Willie Cauley-Stein: the 2018-19 Season watch
- Thread starter Ozymandias
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I don’t think you can just compare rebound numbers per game average. When comparing stats between players there is a whole lot goes into it including style of play (not just pace of play). The list has a lot of “old school” style centers, particularly at the top. They hang out in the paint, rarely guard on the perimeter and for the most part don’t run the floor hard.
Also, you need to take into account minutes played not just games played. PER36 helps there, but it is less than perfect especially the further away the actual minutes gets from the PER 36. Players with fewer minutes might have a high PER36 because of the competition they are facing possibly just bench players.
However, in this list, while most play more minutes than Willie, no one plays less than 25 minutes. Here is the list modified to reflect PER36. Most players are listed as centers, forwards or combos. As you can see, “old school” centers at the top.
Antetokounmpo is in a league by himself as regards position, he is listed PG, SG, SF, and PF, surprisingly not center.
Beginning with the super star Embid are the “new NBA centers” including stars Davis and Towns. Interestingly enough, other than Embid, Willie’s PER36 numbers are not too far off from their numbers. He is within a little over a rebound away from Capela, whom everyone was enamored with a while back and scores 3 more points than Capela. He is only 1-1/2 rebounds away from potential MVP Davis while scoring 3 points less. Not to say he is as good as either, but just comparing stats.
Willie has shown improvement every year and has made a big leap this year, as he said he would. He said that last year would not be his breakout year, but this year would be. He still has things to improve on including rebounding. But, realistically, with the Kings style of play, you are probably only talking a couple more rebounds a game, 12 to 13 PER36 would be great with the style this team plays and with style Joerger has Willie playing.
If they wanted an old school 16 rebounds a game, then they should have kept Papagiannis. If they kept him and parked him in the paint and gave him Willie’s minutes he would probably average 12 points and 15 rebounds and 2 or 3 blocks a game. What do you think the Kings record would be right now with Papa as the starting center instead of Willie?
Stats (Current as of 11/15) from:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
Also, you need to take into account minutes played not just games played. PER36 helps there, but it is less than perfect especially the further away the actual minutes gets from the PER 36. Players with fewer minutes might have a high PER36 because of the competition they are facing possibly just bench players.
However, in this list, while most play more minutes than Willie, no one plays less than 25 minutes. Here is the list modified to reflect PER36. Most players are listed as centers, forwards or combos. As you can see, “old school” centers at the top.
Antetokounmpo is in a league by himself as regards position, he is listed PG, SG, SF, and PF, surprisingly not center.
Beginning with the super star Embid are the “new NBA centers” including stars Davis and Towns. Interestingly enough, other than Embid, Willie’s PER36 numbers are not too far off from their numbers. He is within a little over a rebound away from Capela, whom everyone was enamored with a while back and scores 3 more points than Capela. He is only 1-1/2 rebounds away from potential MVP Davis while scoring 3 points less. Not to say he is as good as either, but just comparing stats.
Willie has shown improvement every year and has made a big leap this year, as he said he would. He said that last year would not be his breakout year, but this year would be. He still has things to improve on including rebounding. But, realistically, with the Kings style of play, you are probably only talking a couple more rebounds a game, 12 to 13 PER36 would be great with the style this team plays and with style Joerger has Willie playing.
If they wanted an old school 16 rebounds a game, then they should have kept Papagiannis. If they kept him and parked him in the paint and gave him Willie’s minutes he would probably average 12 points and 15 rebounds and 2 or 3 blocks a game. What do you think the Kings record would be right now with Papa as the starting center instead of Willie?
Stats (Current as of 11/15) from:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
link to nba stats
my understanding is that this stat means percent of missed shots rebounded while player was on floor.
my understanding is that this stat means percent of missed shots rebounded while player was on floor.
Maybe I am alone on what I what from our centers but here it is.
I hope to see a stop to the constant second, third and fourth second chances the opponents are getting every night.
I would like to see some offensive rebounds from someone other than our power forwards.
I want to stop worrying about who the opponent center is and do we have anybody that can guard or score on them?
Yes if we can continue to run and wear down the opponents center thats great but it’s hard to believe we can’t do that with someone else also. So what ever happens will not be for awhile so let’s see where he takes us into the new year.
I hope to see a stop to the constant second, third and fourth second chances the opponents are getting every night.
I would like to see some offensive rebounds from someone other than our power forwards.
I want to stop worrying about who the opponent center is and do we have anybody that can guard or score on them?
Yes if we can continue to run and wear down the opponents center thats great but it’s hard to believe we can’t do that with someone else also. So what ever happens will not be for awhile so let’s see where he takes us into the new year.
Even if he becomes a redundant piece in a couple years when Bagley and Giles are all grown up, you worry about that problem then and don't hemorrhage talent now for a "maybe" down the line. The one thing Vlade has done an excellent job at is keeping the cap sheet clean. So as these core pieces are up for extensions, we won't have any tough decisions to make money wise; just keep the core together.
2019- WCS
2020-Bogdan/Buddy
2021- Fox and Giles (and JJ if he somehow turns it around)
2022-Bagley
The way this works out has been a big reason why I've been so for us trying to add another expensive piece while Fox isn't costing us a max contract. I think WCS, Buddy and Bogdan probably cost...somewhere around $50mil for all 3 per season once they get their extensions, so adding a piece like a Porter won't make a difference for us long-term and. The important year to make sure we have the money is 2021 when Fox gets a likely max deal and make sure we have enough if Giles hits as a player ($10mil+). Anything we do in the meantime really doesn't matter THAT much.
I think my limit would be 22 mill/season. Wouldn't be thrilled about it, but that's not crazy out of line for what his comparison's got and there's no roadblock to us affording to keep him. What we certainly can't do is let talent keep walking when it comes time to pay them (Tyreke, IT) for nothing in return.
2019- WCS
2020-Bogdan/Buddy
2021- Fox and Giles (and JJ if he somehow turns it around)
2022-Bagley
The way this works out has been a big reason why I've been so for us trying to add another expensive piece while Fox isn't costing us a max contract. I think WCS, Buddy and Bogdan probably cost...somewhere around $50mil for all 3 per season once they get their extensions, so adding a piece like a Porter won't make a difference for us long-term and. The important year to make sure we have the money is 2021 when Fox gets a likely max deal and make sure we have enough if Giles hits as a player ($10mil+). Anything we do in the meantime really doesn't matter THAT much.
I think my limit would be 22 mill/season. Wouldn't be thrilled about it, but that's not crazy out of line for what his comparison's got and there's no roadblock to us affording to keep him. What we certainly can't do is let talent keep walking when it comes time to pay them (Tyreke, IT) for nothing in return.
I don't think this comes close to the whole story with rebounding. It doesn't give as much of an indication of how much disparity there is between head-to-head matchups with WCS and some of these centers. We just saw Aldridge outrebound WCS by 5, Towns mauled him by almost quadrupling his output, Adams doubled WCS's output in rebounds. Jokic doubled WCS's output in rebounds. WCS has not out-rebounded ONE opposing center so far this year except for Mahinmi with the Wizards. It's not all about the rebounds you get, it's also about the rebounds you don't allow your opponent to get.
I actually dont recall that many times this year when wcs got straight up beat going for a rebound for lack of effort but maybe I havent been paying attention to that enough. What I do know if willie is a unique player so I think its important to analyze his stats with context, hes been a high impact player thus far and thats what matters imo. How much does he elevate the team? Is he easily replaceable? Those are the important questions to ask
You make an excellent point, and sort of beat me to it. People get a little too caught up in comparing stat for stat with other players that share the position. What's important is how does a player fit on his team. Is he an important part of the chemistry and the style the team plays. Take Willie away, and plug in a player like Steven Adams, and are we still as successful? Maybe, but I think maybe not. Chemistry and fit are very important parts of the success of the team. Willie fits what this team is trying to do, but is it enough to give him a big payday?
In Willie's case, I would say yes. Other than perhaps Bagley in the future, there is no one else on the team that you could plug in at the center position that can do what Willie does. Bagley is not even close to doing what Willie does on defense, and physically, he can't match up with the stronger centers in the league. I don't want the team to overpay for Willie, but I think you do have to pay an amount that's equable to his stats, and his results.
If you look at the players above Willie on that list, most of them couldn't run up and down the floor like Willie does for an entire game. I think it would be difficult to find a player that can do everything Willie does, and still be one of the top rebounders in the league. Having said all that, I do think Willie will get better and stronger, and if so, I certainly want him to be a part of the Kings future.
In Willie's case, I would say yes. Other than perhaps Bagley in the future, there is no one else on the team that you could plug in at the center position that can do what Willie does. Bagley is not even close to doing what Willie does on defense, and physically, he can't match up with the stronger centers in the league. I don't want the team to overpay for Willie, but I think you do have to pay an amount that's equable to his stats, and his results.
If you look at the players above Willie on that list, most of them couldn't run up and down the floor like Willie does for an entire game. I think it would be difficult to find a player that can do everything Willie does, and still be one of the top rebounders in the league. Having said all that, I do think Willie will get better and stronger, and if so, I certainly want him to be a part of the Kings future.
Again, you need to look at a fair comparison rather than complete game stats. If you’re going to do a head-to-head then you need to do your research properly and compare when they actually share the court. I’ve actually been compiling head-to-head comparisons for many of the games. I slowed down after the first few games and got tired of counting minutes. I use the ESPN play-by-play string.
For instance, during the time that Willie and Aldridge actually shared the court (I didn’t count the minutes, but it is easy enough to determine when they share the court), Aldridge had 15 rebounds to Willie’s 12, a difference of 3 not 5. Willie outscored him 11 to 8, Willie had 3 assists, 0 turnovers, Aldridge had 0 assists and 4 turnovers. Aldridge also had 2 blocks to Willie’s 0. A lot of different areas of skill areas. Who is to say which are more important?
As for Adams doubling Willie’s rebounds, yes technically he did. Willie and Adams shared the court for 13:42 (counted minutes for that game). Adams had 4 rebounds to Willie’s 2. But Willie had 11 points to Adams 3. Willie had 1 assist to Adam’s 0, but Adams did have 3 blocks to Willie’s 0. Adams was on the court 20:42 without Willie and during that time he had 10 rebounds, and 7 points.
It is not true that Jokic doubled Willie’s rebounds head-to-head. They shared the court for 18:06. Jokic had 7 rebounds to Willie’s 5. They both scored 9 points. Jokic had 4 assists and 3 turnovers. Willie had 1 assist and 0 turnovers. During the 5:11 that Jokic was on the floor without Willie, he had 5 rebounds and 5 points. Almost a point and a rebound a minute.
I got lazy and didn’t compile Towns vs. Willie. But who won the game? I would be interested to see if he really quadrupled Willie’s rebounds when they actually were on the floor together. Towns played 40 minutes to Willie’s 29. Maybe Towns got all 19 rebounds during whatever time he and Willie shared the court. Why don’t you dig through the play-by-play and let us know?
These are all elite, top level players centers. And it is true that for the most part, they probably had the edge in the head-to-head, but not nearly as bad as you want to make out. Willie is not at their level and should not be expected to be there yet.
Also, their numbers are significantly better (per minute) when they are on the floor without Willie.
There are other contributions besides rebounds. The style of play also comes into play in how well a player rebounds. Some people are just focused on Willie’s rebounding and will never be satisfied with it. Even when he has good rebound numbers, they accuse him of “stealing” rebounds from his teammates, or he got so many because they just fell into his hands, or even if he gets a dozen. they say he should have had twice as many, never enough. His other contributions are ignored as their only focus is on the rebound numbers.
I'm pretty much done with this discussion, it's just a waste of time.
For instance, during the time that Willie and Aldridge actually shared the court (I didn’t count the minutes, but it is easy enough to determine when they share the court), Aldridge had 15 rebounds to Willie’s 12, a difference of 3 not 5. Willie outscored him 11 to 8, Willie had 3 assists, 0 turnovers, Aldridge had 0 assists and 4 turnovers. Aldridge also had 2 blocks to Willie’s 0. A lot of different areas of skill areas. Who is to say which are more important?
As for Adams doubling Willie’s rebounds, yes technically he did. Willie and Adams shared the court for 13:42 (counted minutes for that game). Adams had 4 rebounds to Willie’s 2. But Willie had 11 points to Adams 3. Willie had 1 assist to Adam’s 0, but Adams did have 3 blocks to Willie’s 0. Adams was on the court 20:42 without Willie and during that time he had 10 rebounds, and 7 points.
