Luka Doncic (the 'LET'S RE-LITIGATE THE PICK UNTO PERPETUITY~!' thread)

[Gguod]

Luka is one of those talents that is so seductive to the eyes. He brings the highlights. He's got the wow factor in spades. But he hasn't been particularly efficient this season, he's been an unwieldy sieve on the defensive end, and those that believe he's single-handedly changed the atmosphere in Dallas aren't really paying attention to the veteran factors that are actually leading to that team's success. Their bench unit has massively outperformed their starting unit for much of the season, and their team defense has been surprisingly stout. They also sport the third-easiest strength of schedule to this point in the season, and have been absolutely putrid on the road in spite of it. In other words, I can't help but wonder if Doncic and the Mavs aren't headed in the direction of a brick wall.

Now, don't get me wrong. Doncic is going to be good. He may even be great someday. He's got a James Harden-esque game and the modern NBA is designed specifically for players like that to succeed. But I think Luka's hype train is a little bit off the rails in terms of evaluating his impact this season. He's posting a barely-above-average PER of 15.9, and he's having to work hard as a scorer and playmaker due to his lack of athleticism. Hell, I manage to get exhausted just watching the guy try to create space in isolation. What happens when defenses adapt to his tendencies?

Perhaps the caution I'm exercising in my evaluation of both Luka and the Mavs is unwarranted. Perhaps they'll remain in the playoff mix deep into April, and perhaps Doncic will coast to ROY honors. But I remain skeptical. I will be curious to see if the Mavs can sustain their success as their schedule gets tougher, and I will be curious to see how teams key in on Luka (and his stepback 3, in particular) after they've played Dallas once or twice, and as they continue to scout his weaknesses. I think Doncic is a future all-star, but I also think that the hype is out of control relative to what the player is actually producing, once we move beyond the highlight reel.

Part of why Doncic hype is so high is that he is playing the most difficult role in Basketball (especially for a rookie) and the most valuable role: primary ball handling creator. Its very rare that rookies are succesful in that role. As I've said about Fox for example, rookie point guards and ball handling creators usually never contribute to winning basketball. Not in their first year.RPM, PER, AST-TO ratio, TS% ect are usually bad for ball handling creators in their first year, especially RPM.

The thing about Doncic that is rare is that he is 19 years old and already their best player, succeeding in a role that rookies usually struggle with. You say he hasnt been efficent. Considering him being a rookie playing extremely difficult role and having quite bad supporting cast, his efficency is surprisingly good and above expections. For example, .554 true shooting% is very good for him.

Because of his athletic limitations nobody expects him to be the next Lebron or even a Durant level superstar. What people saw on him pre draft is a player that plays the most valuable position (wing ball handler), who possesses the most valuable skills (creating off the dribble, shooting and playmaking) and an extremely smart basketball player. Those type of players are usually very hard to get since they are rare and therefore very expensive in the open market. Thats why many people even in here wanted him so much pre draft. Now that he is playing even better than anyone expected, his hype is naturally through the roof.

 

[Tetsujin]

As good as Luka has been, he has a bit of a tendency to just sorta disappear at times (Jokic syndrome?). I don't think he's had a rebound or assist in the second half.

 

[kingsboi]

the rookie battle between number one and number three wasn't much of a match up....zzzzz

 

[Tetsujin]

the rookie battle between number one and number three wasn't much of a match up....zzzzz

What people wanted: Luka v. Ayton.

What people got: Wes Matthews and Harrison Barnes v. TJ Warren and Trevor Ariza.

 

[Tetsujin]

Part of why Doncic hype is so high is that he is playing the most difficult role in Basketball (especially for a rookie) and the most valuable role: primary ball handling creator. Its very rare that rookies are succesful in that role. As I've said about Fox for example, rookie point guards and ball handling creators usually never contribute to winning basketball. Not in their first year.RPM, PER, AST-TO ratio, TS% ect are usually bad for ball handling creators in their first year, especially RPM.

