahead of Doncic proved? Especially porter who would’ve thought not playing is better than playing Skal should’ve skipped Kentucky and been a top 3 pick

No one's proven anything... It's about being a great NBA player, not about college, highschool, euro, or whatever else. You don't have to prove a thing to be a high draft pick... It's all about guessing who will make a great pro.

 

[ApolloDaGod]

What have those guys ahead of Doncic proved? Especially porter who would’ve thought not playing is better than playing Skal should’ve skipped Kentucky and been a top 3 pick

I will agree on Porter, but his ceiling is drastically higher than Lukas.
They play against better top tier talent in the NCAA, while Luka plays in the Euroleague, which has a lot more of C+ talent, no stars. Which is my theory in why Luka is rated so high, because he is good, but just in the Euroleague. I wouldn't be against Luka being a King, just as long as Jackson, Porter and Bagley are gone.

 

[Hansel]

No one's proven anything... It's about being a great NBA player, not about college, highschool, euro, or whatever else. You don't have to prove a thing to be a high draft pick... It's all about guessing who will make a great pro.

Doncic beat Marc Gasol ass.
Doncic beat Pau Gasol ass.
Doncic beat all the rest of Spanish national team, I don't remember all the NBA players the got.
Doncic beat Porzingis ass.
Doncic beat Bogdanovic ass.
Doncic beat Fournier ass.

Didn't prove anything.

 

[Telemachus]

I will agree on Porter, but his ceiling is drastically higher than Lukas.
They play against better top tier talent in the NCAA, while Luka plays in the Euroleague, which has a lot more of C+ talent, no stars. Which is my theory in why Luka is rated so high, because he is good, but just in the Euroleague. I wouldn't be against Luka being a King, just as long as Jackson, Porter and Bagley are gone.

You have greatly undervalued the talent in the Euroleague. If you put Duke (with 2 top 10 picks in this draft) in the same league with Real Madrid, they would be lucky to win a game (much less the championship).

 

[burekijogurt]

Doncic beat Marc Gasol ass.
Doncic beat Pau Gasol ass.
Doncic beat all the rest of Spanish national team, I don't remember all the NBA players the got.
Doncic beat Porzingis ass.
Doncic beat Bogdanovic ass.
Doncic beat Fournier ass.

Didn't prove anything.

his appetite for ass seems insatiable

me joke. he is definitely an accomplished player.

 

[hrdboild]

I will agree on Porter, but his ceiling is drastically higher than Lukas.
They play against better top tier talent in the NCAA, while Luka plays in the Euroleague, which has a lot more of C+ talent, no stars. Which is my theory in why Luka is rated so high, because he is good, but just in the Euroleague. I wouldn't be against Luka being a King, just as long as Jackson, Porter and Bagley are gone.

Why is Porter's ceiling higher than Doncic's? Doncic is a better passer, better ballhandler, and better overall defender right now. The whole high ceiling thing with Porter seems to be based on his size and athleticism in high school but we don't know that he'll be the same level of athlete that he was before the back surgery and he still wasn't a good defender even at that level. The amount of red flags with Porter (injury history, suspect defense, no college tape, limited lateral quickness) should keep him out of the top 5 yet people here want us to pick him at #2, why? If he can't guard anybody is he just a taller Kevin Martin? The superstar hype for this guy is bewildering to me. Best-case scenario he's a guy who gets you 25 points per game and little else. Didn't we just have that player in Rudy Gay?

 

[roasthawg]

Why is Porter's ceiling higher than Doncic's? Doncic is a better passer, better ballhandler, and better overall defender right now. The whole high ceiling thing with Porter seems to be based on his size and athleticism in high school but we don't know that he'll be the same level of athlete that he was before the back surgery and he still wasn't a good defender even at that level. The amount of red flags with Porter (injury history, suspect defense, no college tape, limited lateral quickness) should keep him out of the top 5 yet people here want us to pick him at #2, why? If he can't guard anybody is he just a taller Kevin Martin? The superstar hype for this guy is bewildering to me. Best-case scenario he's a guy who gets you 25 points per game and little else. Didn't we just have that player in Rudy Gay?

That's the same thing everyone was saying about Tatum last year. I don't know that Porter's ceiling is higher than Doncic but if you pick a best case for him it could be a kd type of player.

 

[gunks]

That's the same thing everyone was saying about Tatum last year. I don't know that Porter's ceiling is higher than Doncic but if you pick a best case for him it could be a kd type of player.

