Blow It Up
- Thread starter SLAB
- Start date
Based on every article that comes out it sounds like Morey has crazy expectations for a team that trades for Simmons. More than likely any deal bringing us Simmons would've involved us sending Tyrese, and probably a pick, while also bringing back Tobias Harris. So in that regard this was probably the right move. The sad part about this means that our two options are either stand pat with the team we have currently , or trade for uninspiring players like Grant, Sabonis, etc. All of whom will require us sending out at least some assets and don't really move the needle. I'm usually anti tank until the season is fully lost, but right now it seems like the only logical way to go to get us back on track. The fact the team doesn't even want to entertain this option is unfortunate.
Is this the official Barnes vs. Collins thread?
Just took a look at 538's projections (not perfect, but convenient):
Collins (categorized as "up-and-comer"): projected 5-year market value of $106.3 M; projected WAR 6.3 this season then hovering around 5 the next few seasons
Barnes (categorized as "average starter"): projected 5-year market value of of $27.2M; projected WAR this season at 4.8, then 2.2, then 1.5, 0.9...
Digging in a little more, I think Collins would improve rebounding at the 4 compared to Barnes and would space the floor just as well. I'm not sure how much you can rely on Barnes' post game when we're talking about him as a 4 compared to as a 3, while Collins has some go-to guy potential, at least in a pinch, shown by his maintaining a high efficiency in past seasons when his usage was closer to mid-20s than this season's sub-20% (as compared to Barnes' inefficient high usage seasons in Dallas). Finally, you simply cannot put age aside when we're talking about a player who is still entering his prime compared to one that is about to turn 30.
Just took a look at 538's projections (not perfect, but convenient):
Collins (categorized as "up-and-comer"): projected 5-year market value of $106.3 M; projected WAR 6.3 this season then hovering around 5 the next few seasons
Barnes (categorized as "average starter"): projected 5-year market value of of $27.2M; projected WAR this season at 4.8, then 2.2, then 1.5, 0.9...
Digging in a little more, I think Collins would improve rebounding at the 4 compared to Barnes and would space the floor just as well. I'm not sure how much you can rely on Barnes' post game when we're talking about him as a 4 compared to as a 3, while Collins has some go-to guy potential, at least in a pinch, shown by his maintaining a high efficiency in past seasons when his usage was closer to mid-20s than this season's sub-20% (as compared to Barnes' inefficient high usage seasons in Dallas). Finally, you simply cannot put age aside when we're talking about a player who is still entering his prime compared to one that is about to turn 30.
Last edited:
The delta in 538's WAR this year is 1.5. That is not a game changing upgrade.
Then you cite that Collins' projected WAR is 5 over the next few years, but counter it with "you cannot put age aside". For a model like 538's, when they project something, they're factoring in AGE into their projections. A projected 5 WAR is not elite. Trading for Collins would be a world class mistake not because he's a bad player, but because you're betting on Fox being a star. He's not.
Then you cite that Collins' projected WAR is 5 over the next few years, but counter it with "you cannot put age aside". For a model like 538's, when they project something, they're factoring in AGE into their projections. A projected 5 WAR is not elite. Trading for Collins would be a world class mistake not because he's a bad player, but because you're betting on Fox being a star. He's not.
"You cannot put age aside" is not a counter to the future projections of Collins, it supports the significant delta between the projected impact of Collins and Barnes moving forward. It is a counter to only looking at the difference between the two this season.
And whether or not a 5 WAR is elite, and whether or not Fox is a star, are completely different questions than whether it is worth investing a first round pick (assuming with some degree of protection) for that delta between Barnes and Collins now and for the next few seasons.
And whether or not a 5 WAR is elite, and whether or not Fox is a star, are completely different questions than whether it is worth investing a first round pick (assuming with some degree of protection) for that delta between Barnes and Collins now and for the next few seasons.
