Draft tie-breaker - We're #8!

#1
For anyone wondering, I believe the drawing to determine the tie breaker between tied teams for the NBA draft will occur on Friday afternoon.

This will be huge for the kings.

We can pick between #8-10. If they get 8 or 9, our pick should be safe. If we lose the tie breaker and drop to 10, we will be in danger of losing our pick, if someone behind us wins a top 3 spot in the lotto.

Let's all cross our fingers for the #8 or #9 in the tiebreaker!
 
#2
Tie break is between Kings, Nuggets and Bucks right? Has anyone worked out the odds for each tiebreak scenario? It's mathematically low odds that we lose the pick I hope?!

For anyone wondering, I believe the drawing to determine the tie breaker between tied teams for the NBA draft will occur on Friday afternoon.

This will be huge for the kings.

We can pick between #8-10. If they get 8 or 9, our pick should be safe. If we lose the tie breaker and drop to 10, we will be in danger of losing our pick, if someone behind us wins a top 3 spot in the lotto.

Let's all cross our fingers for the #8 or #9 in the tiebreaker!
 
#4
Thanks for letting us know. I was worried we'd have to wait until lottery day potentially. Can speculate on the draft/trades now easier. And like Kingsfansince85 said, I fully expect to get the 10th and then get screwed.
 
#5
Thanks for letting us know. I was worried we'd have to wait until lottery day potentially. Can speculate on the draft/trades now easier. And like Kingsfansince85 said, I fully expect to get the 10th and then get screwed.
Once again, be hopeful. We might draw the 8th spot then get drawn no. 1 in the lottery. I'd love to feel sorry for all the teams that lost out.
 
#6
At this point I almost want to just convey this pick so we know for sure we get our first rounder next year. 8 or 9 seems to be right outside of where the best prospects are.

Once again, be hopeful. We might draw the 8th spot then get drawn no. 1 in the lottery. I'd love to feel sorry for all the teams that lost out.
And then we would automatically lose that #1 pick to Philly o_O

EDIT: I meant the right to pick at #1.
 
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#10
For anyone wondering, I believe the drawing to determine the tie breaker between tied teams for the NBA draft will occur on Friday afternoon.

This will be huge for the kings.

We can pick between #8-10. If they get 8 or 9, our pick should be safe. If we lose the tie breaker and drop to 10, we will be in danger of losing our pick, if someone behind us wins a top 3 spot in the lotto.

Let's all cross our fingers for the #8 or #9 in the tiebreaker!
This is what we get for beating the Suns. Consider it a parting gift from Karl. If he plays Duje 25 minutes, and why not, and Moreland 20 minutes, and why not, then we probably lose by 10-15 points. But Karl was not about to ride shotgun in Vlade's tank mobile. His final win total in way is all he has to hold onto as his last gig in the NBA and that was more important to him going off into the sunset than leaving team in a better place this summer.

I can't say I blame him and at same time think he could have rewarded the kids who watched all season. Stubborn until the end. That's our George.

I said last week Karl had to be fired the day after the season ended so we could get a head start on teams potentially looking to fill vacancies, instead of dragging out the inevitable, so glad common sense and consensus prevailed. The next point is: This is Day 1 of the coaching search but only officially. Vlade knew he was getting rid of this guy for weeks if not months. So he should have given this a fair amount of thought about course of action to take and preliminary work independent of reaching out to guys directly. I wish I could say I had confidence in Vlade but answers like this this don't inspire confidence:

Q: Is there a type of philosophy (you want in a new coach)?
A: Not really. Today you can see how the teams play. Very similar. (He then when on to say a coach should adopt his philosophy to personnel but like all his answers there is little substance.)

Then there was this....

Q: Does this mean you are not going to trade Cousins?
A: I said we are not going to talk about players because our focus is to find a new coach.

Interesting he did not assert they were building around Boogie. He had chance to shut down trade rumors but chose not to. To me it is telling following the one game suspension that his sentiment maybe has shifted.

I also think what Vlade does with Rondo is going to determine what kind of GM he is going to be. Rondo was a guy who made sense last summer on team that had worst assist rate in NBA and to pair with Boogie for easy scores. It worked okay to pretty good but ultimately it failed. The ball dominance with which Rondo plays is contrary to the best teams Vlade played on as a King. So if he is interested in returning to those glory days of past with a new collection of guys who pass and shoot and back door opponents to death.....Rondo does NOT fit.

Because Rondo passes when it leads to a basket. He doesn't want a hockey assist. I think Danny Ainge saw this and knew his guys need their touches to feel involved and that proved to be a bold stroke, landing them Jae Crowder IIRC. Where Rondo would have made more sense going forward is if his presence elevated Boogie's efficiency to 56% to 58% TS with a PG getting his 3-4 easy scores per game. That happened to degree but Cousins scoring efficiency actually regressed.