The thing about Doncic that is rare is that he is 19 years old and already their best player, succeeding in a role that rookies usually struggle with. You say he hasnt been efficent. Considering him being a rookie playing extremely difficult role and having quite bad supporting cast, his efficency is surprisingly good and above expections. For example, .554 true shooting% is very good for him.

Because of his athletic limitations nobody expects him to be the next Lebron or even a Durant level superstar. What people saw on him pre draft is a player that plays the most valuable position (wing ball handler), who possesses the most valuable skills (creating off the dribble, shooting and playmaking) and an extremely smart basketball player. Those type of players are usually very hard to get since they are rare and therefore very expensive in the open market. Thats why many people even in here wanted him so much pre draft. Now that he is playing even better than anyone expected, his hype is naturally through the roof.

Which is all good and amazing and Luka has exceeded everyone's expectations but the main problem is that looking at Luka it's hard to see too many gaps in his game that he can really ever improve. Obviously I think he can fix his conditioning issues by working with a pro-NBA training staff but I don't see him ever becoming a good enough athlete to ever really reach the highest level of NBA player.

It's weird looking at a 20 year old and saying that he's close to hitting his roof but really aside from becoming a more consistent shooter there's not much more for him to maximize offensively. People assume he's going to continue to improve and improve like a typical raw NBA rookie but whereas most of these guys come into the league as a blank book made of varying degrees of paper, Luka might have come in as a book already written but still in the editing process.

He's probably the best rookie this year (though I personally think JJJ has been better and even more impactful for his team than Luka has) but I could see these rawer athletes like Bagley, JJJ, and Wendell surpassing him in a season or two.

 

[Kingsfan23]

As good as Luka has been, he has a bit of a tendency to just sorta disappear at times (Jokic syndrome?). I don't think he's had a rebound or assist in the second half.

Fox?

As big of a De’aaron fan that I am, and believer in his talent, 4 quarter intensity is what I need consistently (aside from any Luka discussion)

 

[Tetsujin]

Fox?

As big of a De’aaron fan that I am, and believer in his talent, 4 quarter intensity is what I need consistently (aside from any Luka discussion)

I agree with you on that front. The thing with Fox though is that he's a good enough defender now that when he's not dominating on the offensive end, he's still doing enough on the other end of the floor to not be a net negative.

Luka still has spans where he's outgunned defensively and just sorta watching on offense. Part of it might be schematic as Carlisle works to incorporate a unique talent like Luka into his system but it happens more than I'd like.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Which is all good and amazing and Luka has exceeded everyone's expectations but the main problem is that looking at Luka it's hard to see too many gaps in his game that he can really ever improve. Obviously I think he can fix his conditioning issues by working with a pro-NBA training staff but I don't see him ever becoming a good enough athlete to ever really reach the highest level of NBA player.

It's weird looking at a 20 year old and saying that he's close to hitting his roof but really aside from becoming a more consistent shooter there's not much more for him to maximize offensively. People assume he's going to continue to improve and improve like a typical raw NBA rookie but whereas most of these guys come into the league as a blank book made of varying degrees of paper, Luka might have come in as a book already written but still in the editing process.

He's probably the best rookie this year (though I personally think JJJ has been better and even more impactful for his team than Luka has) but I could see these rawer athletes like Bagley, JJJ, and Wendell surpassing him in a season or two.

I think you're making the same mistake that a lot of people make. Assuming that the more athletic guy automatically has more upside. There's no doubt that some of those guys could turn out to be better players, but I'm not sure I'm totally convinced of that either. Just because Luka is skilled in many areas right now, does not mean he can't become elite in those areas after a few years. The kid is 19. He can improve his athleticism somewhat, but I also think his lack of athleticism is way overblown anyway. What if he becomes a lights out shooter with elite ballhandling and passing at his size, and gets stronger/quicker in the process? Yeah he's never going to be LeBron, but let's be real, nobody is going to be LeBron. Harden is a better athlete, but how often does he actually use it? Really not that often because he doesn't need to. It's all footwork, IQ, reading the defense and making the right play.


