Kings picking 13th overall (formerly the draft lotto thread)
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Any interest in re-visiting Naz Reid for #13 and whatever? He has a player option he will almost assuredly decline after this next season and Minnesota probably can’t re-sign him given their cap situation. Unless they can unload Kat’s monster deal they may be best served trading him now. A player plus a lottery pick and say Portland’s second rounder may be enticing for a second apron team.
The logic is reasonable the only issue in comparing the Kings and Celtics is the Celtics are built around two types of players that you find more often than not on championship teams in this era. Brown and Tatum are two guys that can square up an entire defense and score. They don't need system play, just a screen, if that. The Kings have Fox, that's pretty much it. The Mavs and C's have 2 guys a piece that can do that at top 5-10 levels. The Kings might not be able to supporting cast their way anywhere. In one season last year they kind of did reshuffle the decks thanks to injury and while the defense jumped dramatically, the wins didn't. Small sample but the trick might be building around a player like Domas. That's probably why Monte thinks a 3rd star is such a priority. Domas isn't Tatum or Brown, he's more like the CP3 of this team.
The problem is that those type of players don’t grow on trees. There are many great players mentioned in this thread. But tell me this, taking the seat of the other team gm. You really taking Barnes and Heurter for someone on the fox/Domas level? If not, the Kings have to throw many picks or Keegan in. You better be sure the guy you are getting is going to make you a contender because you just mortgaged the future. No the best way is to buy low on a guy like Miles Bridges and pray he gets better. That way you have less skin in the game, than if you went after a star now guy.
Most of Boston's moves are shrewd trading and their ability to have done a total reset rather than ride the 2008 team until its dying husk the way the Maloofs thought they could with our golden year team.
Boston is not an NBA FA destination. Definitely in MLB and maybe in the NHL. Not under Belichick and definitely not the NBA where the town half right and half wrong has the rep as the most racist city in the Eastern Conference.
Boston is not an NBA FA destination. Definitely in MLB and maybe in the NHL. Not under Belichick and definitely not the NBA where the town half right and half wrong has the rep as the most racist city in the Eastern Conference.
It's not a 1 to 1 comparison for the reason you point out but Sabonis is such a unique player that I think you could argue he provides as much value as Brown does in his own way. He averages a few less points, true, but assists also represent made baskets and he was 6th in the league in assists per game this season to go along with leading the league in rebounding. In my line of thinking Sabonis is a Brown level player but he plays Horford's position so now we need Keegan Murray to be a Horford level player as a wing creator to cover that aspect of what Brown brings to the table. Murray is almost there if he can combine his lights-out shooting from his rookie season with his standout defense from his second season.
You're also forgetting that the Kings do have Monk as another go-to scorer. Keon Ellis is playing the Jrue Holiday role as a defensive specialist. He doesn't have the pedigree of a guy like Jrue yet (or the blue-chip prospect background) but he's just getting started in his career. These guys are all really good pieces to build around and they're all relatively young still.
Look, I'm not saying that the Kings are destined to be a 64 win team any time soon. I'm just trying to balance out some of the angst of a disappointing season with some perspective. The best team in the league this year has just one top 10 player and and another player who is somewhere in the top 20. What they also have is a group of players who all compliment each other and multiple All-Defense level individual defenders. And before we go too crazy trading multiple future picks or one of our cornerstone players for a veteran player with an albatross contract, let's keep in mind that the difference between first round playoff fodder and Finals contender isn't always that big. Even in the ultra competitive Western conference we have a Dallas team who didn't even make the play-in last season and now they're in the Finals. Panic moves rarely pay off -- let's continue to increment on what we already have because what we already have is very good!
You're also forgetting that the Kings do have Monk as another go-to scorer. Keon Ellis is playing the Jrue Holiday role as a defensive specialist. He doesn't have the pedigree of a guy like Jrue yet (or the blue-chip prospect background) but he's just getting started in his career. These guys are all really good pieces to build around and they're all relatively young still.
Look, I'm not saying that the Kings are destined to be a 64 win team any time soon. I'm just trying to balance out some of the angst of a disappointing season with some perspective. The best team in the league this year has just one top 10 player and and another player who is somewhere in the top 20. What they also have is a group of players who all compliment each other and multiple All-Defense level individual defenders. And before we go too crazy trading multiple future picks or one of our cornerstone players for a veteran player with an albatross contract, let's keep in mind that the difference between first round playoff fodder and Finals contender isn't always that big. Even in the ultra competitive Western conference we have a Dallas team who didn't even make the play-in last season and now they're in the Finals. Panic moves rarely pay off -- let's continue to increment on what we already have because what we already have is very good!
Boston has SOME advantage over Sacramento, but let's not pretend it's a big FA destination city the same way LA, Miami, or Houston is.
I'd argue that their recent success in trades has much less to do with the appeal of Boston itself and much more to do with how well the team has performed the last several years.