It is a little unfair because Boogie was on pretty good roll to end the season, before all the "rest" games, but he finished at 53.8% TS. which is 0.7% worse than without Rondo two seasons ago. Boogie became a better player this season with Karl opening up his game and varying his point of high attack with pick and roll and early offense, but it did NOT translate to better efficiency.

I go back and forth on Ben and I do the same with Rondo. Where I am at now is that Ben deserves one more summer to get his strength were he needs it to be to hold his position on the floor, then maybe he finally turns a corner, and besides Ben has minimal trade value (9 PER)....and it is probably best to wish Rondo well and move on. I am certainly not comfortable paying him money that could be used to entice Ryan Anderson. Rondo's defense isn't going to get appreciably better and he holds the ball too much with a few too many turnovers to justify holding it as much as he does. 278 turnovers was a career high for him almost 4 per game.....this number and our overall record are not mutually exclusive stats.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#11
Tie break is between Kings, Nuggets and Bucks right? Has anyone worked out the odds for each tiebreak scenario? It's mathematically low odds that we lose the pick I hope?!
Setting aside all the doom and gloom nonsense in this thread, here is out it works out.

1) we have a 33% chance of getting the 10th spot in the lottery, a 33% chance at the 9th spot in the lottery, and a 33% chance at the 8th spot in the lottery/

2) the lottery odds (odds to move into the Top 3) for the 8th to 14th spots are:

8th 6.8%
9th 6.8%
10th 6.5%
11th 2.9%
12th 2.5%
13th 2.2%
14th 1.8%

3) Thus if you have the 10th spot, your odds of being pushed back to #11 or worse are 2.9+2.5+2.2+1.8 = 9.4%
If you have the 9th spot your odds of being dumped to #10 are 9.4% + 6.5% = 15.9%. But your odds of getting kicked all the way to 11 are maybe 2% or so (its not just 15.9% x 15.9% because one of the 5 teams behind you has already jumped you, so it would be the odds of the remaining teams, which depend on which team jumped you. I think that would range from 2.2% if the first team that jumped you was the #14 team, down to 1.5% if the first team that jumped you was the #10 team. Anyway:

if we are #10 = 9.4% chance to lose our pick
if we are #9 = 2.0% (roughly) chance to lose our pick
if we are #8 = infinitessimal chance. Tenths of a percentage point. Maybe 1 in 500 chance or some such.

4) Hence it would be much better to win that coin flip and be safe. Given we have a 1/3 chance to be in the 10th, 9th or 8th spot after the coin clip our overall chances of losing the pick would be roughly:
.333 x 9.4 + .333 x 2.0 + .333 x 0.0 (essentially) = 3.796% chance, and we can round that to 3.8% since the chance at the 8th spot is not really 0.


If you want the real numbers, petition Capt. Fact. to get his geek on, but roughly we should keep the pick 96.2% of the time, and lose it 3.8% of the time.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#12
The worst possible scenario will happen. Bookmark it. Such is life for a Kingsfan.

That said, it will be nice to finally be free of that albatross.
Will it though? Even if we give Chicago our pick this year, we still owe swap rights next year to Philly and a future pick that could last until 2019. So we still can't trade a future pick until 2020 whether Chicago gets this pick or not. At least if we keep our pick this year we can rebuild the team with a better coach and hope for a playoff season next year, at which point losing the pick to Chicago wouldn't really hurt that badly.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#13
3) Thus if you have the 10th spot, your odds of being pushed back to #11 or worse are 2.9+2.5+2.2+1.8 = 9.4%

...

If you want the real numbers, petition Capt. Fact. to get his geek on, but roughly we should keep the pick 96.2% of the time, and lose it 3.8% of the time.
Oh, Brick. You just had to make me do this, didn't you? :p

Adding these probabilities is not the correct way to do it. I can't go into a full-on explanation, but think of it this way - if you add up the probabilities of all 14 teams of moving into the top three, what do you get? You get 300%. Doesn't work.

However, you CAN add horizontally across the rows in this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft#Draft_lottery

So...

if we are #10 = 8.9% chance to lose our pick
if we are #9 = 0.5% chance to lose our pick
if we are #8 = less than 0.05% chance to lose our pick

Divide each of those by three and add those up (again, there addition does work) and the chance we lose our pick, as of right now, is about 3.15%, and thus a 96.85% chance of keeping it. Obviously that value will be updated tomorrow when the tie is broken.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#15
Oh, Brick. You just had to make me do this, didn't you? :p

Adding these probabilities is not the correct way to do it. I can't go into a full-on explanation, but think of it this way - if you add up the probabilities of all 14 teams of moving into the top three, what do you get? You get 300%. Doesn't work.