Luka is a great kid, high character and has always been obsessed with basketball. I'd be very weary of falling for that idea that he has limited room to grow. I guess that's a compliment to him since he's already so skilled. I see a lot of people making similar arguments and I can't help but feel people are going down that route to make themselves feel better about not taking him. You're a smart guy Tetsujin so maybe you haven't fallen for this, but I definitely don't agree that he's not going to significantly improve upon his skillset and decision making. I'd be surprised if he doesn't turn into a multiple time all-star within a few years.

While I'm on the topic, I think people are also trying to make themselves feel better by saying that Fox/Doncic couldn't work together. Look at all the best teams in the NBA, they have multiple playmakers on the floor together, most of them currently better than Fox/Doncic. It just doesn't make sense that two unselfish, high character young guys who thrive under a fast pace scheme wouldn't be able to play together. Again I think it's people trying to convince themselves of something to make themselves feel better. If KD/Curry can co-exist (not even mentioning their other guys), Harden/Paul, Westbrook/George etc etc don't have a problem with it, then I seriously doubt Fox/Doncic would.

 

[Gguod]

Which is all good and amazing and Luka has exceeded everyone's expectations but the main problem is that looking at Luka it's hard to see too many gaps in his game that he can really ever improve. Obviously I think he can fix his conditioning issues by working with a pro-NBA training staff but I don't see him ever becoming a good enough athlete to ever really reach the highest level of NBA player.

It's weird looking at a 20 year old and saying that he's close to hitting his roof but really aside from becoming a more consistent shooter there's not much more for him to maximize offensively. People assume he's going to continue to improve and improve like a typical raw NBA rookie but whereas most of these guys come into the league as a blank book made of varying degrees of paper, Luka might have come in as a book already written but still in the editing process.

He's probably the best rookie this year (though I personally think JJJ has been better and even more impactful for his team than Luka has) but I could see these rawer athletes like Bagley, JJJ, and Wendell surpassing him in a season or two.

The fact that Luka doesnt have many gaps in his game at the age of 19 is not a negative thing and it doesnt mean that he doesnt have a lot of upside. It means that as he improves, he can become an awesome well rounded player without major flaws or weaknesses. Players who have major flaws on their game often doesnt ever improve them enough for thos flaws to become strengths or even skills that are usefull. Luka can improve all the things he is already fairly good at plus somewhat improve his athletisism.

When it comes to players like Ayton, Bagley or even somewhat JJJ, their role and skillset is already a big constraint considering their ceiling and value as a player. First of all, statustical data implies that big men who arent elite defenders are very rarely as impactfull and valuable than guards/wings that create offense. Also big man is a position where its easiest to find affordable contributors. You can find lob threats or rebounding specialist fairly cheap and you can be a winning team with that since the most valuable and important position/role is ball handling offensive creator. Considering the positional value and the value of skillsets, its hard to see guys like Wendell, Ayton, Bagley ect surpassing Doncic's value as a basketball player. It would require for those players to hit close to their ceiling and for Doncic to stop developing

 

[Joshoua]

I think you're making the same mistake that a lot of people make. Assuming that the more athletic guy automatically has more upside. There's no doubt that some of those guys could turn out to be better players, but I'm not sure I'm totally convinced of that either. Just because Luka is skilled in many areas right now, does not mean he can't become elite in those areas after a few years. The kid is 19. He can improve his athleticism somewhat, but I also think his lack of athleticism is way overblown anyway. What if he becomes a lights out shooter with elite ballhandling and passing at his size, and gets stronger/quicker in the process? Yeah he's never going to be LeBron, but let's be real, nobody is going to be LeBron. Harden is a better athlete, but how often does he actually use it? Really not that often because he doesn't need to. It's all footwork, IQ, reading the defense and making the right play.