Harrison Barnes impact numbers:
LEBRON: -1.0
RAPTOR: +2.7
LA-RAPM: -1.4
BPM: 0.5
VORP: 1.0
WS/48: .111
ON/Off Net Rtg: -7.9 (defense is 10.4 Rtg worse with him on the floor. 1500 minutes on vs 900 minute off btw)
John Collins impact numbers:
LEBRON: +1.2
RAPTOR: +5.4
LA-RAPM- +0.3
BPM: +2.0
VORP: +1.4
WS/48: .165
ON/Off Net Rtg: +3.7
Collins is 5 years younger, has multiple years of elite level production, is signed long-term for a reasonable contract and fits the age curve of Fox/Hali. This isn't a contest as Collins is significantly better now and still has potential upside being a few years from his age prime. I don't hesitate for one second if they demand a future FRP and still probably pull the trigger if we're allowed top 5 pick protection for this season.
LEBRON: -1.0
RAPTOR: +2.7
LA-RAPM: -1.4
BPM: 0.5
VORP: 1.0
WS/48: .111
ON/Off Net Rtg: -7.9 (defense is 10.4 Rtg worse with him on the floor. 1500 minutes on vs 900 minute off btw)
John Collins impact numbers:
LEBRON: +1.2
RAPTOR: +5.4
LA-RAPM- +0.3
BPM: +2.0
VORP: +1.4
WS/48: .165
ON/Off Net Rtg: +3.7
Collins is 5 years younger, has multiple years of elite level production, is signed long-term for a reasonable contract and fits the age curve of Fox/Hali. This isn't a contest as Collins is significantly better now and still has potential upside being a few years from his age prime. I don't hesitate for one second if they demand a future FRP and still probably pull the trigger if we're allowed top 5 pick protection for this season.
Getting a player with a projected WAR of 5 long term = trading for a player, who is projected to have a similar impact to...Harrison Barnes over the next five years. Barnes (Collins in place of him) is a good player, but for it to work, you need Fox to be a star. Otherwise it'll just be 5 more years of treadmilling hell.
I'd very much like you to enlighten us on the significance of the data you've provided. I'll go first. A VORP delta of 0.4 = 14.8% difference. Check the math. A replacement player gets a -2.7 rating, so the 0.4 delta = a 14% difference between Barnes and Collins. Is Collins better than Barnes? Sure. Is he on a different level? Nah.
Yea, there's a part of me that thinks it wouldn't be too unrealistic to see Monte go after Collins and Turner. Collins needs to play next to a legit 5. Why else would Atlanta sign Capella? I see a Holmes and Collins pairing as a defensive disaster where the Kings will be out rebounded even more and the interior will continue to be a layup line.
While I would prefer Collins over Grant I'm not sure why they would get him unless they have a plan with getting another stretch 4 and playing him at the 5. As a undersized 5 I think he would do better in general but it will kill the defense. I personally think the Kings should just wait till next season and sign Nurkic to fix the big man issue. The problem is and will always be Fox and the max deal until this is resolved all these trades are a massive waste of time.
Collins is what he is. He would be the second best scorer on the team by a long shot. His defense will be better than Bagley/Barnes at the 4 but probably not as good as Metu's. His rebounding only took a hit because they signed Capela. Before that he was an average to slightly above average rebounder.
If he was traded for a FRP and Barnes, you have to think about what is left to build on going forward. He's going to need a good defender next to him but he stretches the floor so now you don't need a 5 that can stretch. Holmes wouldn't work so you'd have to package Holmes, Buddy and potentially another FRP to have a lineup of Fox, Hali, ????, Collins and ?????. With the question marks being players that they could bring in via trades that would help the team and not just keep them in the same position they are now. I think it's a tall order. Give me a tank and first round picks please.
If he was traded for a FRP and Barnes, you have to think about what is left to build on going forward. He's going to need a good defender next to him but he stretches the floor so now you don't need a 5 that can stretch. Holmes wouldn't work so you'd have to package Holmes, Buddy and potentially another FRP to have a lineup of Fox, Hali, ????, Collins and ?????. With the question marks being players that they could bring in via trades that would help the team and not just keep them in the same position they are now. I think it's a tall order. Give me a tank and first round picks please.
Last edited:
