Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)
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You would think with Kings in attendance Luka would put on more of a show and make case for that 4 year / 30 M he can get as the #2 pick. I agree with your assessment. Those jump passes are fundamentally unsound. Its not a good idea to leave your feet then decide where you want to pass. You can get away with that against lesser competition not the NBA. He also puts his palm under the ball on his dribble. Good defenders and strict refs are not going to let him get away with that. Leave the ball hanging and a good defender will pounce. They will deflect the ball or force you to pick up your dribble. Luka will also pass before the defense commits to him. This is a Rubio / Lonzo type of play. He drives the lane or had the advantage in the post and passes before he has to. This is not exploiting your unguarded advantage. You either lack the confidence or skill or aggressiveness or mindset or all of the above to execute. He is kind of spraying his shot too. He did not seem to have pep in his step. The opponent was not that good. His team cruised to the win. Maybe he was bored because he played that way. Overall it was uninspired effort. He didn't help his draft position with this game.
Exactly. I don’t know how to categorize the phenomenon around the #2 pick for us. Are we experiencing cognotive dissonance where some Kings fans are not able to comprehend getting one of the top 2 prospects, and are mentally chasing the kind of gambles we’re used to at #7 or #8? Are they just Celtics trolls hoping to jedi mind trick the organization into taking a huge project at #2 so that our 2019 pick has more value? I mean, we have guys advocating for Bamba and MPJ at #2...just crazy.
Here is a good breakdown of Luka Doncic strengths and weaknesses 
:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...he-most-polished-european-teen-prospect-ever/
:https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...he-most-polished-european-teen-prospect-ever/
Dude, this guy is so far from a no brainer at #2. We're talking Gordon Hayward upside, that's not a typical #2 overall type of pick. I won't be shocked if he goes to us at two but I will be mildly surprised. The thing he has going in his favor is the position he plays. I don't know if we want a big.
Yeah. I wonder if it has something to so with not having your board set before the lottery. I mean, the most probably start scouting in march and it looked like the Kings were going to pick at 6/7, again missing the obvious high potentials. Then you start talking yourself into the Mo Bambas and MPJs of the world. And once the team jumped in the lottery, high familiarity with these prospects, conformation bias and Luka playing his worst stretch of basketball, probably do the rest.
We're actually seeing the same with the Kings FO and MPJ.
We're actually seeing the same with the Kings FO and MPJ.
Bigger, stronger, Hayward with elite passing ability. I'd say that is worthy of number 2 pick.
Other guys have higher upsides though, I'll concede that. Luka is probably the "safe" pick, but I think his ceiling is higher than people want to give him credit for. Dude could absolutely end up a 20+/7/7 player.
Luka is my guy but I'm probably going to be hyped for whoever we end up with. Jumping from 7 to 2 in a 5 player draft was huge.
Other guys have higher upsides though, I'll concede that. Luka is probably the "safe" pick, but I think his ceiling is higher than people want to give him credit for. Dude could absolutely end up a 20+/7/7 player.
Luka is my guy but I'm probably going to be hyped for whoever we end up with. Jumping from 7 to 2 in a 5 player draft was huge.
In all honestly, the way I read the tea leaves is that Phoenix' FO wants Ayton but their owner wants Doncic. Hence Suns FO releases these Doncic bashing scouting reports and praises Ayton to make the owner second guess his decision. Then Kings and Hawks leak that they are also not high on Doncic to further create the narrative that Doncic is falling. Since this report came out, nearly every media side is adjusting their mock. As a result, Kings get Doncic and Hawks get their guy at three.
(I wouldnt be surprised to learn that Kings FO and Suns FO, maybe even the Hawks are actually working togehter at this.)
Obviously this could be total BS but so far this seems to make the most sense to me.
(I wouldnt be surprised to learn that Kings FO and Suns FO, maybe even the Hawks are actually working togehter at this.)
Obviously this could be total BS but so far this seems to make the most sense to me.
The more I study Luka's game and the more I think about his fit with De'Aaron and Boggy the less I like it, and the more I think my initial (negative) impressions were accurate. Luka needs to be a great shooter to be a great player. He needs to be an aggressive scorer. He needs to make 40% of his threes. I saw a guy today who was spraying shots and passed the ball before the defense committed to him. I saw a guy who palms the ball on his dribble, makes jump passes, and isn't particularly interested in running the floor hard. Say what you want about Bagley but that guy changes ends before anyone on the floor. As long as Brandon Williams as a say in the matter, and as long as Vivek does not intervene with the global marketing plan around Luka, something I would not put past him, I think the decision will come down to Bamba or Bagley. It is a coin toss and I think we will be happy with either player. And NO way do the Suns take Doncic. No way. Ayton is their guy.