Luka is a great kid, high character and has always been obsessed with basketball. I'd be very weary of falling for that idea that he has limited room to grow. I guess that's a compliment to him since he's already so skilled. I see a lot of people making similar arguments and I can't help but feel people are going down that route to make themselves feel better about not taking him. You're a smart guy Tetsujin so maybe you haven't fallen for this, but I definitely don't agree that he's not going to significantly improve upon his skillset and decision making. I'd be surprised if he doesn't turn into a multiple time all-star within a few years.

While I'm on the topic, I think people are also trying to make themselves feel better by saying that Fox/Doncic couldn't work together. Look at all the best teams in the NBA, they have multiple playmakers on the floor together, most of them currently better than Fox/Doncic. It just doesn't make sense that two unselfish, high character young guys who thrive under a fast pace scheme wouldn't be able to play together. Again I think it's people trying to convince themselves of something to make themselves feel better. If KD/Curry can co-exist (not even mentioning their other guys), Harden/Paul, Westbrook/George etc etc don't have a problem with it, then I seriously doubt Fox/Doncic would.

It’s unfortunate I can only like this one time but the 2 points is what triggers me about the Luka debates.

1. That he can’t get that much better or that his cieling isn’t as high cause he’s not a supreme athlete. Which is utter nonsense

2. People convincing themselves that fox/Luka couldn’t work like this is the Stone Age and you have 1 ball handler at a time. It’s literally embarrassing when you see this claimed than look every and see 99% of successful teams have multiple playmakers. With Bogie on the bench Luka literally fits like a glove next too Fox/Buddy/Bjlecia/WCS we’d have 2 playmakers in the floor at all times. Also they point to the trash known as DSJ and say look he’s doing bad no way he’d work with fox. DSJ has his own problems I don’t see him being a starter on a winning team Carslie is constantly taking him out with his dumb shot selection and TO

 

[SLAB]

The “Luka is nearly as good as he’ll ever be” argument just seems nuts to me. A 19 year old kid won’t develop any more, simply because he isn’t a great athlete? Whaaaaaaa

 

[Padrino]

I think you're making the same mistake that a lot of people make. Assuming that the more athletic guy automatically has more upside. There's no doubt that some of those guys could turn out to be better players, but I'm not sure I'm totally convinced of that either. Just because Luka is skilled in many areas right now, does not mean he can't become elite in those areas after a few years. The kid is 19. He can improve his athleticism somewhat, but I also think his lack of athleticism is way overblown anyway. What if he becomes a lights out shooter with elite ballhandling and passing at his size, and gets stronger/quicker in the process? Yeah he's never going to be LeBron, but let's be real, nobody is going to be LeBron. Harden is a better athlete, but how often does he actually use it? Really not that often because he doesn't need to. It's all footwork, IQ, reading the defense and making the right play.


Luka is a great kid, high character and has always been obsessed with basketball. I'd be very weary of falling for that idea that he has limited room to grow. I guess that's a compliment to him since he's already so skilled. I see a lot of people making similar arguments and I can't help but feel people are going down that route to make themselves feel better about not taking him. You're a smart guy Tetsujin so maybe you haven't fallen for this, but I definitely don't agree that he's not going to significantly improve upon his skillset and decision making. I'd be surprised if he doesn't turn into a multiple time all-star within a few years.

While I'm on the topic, I think people are also trying to make themselves feel better by saying that Fox/Doncic couldn't work together. Look at all the best teams in the NBA, they have multiple playmakers on the floor together, most of them currently better than Fox/Doncic. It just doesn't make sense that two unselfish, high character young guys who thrive under a fast pace scheme wouldn't be able to play together. Again I think it's people trying to convince themselves of something to make themselves feel better. If KD/Curry can co-exist (not even mentioning their other guys), Harden/Paul, Westbrook/George etc etc don't have a problem with it, then I seriously doubt Fox/Doncic would.

Harden harnesses his athleticism on a regular basis with respect to dribble penetration and getting to the rim. Footwork and IQ certainly play a role, but rookie Harden and rookie Doncic are worlds apart with respect to the percentage of their shots taken at the rim, as well as their respective free throw rates.

Doncic's lack of athleticism is preventing him from making much of an impact in the lane, and unless he gets into world class shape and discovers a way to get by more athletic NBA wing defenders, he'll never be in Harden's class as a scorer or as a playmaker. Dribble penetration is more than half the battle in the contemporary NBA. Without it, the three-point revolution is dead-on-arrival.

I cannot speak for anyone else, but I don't offer my critique of Luka Doncic to make myself feel better about the Kings passing on him. I genuinely see flaws in his game that preclude the "future greatness" that hype-believers are ascribing to him less than halfway through his rookie season, and I genuinely believe that Marvin Bagley is the better long-term prospect.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Harden harnesses his athleticism on a regular basis with respect to dribble penetration and getting to the rim. Footwork and IQ certainly play a role, but rookie Harden and rookie Doncic are worlds apart with respect to the percentage of their shots taken at the rim, as well as their respective free throw rates.

Doncic's lack of athleticism is preventing him from making much of an impact in the lane, and unless he gets into world class shape and discovers a way to get by more athletic NBA wing defenders, he'll never be in Harden's class as a scorer or as a playmaker. Dribble penetration is more than half the battle in the contemporary NBA. Without it, the three-point revolution is dead-on-arrival.

I cannot speak for anyone else, but I don't offer my critique of Luka Doncic to make myself feel better about the Kings passing on him. I genuinely see flaws in his game that preclude the "future greatness" that hype-believers are ascribing to him less than halfway through his rookie season, and I genuinely believe that Marvin Bagley is the better long-term prospect.

That is a great rebuttal, but I expect nothing less from you.

I agree with a lot of this. I don't think Doncic will ever be in Harden's league when it comes to scoring, but I do believe he could be on his level when it comes to playmaking. Dribble penetration is incredibly important (also part of the reason that Fox has improved so much, he's realised he can get into the paint whenever he wants). Doncic will likely never be elite at getting to the rim. You can live with that given what he brings apart from that. He just needs to be crafty enough to keep the defence honest, which he already is. Don't expect him to be elite at it, but I do expect him to get better.

I do take you at your word re the last paragraph. I just don't believe others have put the same amount of thought into it. Marvin may well have more upside. I'm a huge fan of MB, go back to my posts about him while he was at Duke to confirm. He's a baller and has the right attitude to be an absolute star. Doncic absolutely has flaws, no doubt about that. I think it depends what your expectations are. I don't live stateside so maybe the hype has gone too far. I just think he's an all-star level player (at his peak) who will make his team better. I'm removed from a lot of what you guys read because I don't read national opinions, they're absolute garbage and hot-takes most of the time. But as someone who has watched Doncic for a while (and was also a skeptic for a while), I've learned that the kid doesn't let up. He just continues to exceed expectations.

I'm fine with where we are. This season has been awesome. I'll watch Doncic with great interest, but I'm super excited about Marvin. Both kids are ballers and likely future all-stars. This discussion will be great to revisit in 3 years.

For reference, when I speak of Luka's IQ/Footwork, here is what I'm talking about:

I haven't seen a rookie ever do something like this. That is what you call someone who is a step ahead of everyone, and he's a kid.

BTW, Padrino, please post more. The forum is better with your contributions.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I haven't seen a rookie ever do something like this. That is what you call someone who is a step ahead of everyone, and he's a kid.

Is he really a rookie, or is he like South American footballer who wows in his first season in the Premiere league after getting seasoned first league competition in the top flight of his home continent?

Because that's really what is happening here. It's just not the same as a kid coming from the college ranks who has never played against competition more than a year or two older at any time. He's a seasoned pro. American sports we love to pretend other leagues don't exist. That's why aside from MLS we name all our championships the "world champions".

 

[Joshoua]

Is he really a rookie, or is he like South American footballer who wows in his first season in the Premiere league after getting seasoned first league competition in the top flight of his home continent?

Because that's really what is happening here. It's just not the same as a kid coming from the college ranks who has never played against competition more than a year or two older at any time. He's a seasoned pro. American sports we love to pretend other leagues don't exist. That's why aside from MLS we name all our championships the "world champions".

Last time I checked he was a rookie. During pre draft weren’t people saying the euro league wasn’t impressive and guys like Ayton would dominate.

 

[rainmaker]

Is he really a rookie, or is he like South American footballer who wows in his first season in the Premiere league after getting seasoned first league competition in the top flight of his home continent?

Because that's really what is happening here. It's just not the same as a kid coming from the college ranks who has never played against competition more than a year or two older at any time. He's a seasoned pro. American sports we love to pretend other leagues don't exist. That's why aside from MLS we name all our championships the "world champions".

Speaking of soccer, this brings up another point.

Say you have a 19 yr old winger or attacking mid, incredibly high IQ and awareness, full package skill set, creativity and vision, and steps on the pitch in a top league and immediately looks one of if not the top player at his age globally.

Does anyone is soccer say "limited upside"?

Nope. It translates to incredibly high upside as a player with the full arsenal can improve on all the weapons he has.

Only in basketball do fans look at players with half the skillset and say, more upside. It's foolish. It's another way of saying, this player doesn't have near the all around skill set of player A or B and needs to add a lot more to his game.

Very few ever do as much of that is developed younger.

It's like suggesting if some 19 yr old adds a left foot, ability to dribble 1v1 and improves composure in the final 3rd, he'll be Neymar.

He won't.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Speaking of soccer, this brings up another point.

Say you have a 19 yr old winger or attacking mid, incredibly high IQ and awareness, full package skill set, creativity and vision, and steps on the pitch in a top league and immediately looks one of if not the top player at his age globally.

Does anyone is soccer say "limited upside"?

Nope. It translates to incredibly high upside as a player with the full arsenal can improve on all the weapons he has.

Only in basketball do fans look at players with half the skillset and say, more upside. It's foolish. It's another way of saying, this player doesn't have near the all around skill set of player A or B and needs to add a lot more to his game.

Very few ever do as much of that is developed younger.

It's like suggesting if some 19 yr old adds a left foot, ability to dribble 1v1 and improves composure in the final 3rd, he'll be Neymar.

He won't.

Here’s the problem with your take...you just described Ronaldo vs every other 19 year old wonderlind save Messi...who had an entire system built around him. Ronaldo developed and has been amazing in three different top leagues, switched positions multiple times, and had all different kinds of teammates/coaches/systems. Messi has been catered to and is highly cultivated. All other players of that stripe ultimately settle a tier below. You referenced Neymar, whom I agree never progressed beyond the age of 25-ish. He’s still been a top 5-ish player for his entire European career.

Luka will need to be catered to...a difficult task with a salary cap. This is not the BS half-measure of FFP, but real financial restrictions. Bagley, OTOH, is a young, sleek Ronaldo just waiting to blossom.

Luka is Wesley Sneijder or Eden Hazard...great when all the pieces fit around him, but ultimately will be highly dependent on FO/owner/coach to craft the proper team and system.

 

[kingsboi]

Here’s the problem with your take...you just described Ronaldo vs every other 19 year old wonderlind save Messi...who had an entire system built around him. Ronaldo developed and has been amazing in three different top leagues, switched positions multiple times, and had all different kinds of teammates/coaches/systems. Messi has been catered to and is highly cultivated. All other players of that stripe ultimately settle a tier below. You referenced Neymar, whom I agree never progressed beyond the age of 25-ish. He’s still been a top 5-ish player for his entire European career.

Luka will need to be catered to...a difficult task with a salary cap. This is not the BS half-measure of FFP, but real financial restrictions. Bagley, OTOH, is a young, sleek Ronaldo just waiting to blossom.

Luka is Wesley Sneijder or Eden Hazard...great when all the pieces fit around him, but ultimately will be highly dependent on FO/owner/coach to craft the proper team and system.

while we are on the topic, Neymar is one of the most overrated players in the last ten years in my opinion

 

[63royals]

while we are on the topic, Neymar is one of the most overrated players in the last ten years in my opinion

#1 in my Top Drama Queens rankings.

