The Wizards are the highest scoring team in the league and also give up the most points. It'll be a boat race, which should serve Buddy Hield well.
My numbers have the Wiz winning 119 to 114.8. By adding +2 points to the Wiz for home court and -4 against the Wiz for the Kings recent, improving defense, I have the game at 117 to 114.8--a 2.16 point difference. Basically a toss up. That said, it looks like Bogi will be out, so without Bogi, I see the Wiz winning this game.
The relevant stats follow:
1. The biggest difference between the two teams is offensive assists. The margin is 27%. With the Kings tallying a -6% offensive assists relative to the league average while the Wiz are coming in at a +20%. Expect a ton of drive and assists from IT and Beal.
2. The remaining key stats are close. The only categories with a 10% or greater difference is assists defended and turnovers. The Kings defend assist better, coming in at -2.4% relative to the league average while the Wiz are giving up 9.2% more assists than the league average. And turnovers where the Kings turn the ball over 5% more than the league average while the Wiz are turning the ball over -6% less than the league average.
With Fox and Bogs, the higher than normal assists given up by the Wiz would be an area for the Kings to exploit. Without either in the lineup, it's going to be a loss opportunity.
The line is 3.5, which seems about right without Bogi. I just don't see how the Kings win without him tonight. Hope I'm wrong.
My numbers have the Wiz winning 119 to 114.8. By adding +2 points to the Wiz for home court and -4 against the Wiz for the Kings recent, improving defense, I have the game at 117 to 114.8--a 2.16 point difference. Basically a toss up. That said, it looks like Bogi will be out, so without Bogi, I see the Wiz winning this game.
The relevant stats follow:
1. The biggest difference between the two teams is offensive assists. The margin is 27%. With the Kings tallying a -6% offensive assists relative to the league average while the Wiz are coming in at a +20%. Expect a ton of drive and assists from IT and Beal.
2. The remaining key stats are close. The only categories with a 10% or greater difference is assists defended and turnovers. The Kings defend assist better, coming in at -2.4% relative to the league average while the Wiz are giving up 9.2% more assists than the league average. And turnovers where the Kings turn the ball over 5% more than the league average while the Wiz are turning the ball over -6% less than the league average.
With Fox and Bogs, the higher than normal assists given up by the Wiz would be an area for the Kings to exploit. Without either in the lineup, it's going to be a loss opportunity.
The line is 3.5, which seems about right without Bogi. I just don't see how the Kings win without him tonight. Hope I'm wrong.