And comparing virtually ANY team's FAs and trade pulls over the last 10 years is not going to look good for the Kings. There's a reason this franchise didn't sniff the postseason for nearly two decades. Being a small market team may have been a small factor, but front office incompetence was the real driver.
I'd argue that their recent success in trades has much less to do with the appeal of Boston itself and much more to do with how well the team has performed the last several years.
And comparing virtually ANY team's FAs and trade pulls over the last 10 years is not going to look good for the Kings. There's a reason this franchise didn't sniff the postseason for nearly two decades. Being a small market team may have been a small factor, but front office incompetence was the real driver.
No, that's why the only legit option is someone that might not be super far behind but definitely behind (Markannen/Grant/etc.) or a pure gamble type that was an all star level player who has issues in some way and their value is down (LaVine). I think the Kings are in a unique spot to add a 3rd/4th guy and if they can WITHOUT moving Keegan and Keegan even just gets up maybe one more level that's a legit big 4 and very few teams have those either. Monte reportedly took swings on a gamble guy already in Beal, and two higher valued players in OG, and Siakam. They may have been pieces to build up a solid 4 but the Raptors wanted Keegan which is 2 steps forward, 1 back kind of stuff. We'll see if this pick helps options open up.
I'm going by history in my statement. In the modern era the only player that remotely looks like Domas that won a ring is Joker. Clearly, they are on different levels as scorers but that does show it's possible. That also tells you that copying another teams path might not be viable since you're built completely differently than like 99% of the league. Overall Domas might = Brown, but the truth is Brown will get you 25-27 a night when called upon. Top 10, 20, maybe, but right now the two teams that made the finals are ones built around guard skills essentially. That's the key. If Domas can put up those scoring numbers then he's on a Jokic level, which right now he's not shown to be. He's not far under but that's the difference between being a 3rd team NBA guy and MVP. This is why I really like the path Monte is attempting to go down by adding more weapon AROUND Domas. It's the same thing CP3 kind of went through. He was more glue than your number 1 option.
Monk could help but we've seen this roster 2 seasons now. It could click as is next season but if it doesn't? Also Monk hasn't really shown great aptitude as a go to scorer although he is a bench player which makes it tougher. His comps historically in that capacity are players like Jordan Poole. Hmmm... maybe Brown knows something? Monks real benefit to the team is his overall skill level and energy which is hard to put a dollar amount on. Monk had a really rough year last year in ISO. He was getting the Kings about .67 ppp with an effective FG% of 33%. That said he's normally higher than that. He was in the 17th percentile last season but he's normally in the low to mid 40's IIRC. Monk if in Fox's role could end up at that level, or even next to Fox could end up at that level. This is one of the only knocks I can lodge against Brown because he didn't even take a look at it. And now the time has ticked away. Now if Monte is making the assumption that Monk is the go to guy, then that's just a guess at this point, even if it's a good guess. The advanced numbers say otherwise though.
I haven't really seen that much angst TBH. I think more like the tone is starting to actually be based on results of the last 2 seasons and that appears to look as if some type of roster improvement is needed. I mean it can't be a shocker to anyone that wasn't ignoring what many of the teams around the Kings were doing since the deadline of the 2022-23 season. Monte's been trying before this season to improve his talent level, rumors of the pick and future picks being up for grabs should shock nobody.
Monk could help but we've seen this roster 2 seasons now. It could click as is next season but if it doesn't? Also Monk hasn't really shown great aptitude as a go to scorer although he is a bench player which makes it tougher. His comps historically in that capacity are players like Jordan Poole. Hmmm... maybe Brown knows something? Monks real benefit to the team is his overall skill level and energy which is hard to put a dollar amount on. Monk had a really rough year last year in ISO. He was getting the Kings about .67 ppp with an effective FG% of 33%. That said he's normally higher than that. He was in the 17th percentile last season but he's normally in the low to mid 40's IIRC. Monk if in Fox's role could end up at that level, or even next to Fox could end up at that level. This is one of the only knocks I can lodge against Brown because he didn't even take a look at it. And now the time has ticked away. Now if Monte is making the assumption that Monk is the go to guy, then that's just a guess at this point, even if it's a good guess. The advanced numbers say otherwise though.
I haven't really seen that much angst TBH. I think more like the tone is starting to actually be based on results of the last 2 seasons and that appears to look as if some type of roster improvement is needed. I mean it can't be a shocker to anyone that wasn't ignoring what many of the teams around the Kings were doing since the deadline of the 2022-23 season. Monte's been trying before this season to improve his talent level, rumors of the pick and future picks being up for grabs should shock nobody.
Been watching a lot of Ryan Dunn and he's growing on me quite a bit. Granted, I'm not some avid college basketball watcher and basically just go back and watch games of prospects around draft time, but this dude looks like he could step on the floor tomorrow and be one of the better defensive players in the NBA, off rip. He might have the best rim protection instincts I've ever seen from a non-big. This dude goes after everything and often gets everything in terms of contests at the rim. If we "need" a unicorn defender next to Domas, this dude is as close as I've seen to being that. He's an incredible athlete with a huge wingspan and he's a stud in transition; something that could really work with Fox and Domas in that sense offensively.