However, you CAN add horizontally across the rows in this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft#Draft_lottery

So...

if we are #10 = 8.9% chance to lose our pick
if we are #9 = 0.5% chance to lose our pick
if we are #8 = less than 0.05% chance to lose our pick

Divide each of those by three and add those up (again, there addition does work) and the chance we lose our pick, as of right now, is about 3.15%, and thus a 96.85% chance of keeping it. Obviously that value will be updated tomorrow when the tie is broken.

Close enough. :p
 

Entity

Hall of Famer
#18
At this point I almost want to just convey this pick so we know for sure we get our first rounder next year. 8 or 9 seems to be right outside of where the best prospects are.



And then we would automatically lose that #1 pick to Philly o_O
You realize philly don't just get our pick right? They have right to swap picks. They would only do that if they have rose pick than us. They are actually worse team than us year after year so I think we are safe from that until 2019
 
#19
I think Philly can get no worse that the 4th pick. So even if the worst happens (Kings win the lottery and Philly swaps picks) the Kings still get the 4th pick. Dunn or Heild is not too bad of a consolation prize:)
 
#21
Oh, Brick. You just had to make me do this, didn't you? :p

Adding these probabilities is not the correct way to do it. I can't go into a full-on explanation, but think of it this way - if you add up the probabilities of all 14 teams of moving into the top three, what do you get? You get 300%. Doesn't work.

However, you CAN add horizontally across the rows in this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft#Draft_lottery

So...

if we are #10 = 8.9% chance to lose our pick
if we are #9 = 0.5% chance to lose our pick
if we are #8 = less than 0.05% chance to lose our pick

Divide each of those by three and add those up (again, there addition does work) and the chance we lose our pick, as of right now, is about 3.15%, and thus a 96.85% chance of keeping it. Obviously that value will be updated tomorrow when the tie is broken.
Do all those odds subtract the chance that while someone jumps us, we ALSO might jump?
 
#22
Setting aside all the doom and gloom nonsense in this thread, here is out it works out.

1) we have a 33% chance of getting the 10th spot in the lottery, a 33% chance at the 9th spot in the lottery, and a 33% chance at the 8th spot in the lottery/

2) the lottery odds (odds to move into the Top 3) for the 8th to 14th spots are:

8th 6.8%
9th 6.8%
10th 6.5%
11th 2.9%
12th 2.5%
13th 2.2%
14th 1.8%

3) Thus if you have the 10th spot, your odds of being pushed back to #11 or worse are 2.9+2.5+2.2+1.8 = 9.4%
If you have the 9th spot your odds of being dumped to #10 are 9.4% + 6.5% = 15.9%. But your odds of getting kicked all the way to 11 are maybe 2% or so (its not just 15.9% x 15.9% because one of the 5 teams behind you has already jumped you, so it would be the odds of the remaining teams, which depend on which team jumped you. I think that would range from 2.2% if the first team that jumped you was the #14 team, down to 1.5% if the first team that jumped you was the #10 team. Anyway:

if we are #10 = 9.4% chance to lose our pick
if we are #9 = 2.0% (roughly) chance to lose our pick
if we are #8 = infinitessimal chance. Tenths of a percentage point. Maybe 1 in 500 chance or some such.

4) Hence it would be much better to win that coin flip and be safe. Given we have a 1/3 chance to be in the 10th, 9th or 8th spot after the coin clip our overall chances of losing the pick would be roughly:
.333 x 9.4 + .333 x 2.0 + .333 x 0.0 (essentially) = 3.796% chance, and we can round that to 3.8% since the chance at the 8th spot is not really 0.


If you want the real numbers, petition Capt. Fact. to get his geek on, but roughly we should keep the pick 96.2% of the time, and lose it 3.8% of the time.
Thanks Brick & Capt! Best of luck to the Kings tomorrow (or today..timezones confuse me)!
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#25
Do all those odds subtract the chance that while someone jumps us, we ALSO might jump?
I'm not sure I follow the question perfectly. If you meant to ask whether the odds quoted (and on the wiki page) take into account the probability that we might jump into the lottery, the answer is yes, they do.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#29
At this point I almost want to just convey this pick so we know for sure we get our first rounder next year. 8 or 9 seems to be right outside of where the best prospects are.



And then we would automatically lose that #1 pick to Philly o_O
We wouldn't lost the pick, we would lose the position. Just a wee bit of difference.