It is not true that Jokic doubled Willie’s rebounds head-to-head. They shared the court for 18:06. Jokic had 7 rebounds to Willie’s 5. They both scored 9 points. Jokic had 4 assists and 3 turnovers. Willie had 1 assist and 0 turnovers. During the 5:11 that Jokic was on the floor without Willie, he had 5 rebounds and 5 points. Almost a point and a rebound a minute.
I got lazy and didn’t compile Towns vs. Willie. But who won the game? I would be interested to see if he really quadrupled Willie’s rebounds when they actually were on the floor together. Towns played 40 minutes to Willie’s 29. Maybe Towns got all 19 rebounds during whatever time he and Willie shared the court. Why don’t you dig through the play-by-play and let us know?
These are all elite, top level players centers. And it is true that for the most part, they probably had the edge in the head-to-head, but not nearly as bad as you want to make out. Willie is not at their level and should not be expected to be there yet.
Also, their numbers are significantly better (per minute) when they are on the floor without Willie.
There are other contributions besides rebounds. The style of play also comes into play in how well a player rebounds. Some people are just focused on Willie’s rebounding and will never be satisfied with it. Even when he has good rebound numbers, they accuse him of “stealing” rebounds from his teammates, or he got so many because they just fell into his hands, or even if he gets a dozen. they say he should have had twice as many, never enough. His other contributions are ignored as their only focus is on the rebound numbers.
I'm pretty much done with this discussion, it's just a waste of time.
Not to nic pic, but every rebound you get is a rebound you don't allow your opponent to get, so it is about the rebounds you get...
And as I mentioned before, when you play at the pace the Kings play at, taking shots sometimes with no more than 10 seconds gone off the shot clock, many times the Kings don't have anyone, or at max, only one player under the basket. The Kings by the way are 1st in the NBA at pace at the moment and the Hawks are now in 2nd place. I noted that some people are making our lack of offensive rebounding an issue. I was curious so I did a little research.
Kings: Pace 1st - rpg 45.2 - orpg 9.6 - drpg 35.4
Hawks: Pace 2nd - rpg 44.1 - orpg 9.5 - drpg 34.6
Pelicans: Pace 4th - rpg 48.0 - orpg 11.8 - drpg 36.2
76er's: Pace 6th - rpg 48.8 - orpg 10.1 - drpg 38.7
Raptors: Pace 9th - rpg 46.7 - orpg 10.8 - drpg 35.9
As you can see in almost all cases only one offensive rebound or less separates all those teams. The Nuggets, one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the league, averaging 12.1 offensive boards a game, is last in pace. In general though, most teams are far better at defensive rebounding than they are offensive rebounding.
And as I mentioned before, when you play at the pace the Kings play at, taking shots sometimes with no more than 10 seconds gone off the shot clock, many times the Kings don't have anyone, or at max, only one player under the basket. The Kings by the way are 1st in the NBA at pace at the moment and the Hawks are now in 2nd place. I noted that some people are making our lack of offensive rebounding an issue. I was curious so I did a little research. Kings: Pace 1st - rpg 45.2 - orpg 9.6 - drpg 35.4
Hawks: Pace 2nd - rpg 44.1 - orpg 9.5 - drpg 34.6
Pelicans: Pace 4th - rpg 48.0 - orpg 11.8 - drpg 36.2
76er's: Pace 6th - rpg 48.8 - orpg 10.1 - drpg 38.7
Raptors: Pace 9th - rpg 46.7 - orpg 10.8 - drpg 35.9
As you can see in almost all cases only one offensive rebound or less separates all those teams. The Nuggets, one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the league, averaging 12.1 offensive boards a game, is last in pace. In general though, most teams are far better at defensive rebounding than they are offensive rebounding.
As you pointed out, you have to dig in the dirt a little to really get the entire picture. I remember when I was at summer league, and everyone was raving about how Ayton out played Bagley. And I didn't keep track of head to head minutes in that game, but Ayton scored a bulk of his points after Bagley fouled out of the game and most within the last 6 minutes of that game. Up until that point, I had been pleasantly surprised by Bagley's defense on Ayton.
I love the big man tandem we have in WCS and Bagley. It's pretty good right now with the potential to get a lot better as Marvin gains experience and improves. There's not many teams out there with 2 bigs as athletic and skilled and that can run like those two.
Everyone knows I've been on the WCS bandwagon since day 1 and have constantly defended him against naysayers. Many are thinking its the 'contract year' that's motivating Willie. While there surely is some truth to that, many of us have also been preaching patience because it can often take several years for bigs to develop. Marc Gasol's name was brought up many times in support. So here we are in YR4 and WCS is looking every bit the player we had hoped he would be -- sans the rim protection. But he's so good switching and defending smaller players that I'm not soured by that.
As for Bagley, I made it known I was all-in for Luka and was disappointed by Vlade's decision to take Marvin instead. But through 14 games, I've seen enough of Bags to become excited by his potential and fit with this roster. I've already seen some growth in his game already.
The best part, IMO, is that the KINGS haven't had to rely upon him early on (which eases a lot of pressure off him) and he's been able to get his feet wet and fit in and help where he can. Long term, I think the team's rebounding will improve as Marvin grows (he's a good rebounder on both ends) and he's also a guy that will eventually be a legit threat in the post. His strengths compliment Willie's weaknesses IMO.
And, boy, can both guys run like a gazelle! Very important considering who the PG is. Lastly, I also see a lot of potential in Bagley on the defensive end. He's such a good athlete and, like De'Aaron Fox (and the entire core, really), such a competitive, smart player that I can't see him not improving in that area.
Everyone knows I've been on the WCS bandwagon since day 1 and have constantly defended him against naysayers. Many are thinking its the 'contract year' that's motivating Willie. While there surely is some truth to that, many of us have also been preaching patience because it can often take several years for bigs to develop. Marc Gasol's name was brought up many times in support. So here we are in YR4 and WCS is looking every bit the player we had hoped he would be -- sans the rim protection. But he's so good switching and defending smaller players that I'm not soured by that.
As for Bagley, I made it known I was all-in for Luka and was disappointed by Vlade's decision to take Marvin instead. But through 14 games, I've seen enough of Bags to become excited by his potential and fit with this roster. I've already seen some growth in his game already.
The best part, IMO, is that the KINGS haven't had to rely upon him early on (which eases a lot of pressure off him) and he's been able to get his feet wet and fit in and help where he can. Long term, I think the team's rebounding will improve as Marvin grows (he's a good rebounder on both ends) and he's also a guy that will eventually be a legit threat in the post. His strengths compliment Willie's weaknesses IMO.
And, boy, can both guys run like a gazelle! Very important considering who the PG is. Lastly, I also see a lot of potential in Bagley on the defensive end. He's such a good athlete and, like De'Aaron Fox (and the entire core, really), such a competitive, smart player that I can't see him not improving in that area.
https://stats.nba.com/players/defensive-impact/?CF=GP*GE*5EF_RIM_FGA*GE*5&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=DEF_RIM_FG_PCT&dir=-1
And the rebounding. Not to repeat Cojc, but its my exact sentiment. How do you pay a center who is a bit of a tweener, and you don't have confidence can hang with the big boys defensively, cover the guards who penetrate. an who is part of the rebounding/rim problem this team has? Can we get to the point where that is serviceable, or not an issue? Please?
I understand the team is doing well, he's fitting in with the pace and style, and he's made tremendous strides on O. But there is the school of thought that Fox/Buddy are a franchise backcourt and could make a random athletic big look better, who would provide better paint presence.
We'll see, but he is a restricted FA. I'm not sure the discussion about what we should pay him, instead of watching what others will pay him and match if it makes sense
EF_RIM_FGA*GE*5&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=DEF_RIM_FG_PCT&dir=-1And the rebounding. Not to repeat Cojc, but its my exact sentiment. How do you pay a center who is a bit of a tweener, and you don't have confidence can hang with the big boys defensively, cover the guards who penetrate. an who is part of the rebounding/rim problem this team has? Can we get to the point where that is serviceable, or not an issue? Please?
I understand the team is doing well, he's fitting in with the pace and style, and he's made tremendous strides on O. But there is the school of thought that Fox/Buddy are a franchise backcourt and could make a random athletic big look better, who would provide better paint presence.