He represents a real buy-low type opportunity I think. His offense is ROUGH ROUGH outside of his transition game, but this dude would be an easy top 5 pick if he had literally any sort of offensive game to go with his defense. But I think I'm damn sure he's going to be a major impact defender at the NBA level; it's just a matter if you can develop his offensive game enough to get him on the floor for 30+ MPG. Which, granted, is a major ask, but man. He checks every box for what you want and need as an NBA impact defender.
He represents a real buy-low type opportunity I think. His offense is ROUGH ROUGH outside of his transition game, but this dude would be an easy top 5 pick if he had literally any sort of offensive game to go with his defense. But I think I'm damn sure he's going to be a major impact defender at the NBA level; it's just a matter if you can develop his offensive game enough to get him on the floor for 30+ MPG. Which, granted, is a major ask, but man. He checks every box for what you want and need as an NBA impact defender.
Not a ton, but both Fox and Monk lead the team in possesions. I've said it before, I'll say it again, it's probably wise to look at that stat and why you should care is because specifically the top of the iso list in possessions is littered with all star level talent, MVP level players, and better teams. There are a few exceptions, Barnes has been one historically. The reason Dallas probably went after him is because his numbers at the time were near Melo. The skill was there, the mindset was not. He topped out around 20 per game and that team needed more.
Here is the list separated by the top iso options in the league:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?SeasonType=Regular Season&dir=D&sort=POSS
Fox is all the way down at 27 but the Kings run a lot of system, and that's exactly what has been costing them. Teams are starting to take away the DHO and Fox isn't always there to ram the basket home.
Here is the list separated by the top iso options in the league:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?SeasonType=Regular Season&dir=D&sort=POSS
Fox is all the way down at 27 but the Kings run a lot of system, and that's exactly what has been costing them. Teams are starting to take away the DHO and Fox isn't always there to ram the basket home.
Apparently employing the wrong system. Look at the NAMES. Where does Monk rank most years compared to them? You tell me. Look at the Kings DECLINE. You really want to say that doesn't matter? lol. I'm looking at the contending teams and seeing what they are apparently doing to get there. Fox only takes a few more but the difference? He does it at the level of someone like Luka most years. If you can't see the correlation you are trying way too hard. If Monk was that level, great, but Monk most years is in the 40th percentile, this last year? 17th. In the right situation maybe he gets up there, this is why I can't understand why Brown didn't at least give the starting spot to him when Fox was out. Why not at least see? Too late now. It's a guessing game now as to whether he can get there.
I have more to add on Ryan Dunn later when I post my top 20 but I agree that he's a guy we should be taking a real good look at. I really like what he provides on defense and he would fill a huge need for us a backup 3 who can also play minutes at the 4 spot. The problem I keep bumping against though is that taking him at #13 over higher upside guys who have proven offensive skillsets feels like a reach. There's a chance Dunn can't provide enough offensive value to stay on the floor in the NBA and then you've taken a minimum contract player in the lottery.
You're looking for a stat that solidifies your bias towards what you think Monk is as a player. It's an interesting factoid, sure, but there's absolutely nothing predictive about what you're trying to say here.
I do not think the Kings are a playoff team if Monk has 5 ISO possessions a game and is 78th percentile. That does not move the needle. You're suggesting it would. Again, you're using 1.2 possessions/game of Monk's season to determine some grand point about him. It does not make sense.
I do not think the Kings are a playoff team if Monk has 5 ISO possessions a game and is 78th percentile. That does not move the needle. You're suggesting it would. Again, you're using 1.2 possessions/game of Monk's season to determine some grand point about him. It does not make sense.
Really? Bias? Tell me, who is in the top 11 and where does Monk rank? Who does he compare to? Who is he "better than" in the top 30? I'm looking at the Kings weakness and where other players/teams rank. I think the fact that the Kings have less ISO ability is why they are falling. Tell me why they aren't. I think that Monk, Fox, or anyone that can get their own offense might be the difference and that teams taking the DHO out of play is the reason the Kings are falling. You know who apparently agrees? Keegan Murray. His post game interview after the Kings were eliminated he said they took the DHO away. That's what it looked like and might be what it was.
There's plenty of reasons why we're failing, that's been discussed everywhere on this forum this off-season. It's not 1.2 Malik Monk ISO possessions. That's for sure. Or that we don't ISO enough.
Comes back to our pretty big philosophical difference of what this team needs. You're looking for a Beal/LaVine/Grant type. I don't think we need that at all. This is sort of the same discussion as that.
Comes back to our pretty big philosophical difference of what this team needs. You're looking for a Beal/LaVine/Grant type. I don't think we need that at all. This is sort of the same discussion as that.
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