Man, you're scaring me. I change my previous stands to being a happy camper as long as it is not Bamba.
In all seriousness, if Doncic is not in the FOs consideration, why would both Vlade and Vivek fly to Europe and watch the game last night?
If it was only Vlade maybe to you could argue to give the impression that you really wants him to trick some other GM. But Vivek? I can't see that. I guess Doncic is at least considered. Whether he will be the pick we will see.
In all seriousness, if Doncic is not in the FOs consideration, why would both Vlade and Vivek fly to Europe and watch the game last night?
If it was only Vlade maybe to you could argue to give the impression that you really wants him to trick some other GM. But Vivek? I can't see that. I guess Doncic is at least considered. Whether he will be the pick we will see.
They are just doing their due diligence. And if they throw teams off the scent of their true intentions in the process, thats okay too. As far as Vivek tagging along, it is what semi-retired billionaires do. They probably flew on his private jet. He went to Chicago for the lottery too. I think he just wants to be involved in the process and he loves the game. Don't let me scare you into thinking they are not taking Luka. I think Vlade is capable of anything left to his own devices and bias, including Porter Jr. I just hope Brandon Williams is the persuasive voice of the reason. Then it will be Bagley or Bamba.
We're only talking about Gordon Hayward upside because random people on the internet are saying that's who he'll be. Their games are completely different (Hayward was (prior to horrific ankle injury) a really really good athlete and much more of an off-the-ball dude that Doncic) and the main reason Doncic and Hayward seem to be getting compared is that they're both white dudes with good BBIQ who play small forward. In addition to Hayward, the dude's been compared to Larry Bird and James Harden, which is probably better than "Gordon Hayward (who's an All-Star by the way so let's stop acting like it'd be a bad thing to draft a dude like him) upside". The past season in Europe, Madrid was using Luka like a 6'8" SF version of the latter and that's more of who I see him becoming, complete with defensive misgivings.
Marvin Bagley? Derrick Coke Machine Williams
Mo Bamba? Hasheem Thabeet.
Jaren Jackson? A less agressive Myles Turner.
Are any of these comparisons fair? No. Are any of these comparisons out of the question? Probably not but the fact I said them doesn't mean they automatically deserve weight.
Marvin Bagley? Derrick Coke Machine Williams
Mo Bamba? Hasheem Thabeet.
Jaren Jackson? A less agressive Myles Turner.
Are any of these comparisons fair? No. Are any of these comparisons out of the question? Probably not but the fact I said them doesn't mean they automatically deserve weight.
There is nothing wrong with a jump pass. LeBron does it quite a bit. Especially on corner kick out threes. That is one of those old school fake bad fundamentals.
Doncic has great shooting fundamentals. It’s only a matter of time before he’s a deadeye shooter in the nba.
We’re talking about a big wing that has potential as an elite playmaker and scorer... That is not something you pass on when the opportunity arises.
Doncic has great shooting fundamentals. It’s only a matter of time before he’s a deadeye shooter in the nba.
We’re talking about a big wing that has potential as an elite playmaker and scorer... That is not something you pass on when the opportunity arises.
Some people are talking about Gordon Hayward upside. Those people are probably wrong though. There has never been a prospect in the Euroleague who is this accomplished at this age. I don't know if you remember what it was like to see LeBron James play in High School but Luka right now is the Euroleague equivalent of LeBron in America at that age. We have no basis for comparison because it's never happened before. He's not as athletic of course but he's got the same passing instincts and wise beyond his years mastery of the game. If you're the type of person to find the closest player you can think of who superficially matches a prospect than maybe you're nervous that we haven't had a European born superstar yet but think about this...