We'll see, but he is a restricted FA. I'm not sure the discussion about what we should pay him, instead of watching what others will pay him and match if it makes sense
I agree with you on that! (bolded). I don't think I'm going to bother seeing if Towns' 19 rebounds occurred when WCS was not on the floor, but I appreciate your refining of the head-to-head analysis. Another factor in that OKC game was WCS got into foul trouble. As far as the fact the proposition that there are factors other than rebounding that contribute to winning, that goes without saying.
Interesting article on how Willie's rim running helps with the team's spacing: http://truckthoughts.com/blog/2018/11/13/lht7vla0uuqn5org4g25kgcbv0pjz6
What were the issues in the first quarter. Gasol hardly scored in the first quarter. The issue was Bjelica trying to guard Jaren Jackson. Jackson was going through, around, and over Bjelica. My issue with Willie on Gasol came in the 2nd half when he kept playing off of him to help and Gasol started hitting wide open three's. So my issue wasn't that Willie couldn't guard Gasol, it was that at times, he didn't guard Gasol.
WCS was dominated by Gasol in this game. Bjelica was dominated by Jackson. End of story.
It's an interesting take, because my issue in the Houston game tonight was not that WCS could not guard Capela, but that he did not guard Capela. Maybe he should actually do what in fact he can do and not do what he cannot do.
It's an interesting take, because my issue in the Houston game tonight was not that WCS could not guard Capela, but that he did not guard Capela. Maybe he should actually do what in fact he can do and not do what he cannot do.
My honest opinion on Willie, and tonight's game, I thought he was on drugs! He wasn't the only player that played poorly, but he's been in the league for three years and is in his 4th season. I can excuse Bagley for missing Capela on the P&R, but not Willie. he looked like he was in a fog tonight. Not only on the defensive end, but offensively he was just stumbling around, missing chippy's at the rim. I don't know what his problem was, and to be honest, it probably wouldn't have helped anyway, but he was downright terrible. And from his expression on the bench, I'm sure he knows it.
One further thought. With the report that Joerger may be in trouble with the front office, I wonder what effect that may have had on the team. Not only in tonight's game, but in last nights game as well. The just didn't look like the same team to me. I noticed in last nights game that when Giles came out of the game and he was doing the mandatory hand slaps past the bench, he pulled his hand away from Bjelica when he went past him. I thought it was strange at the time, but then, Bjelica is the one taking some of his minutes. Hope I'm wrong about the feeling I'm getting.
One further thought. With the report that Joerger may be in trouble with the front office, I wonder what effect that may have had on the team. Not only in tonight's game, but in last nights game as well. The just didn't look like the same team to me. I noticed in last nights game that when Giles came out of the game and he was doing the mandatory hand slaps past the bench, he pulled his hand away from Bjelica when he went past him. I thought it was strange at the time, but then, Bjelica is the one taking some of his minutes. Hope I'm wrong about the feeling I'm getting.
Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox both have 8 blocks this season.
Willie Cauley-Stein, the seven footer that the Kings drafted for defense, also has 8
He's having his "best season" but his defense, rebounding and blocks are completely unacceptable. I was on the verge of the side of paying him this off season but maaaan he sucks at everything other than rim running. I've seen enough of him refusing to jump up to block or alter shots. He literally only jumps on offense.
Willie Cauley-Stein, the seven footer that the Kings drafted for defense, also has 8
He's having his "best season" but his defense, rebounding and blocks are completely unacceptable. I was on the verge of the side of paying him this off season but maaaan he sucks at everything other than rim running. I've seen enough of him refusing to jump up to block or alter shots. He literally only jumps on offense.
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Yes, this Yahoo article could depress the morale of this team. I think this is where Divac is strong - his ability to get the ship righted and cohesive. Another thing to keep in mind is that it's always easier to be a together team when you're winning, not when you're losing. The Kings were bound to have a bad patch sooner or later. Now their character will be tested. I'm expecting they'll do just fine.
As far as WCS is concerned, he's just got to get back to playing the right way, especially with all-out effort. Stop taking those wild shots he's been doing over the past few games. Those shots are as bad as turnovers. If he just gets back to what he does best and gives full effort, he'll do fine. If not, then it's a downward trend.
As far as WCS is concerned, he's just got to get back to playing the right way, especially with all-out effort. Stop taking those wild shots he's been doing over the past few games. Those shots are as bad as turnovers. If he just gets back to what he does best and gives full effort, he'll do fine. If not, then it's a downward trend.