 

[Kingsfan23]

A moment to hope my man Bagley is ok with this injury

As much as we litigate the pick we are still lucky to have a 19 year old with his upside.

Let’s assume the mild sprain is indeed what it is

 

[Dime Dropper]

Here’s the problem with your take...you just described Ronaldo vs every other 19 year old wonderlind save Messi...who had an entire system built around him. Ronaldo developed and has been amazing in three different top leagues, switched positions multiple times, and had all different kinds of teammates/coaches/systems. Messi has been catered to and is highly cultivated. All other players of that stripe ultimately settle a tier below. You referenced Neymar, whom I agree never progressed beyond the age of 25-ish. He’s still been a top 5-ish player for his entire European career.

Luka will need to be catered to...a difficult task with a salary cap. This is not the BS half-measure of FFP, but real financial restrictions. Bagley, OTOH, is a young, sleek Ronaldo just waiting to blossom.

Luka is Wesley Sneijder or Eden Hazard...great when all the pieces fit around him, but ultimately will be highly dependent on FO/owner/coach to craft the proper team and system.

You have to be joking. Stick Messi into any team in the world and he still would have been the best. Barca were built around him because he is/was incredible, that's not a negative. That Barca team could have been built around Iniesta/Xavi or any number of players, but it was Messi because he was head and shoulders above everyone else.

You're trying to create a comparison in order to pigeonhole Doncic. It doesn't work and it's not an apt comparison. Rainmaker's take was on the money.

EDIT: And btw, your Ronaldo point actually backs up what Rainmaker said, not the other way around. I'm a United fan and watched every single game since he arrived as a kid, and Ronaldo had every trick in the book as an 18 year old. He just improved upon his skillset and decision-making. Bagley is never going to reach the heights of Ronaldo in basketball, it's just not going to happen. Unless we have a top 5 player of all time on our hands, which it doesn't look like.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Is he really a rookie, or is he like South American footballer who wows in his first season in the Premiere league after getting seasoned first league competition in the top flight of his home continent?

Because that's really what is happening here. It's just not the same as a kid coming from the college ranks who has never played against competition more than a year or two older at any time. He's a seasoned pro. American sports we love to pretend other leagues don't exist. That's why aside from MLS we name all our championships the "world champions".

He's a 19 year old rookie. Rookie doesn't mean someone who's never player pro before. College basketball is basically professional anyway, they just don't pay their players. I'm not sure what the overall point here is unless you're saying that having player professionally prior to the NBA limits your upside, and I don't see why it would.

His pro experience definitely helped him prepare for the NBA, if that's your point. But it's not as if a 19 year old isn't going to improve just because he has played professionally.

 

[sono]

The “Luka is nearly as good as he’ll ever be” argument just seems nuts to me. A 19 year old kid won’t develop any more, simply because he isn’t a great athlete? Whaaaaaaa

Lol, I know... just off the top of my head some good non athletic players: Steve Nash, Steph Curry, Andre Miller, James Harden, Peja Stojakovic, Brad Miller, Vlade Divac, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki. Larry Bird, Z-Bo, Boogie... and many more. Non athletic greats compensate their deficiency with good fundamentals, overall skills, high IQ and playmaking/creativity. Luka possesses most of them if not all. Time will tell, yet, I like Padrino's take on Luka, he's got a good point. It'll be exciting to keep an eye on him for the next few years.

 

[SLAB]

Lol, I know... just off the top of my head some good non athletic players: Steve Nash, Steph Curry, Andre Miller, James Harden, Peja Stojakovic, Brad Miller, Vlade Divac, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki. Larry Bird, Z-Bo, Boogie... and many more. Non athletic greats compensate their deficiency with good fundamentals, overall skills, high IQ and playmaking/creativity. Luka possesses most of them if not all. Time will tell, yet, I like Padrino's take on Luka, he's got a good point. It'll be exciting to keep an eye on him for the next few years.

