Based on this poll I think 95% of fans are going to be disappointed when we draft Marvin Bagley. Bagley is going to be the pick. I think fans have been thinking about this wrong. I have been guilty of this to a degree, in a different way, though. I've had Bagley pegged at #2 the whole time. This is what I think I missed and fans missed. I had an epiphany, or maybe just going down another rabbit hole between now and June 21.
The presumption is if the Suns don't take Ayton we will take him is so valuable. I don't think that is the safest presumption. I'd take him but that is besides the point. The Boogie Experience left scars. The GM does not want a repeat of that ordeal. The Kings hitched their wagon to a guy who said he was team-first then acted in opposite manner. Avoiding a repeat of this type of prima donna necessitates meeting these guys looking them in the eye and knowing they can be part of the family. You have to suss them out, know they will fit culture, put team and effort over touches. Ayton does not want to come to town? Fine, you are off the list. Have a nice career somewhere else.
Here's where I have adjusted my thought process by trying to get into the mind of the decision makers. The Kings are considering Luka and Porter in the unlikely event the Suns take Bagley. The Kings are formulating a Plan B in the event that Plan A goes up in smoke. Of course ultimately we don't need to a Plan B. Plan A will be activated June 21. The Suns are taking Ayton. And we are taking Bagley. Book it:
- Bagley - combo forward
- Porter - combo forward
- Luka - combo forward
This is a slightly new way to look at these players. Who says Bagley is a center? He weighs 220 lbs. He is light on his feet. He has handles. He has a Euro Step. He can rebound and go. He has nice shot mechanics. He has a jab step, spin move and lethal first step. He can hang as a defender on the perimeter more than the paint to whom he will give up 20-30 pounds. It is a false premise to label this guy a center then discount him because his defensive ability as a center is dubious. This is where fans and draft previews are wrong. By contrast I think Giles is more suited to being a banger in the paint. He's stronger, longer and I think 20-30 pounds heavier.
If you view Bagley correctly as a combo forward with more of a perimeter game than displayed at Duke, you see how he will fit perfectly with our three man core of Fox, Buddy and Boggy. When I think of combo forwards, Tobias Harris, Jeff Green, Danillo Gallinari and Dirk Nowitski come to mind. I am not saying Bagley has their game, or even that their talents are similar. I am talking about their physical profile and mobility about the floor. If you mischaracterize Bagley with guys like KAT and Marc Gasol, it is easy to sour on him as a prospect.
There are a few other points I want to touch on. The bottom line is I now view Luka and Porter as contingents in the event Bagley goes #1, since Ayton is not a viable proposition, despite his immense talent. Ultimately indulging in these scenarios is irrelevant since Ayton will go #1 and we will secure our top target. I do not have confidence in the primary decision maker. He's a joke. But we have enough guys around him I respect like Brandon Williams and Elston Turner and Bobby Jackson. There is enough smart basketball minds in the room to do the smart thing. This is where I was previously wavering but come to my sense. It doesn't take a genius to get this right. The smart move is Bagley and always has been. The team will make the smart move. Set aside the hype and noise, and this is easy to see.