Dirk Nowitzki has had a 20 year career playing for the same team. He's a 13 time All Star, won a league MVP award, a championship, a Finals MVP, and been selected to an All-NBA team 12 times. That's a no doubt Hall of Fame career. Luka is better than Dirk was at his age. He's the most dominant player in his league right now! Is that a guarantee of anything regarding his NBA future? Obviously not. But as far as his potential is concerned? I feel pretty good about it! If this kid were born in America he'd be nicknamed Basketball Jesus and he'd already have a 500 million dollar Nike contract. Frankly I think the way he's being treated by all these draft "experts" right now is pretty insulting. Is there a 19 year old in this draft who doesn't have things to work on before they'll be a good defender in the NBA? There never is. Why is it with Doncic people watch the tape looking for reasons why he's going to fail?
Here's one more example: I was a huge Brandon Jennings fan. He was the Prep Player of the Year after he average 35 points per game his senior year in High School. He was balling at Compton HS and I'd recently moved to LA to go to USC. I actually think I might have played him one-on-one on the outdoor court there before I knew who he was (he destroyed me obviously and I don't think he was really trying -- or maybe it was just a different lefty who looked a lot like him ). That's not the point though, the point is he was damn good. He skipped college and spent a year in the Euroleague at age 18, averaging 5.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.5 steals in 17.0 minutes per game for Lottomatica Roma in Italy. Then he came into the NBA and was an instant star, dropping 55 points on Golden State in just the 7th game of his NBA career and making the All Rookie team along with Tyreke and Steph.
Now his career did more or less plateaue after that (and then an Achilles injury killed it when he was leading a playoff team in Detroit) but the point is, anyone writing off Luka's dominance in the Euroleague doesn't have a clue what they're talking about. Here's a kid Jennings who was at the top of his High School class (I would have taken him first overall in the draft that year) and he had trouble adjusting to the physicality of the Euroleague. Again that proves nothing, every player is unique. But I hope it at least recontextualizes a little bit the magnitude of Luka's accomplishment. We question sometimes if an elite college player is just dominating because they're older and more developed but if someone is among the youngest players in their league and still dominates games? Those players have an almost 100% success rate. Yeah there was Mike Beasley but his problems weren't basketball related. Are there any other examples of Freshman phenoms completely wiping out in the NBA? The low ceiling stuff is laughably absurd in the face of what this kid has already accomplished.
Dirk Nowitzki has had a 20 year career playing for the same team. He's a 13 time All Star, won a league MVP award, a championship, a Finals MVP, and been selected to an All-NBA team 12 times. That's a no doubt Hall of Fame career. Luka is better than Dirk was at his age. He's the most dominant player in his league right now! Is that a guarantee of anything regarding his NBA future? Obviously not. But as far as his potential is concerned? I feel pretty good about it! If this kid were born in America he'd be nicknamed Basketball Jesus and he'd already have a 500 million dollar Nike contract. Frankly I think the way he's being treated by all these draft "experts" right now is pretty insulting. Is there a 19 year old in this draft who doesn't have things to work on before they'll be a good defender in the NBA? There never is. Why is it with Doncic people watch the tape looking for reasons why he's going to fail?
Here's one more example: I was a huge Brandon Jennings fan. He was the Prep Player of the Year after he average 35 points per game his senior year in High School. He was balling at Compton HS and I'd recently moved to LA to go to USC. I actually think I might have played him one-on-one on the outdoor court there before I knew who he was (he destroyed me obviously and I don't think he was really trying -- or maybe it was just a different lefty who looked a lot like him ). That's not the point though, the point is he was damn good. He skipped college and spent a year in the Euroleague at age 18, averaging 5.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.5 steals in 17.0 minutes per game for Lottomatica Roma in Italy. Then he came into the NBA and was an instant star, dropping 55 points on Golden State in just the 7th game of his NBA career and making the All Rookie team along with Tyreke and Steph.
Now his career did more or less plateaue after that (and then an Achilles injury killed it when he was leading a playoff team in Detroit) but the point is, anyone writing off Luka's dominance in the Euroleague doesn't have a clue what they're talking about. Here's a kid Jennings who was at the top of his High School class (I would have taken him first overall in the draft that year) and he had trouble adjusting to the physicality of the Euroleague. Again that proves nothing, every player is unique. But I hope it at least recontextualizes a little bit the magnitude of Luka's accomplishment. We question sometimes if an elite college player is just dominating because they're older and more developed but if someone is among the youngest players in their league and still dominates games? Those players have an almost 100% success rate. Yeah there was Mike Beasley but his problems weren't basketball related. Are there any other examples of Freshman phenoms completely wiping out in the NBA? The low ceiling stuff is laughably absurd in the face of what this kid has already accomplished.
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