They all basically plateaued after their rookie years, right?

 

[kingsfan1984]

If any teams should be litigating and relitigsting this draft it should be Phoenix and Atlanta. They both could have used Luka FAR more than the Kings.

BOOM

This right here.

Was thinking the same thing for a few weeks and waiting to see if any articles come out castigating the suns or Hawks.

Especially the hawks!! Ayton is understandable, but how on earth can one justify Young over Luka?

 

[ESP47]

Is he really a rookie, or is he like South American footballer who wows in his first season in the Premiere league after getting seasoned first league competition in the top flight of his home continent?

Because that's really what is happening here. It's just not the same as a kid coming from the college ranks who has never played against competition more than a year or two older at any time. He's a seasoned pro. American sports we love to pretend other leagues don't exist. That's why aside from MLS we name all our championships the "world champions".

When a Euro rookie comes over here and plays well, it's because they've been playing in a professional league for years and have the upper hand on NCAA players.

When a Euro rookie comes over here and doesn't play well, it's because the competition in the NBA is better and you need to be bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic to succeed.

It's whatever turns out to be the most convenient excuse at the time.

 

[Joshoua]

When a Euro rookie comes over here and plays well, it's because they've been playing in a professional league for years and have the upper hand on NCAA players.

When a Euro rookie comes over here and doesn't play well, it's because the competition in the NBA is better and you need to be bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic to succeed.

It's whatever turns out to be the most convenient excuse at the time.

Haha and this is exactly what they used against him don’t ever forget it’s better to dominate NCAA than euro league. That’s until know when he’s doing good and it’s hes been a pro, pathetic

 

[SLAB]

^^ the goalpost moving is hilarious. Lol

 

[rainmaker]

Here’s the problem with your take...you just described Ronaldo vs every other 19 year old wonderlind save Messi...who had an entire system built around him. Ronaldo developed and has been amazing in three different top leagues, switched positions multiple times, and had all different kinds of teammates/coaches/systems. Messi has been catered to and is highly cultivated. All other players of that stripe ultimately settle a tier below. You referenced Neymar, whom I agree never progressed beyond the age of 25-ish. He’s still been a top 5-ish player for his entire European career.

Whether Messi, Ronaldo or Neymar, they had the full skill set as teens. The question was how much of that could they translate to higher levels. The the wide ranging pure skill set and the type of players they were was already clear. Neymar displayed the same exact type of game back as a teen in Brazil well before arriving at Barca. It was just a less mature version of what he became. Ronaldo it was the same as a teen, but it took Fergie molding and teaching him to use his skill set effectively in the Prem.

Luka's skill set is akin to a creative attacking mid. It's the whole package. He has the vision, the creativity, can go either direction, the vision, the IQ, the ability to draw attention and create for others. Those are the most sought after types in either sport as you build around them.

Other types don't usually later develop that type of skill set as again, you usually have already displayed it.

That's why Bagley's ceiling projects lower. At no level has he displayed the full package required to have the offense run thru him as the #1 option. When he gets the ball his options are more limited than a young Cousins or Davis as an example.

There's a distinction between what you can improve on and what type of player you are. A winger can improve his crossing and quick passing. A striker can improve his finishing/runs. Just as Marvin can improve his face up jumper and refine his post game.

But adding the IQ/awareness, the 1v1 skill set and vision to be a #1 option is a different story and the large majority of the time happens when younger. That's why defensive mids rarely later become attacking mids or spot up shooters become PG's. Webber had a #1 option skill set. Peja did not. Both improved on the skill sets they had when they were teens but the types of player they were was obvious.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I wanted Doncic because of his pro experience, I'm not moving the friggin goal post. I wanted the guy that would come in NBA ready because I saw a team in dire need that was still 2-3 years away from a 40 win season.

But that was always a legit question even among the die-hards was how much growth potential he has compared to the average raw American college prospect.

Not sure why I got suckered back in here.