Tatum ended up on the Cs, who may very well have a "Pops tier" coach. Of course he was going to look good.

If Porter Jr ends up here, he'll be developed by a "better than Kenny Natt" tier coach. Gotta keep the red flags in mind.

After hearing that Porter Jrs back surgery was nbd, I'm slightly more open to the pick. Still not a huge fan of his skillset though, and he may be a tweener (albeit one with huge offensive upside, like Derek Williams or Beasley!), and there's a bunch of other players I'd rather draft ahead of him. ...

... yeah, talked myself out of it again. No on Porter.

 

[206Fan]

Tatum ended up on the Cs, who may very well have a "Pops tier" coach. Of course he was going to look good.

If Porter Jr ends up here, he'll be developed by a "better than Kenny Natt" tier coach. Gotta keep the red flags in mind.

After hearing that Porter Jrs back surgery was nbd, I'm slightly more open to the pick. Still not a huge fan of his skillset though, and he may be a tweener (albeit one with huge offensive upside, like Derek Williams or Beasley!), and there's a bunch of other players I'd rather draft ahead of him. ...

... yeah, talked myself out of it again. No on Porter.

A tweener in today's game would be a perfect fit though. Not that Doncic is a tweener, but his ability to play multiple positions is one of the reasons why he's highly rated.

 

[iowamcnabb]

The biggest concern regarding Luka seems to be a questionable iso game with the culprit being lack of athleticism. He does have plus handles however. Can we think of players with plus handles that could not create their own shot?

 

[Kingster]

I am not convinced about Dončić at 2 but you are comparing apples and oranges. What you call and assist in the NBA or USA is not considered an assist in Europe. An assist in Europe is a pass that leads to a dunk or a layup/layin without any dribbles by a player receiving a pass. We seem to be clarifying this every year around here.

Ricky Rubio averaged under 4 assists per game in Europe and doubled that as soon as he got to the NBA. Plust games in Europe last 40 minutes unlike 48 in the NBA.

Fair enough. But here's a euro guy who in an average of 27 min/game had 6.8 assists in euro land. So what assists does he have in NBA land? 4.6 assists a game in 25 minutes of play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/milos-teodosic-1.html

 

[Kingster]

If his only strength is FT shooting, maybe we can pick him in the second round?

How do you explain the stats? Ok, the assists are understated. What about the other stats? Snark isn't an argument, just snark.

 

[TaxMan]

Bingo. This ain’t your daddy’s nba. You really can’t be worried about filling out a “balanced” roster anymore. Need as many skilled players as we can get.

 

[sactowndog]

When so called 'evaluators' cant evaluate stats they lean and pick an athletic guy to be safe. If he busts they just say, well he was athletic but didnt work on his skills. Skills matter more than athleticism! Mclemore & Thomas Robinson are prime examples?

For a top 2 pick ideally you want skills and athleticism which is why if his back checks out I’m considering Porter. But I would have to see him in workouts which I won’t but Vlade will.

 

[sactowndog]

The biggest concern regarding Luka seems to be a questionable iso game with the culprit being lack of athleticism. He does have plus handles however. Can we think of players with plus handles that could not create their own shot?

My biggest concern is defensively. If they are targeting him in the Euro league god forbid what the NBA will do. And it has nothing to do with being a Euro. Last year I watched Bogdan stay in front of Euro point guards and I thought he will be a decent defender on a step down to two guards. Which has proven true. Luca is guarding 4’s in Euro play and he’s not big enough to guard them in the NBA.

 

[Kingster]

I am not convinced about Dončić at 2 but you are comparing apples and oranges. What you call and assist in the NBA or USA is not considered an assist in Europe. An assist in Europe is a pass that leads to a dunk or a layup/layin without any dribbles by a player receiving a pass. We seem to be clarifying this every year around here.

Ricky Rubio averaged under 4 assists per game in Europe and doubled that as soon as he got to the NBA. Plust games in Europe last 40 minutes unlike 48 in the NBA.

See above. You can't pick out just the successes to compare Doncic to. That's just confirmation bias. Look at other euro players where their stats got worse in the NBA, not better.

 

[rosa u podne]

See above. You can't pick out just the successes to compare Doncic to. That's just confirmation bias. Look at other euro players where their stats got worse in the NBA, not better.

It is not about successes, it is about counting methodology. ParniValjak clearly described how is it counted and how to read them. Will Doncic be better or worst in the NBA I don't know, but his assist numbers in Euroligue are not bad.